Charlie Cook is reporting today that the generic Congressional ballot is gaining some ground for Democrats in the final days. This is along with a dip of another point in Chimp's approval.
Bush Job Approval (RV) 37/53
Bush Job Approval (MLV) 37/57
Generic Cong Ballot (RV) 49/37
Generic Cong Ballot (MLV) 57/35
National Journal. October 24, 2006. Another week has gone by and little has changed. The Republican Party still seems to be headed toward a very tough election.
In the House, Republicans are most likely to see a net loss of 20 to 35 seats, and with it their majority. In the Senate, the GOP could lose at least four, but a five- or six-seat loss is more likely. A six-seat change tips the chamber into Democratic hands.
Could the situation change? Could the trajectory of this election be altered if the spotlight shifts from Iraq, congressional scandals, budget deficits, Hurricane Katrina, Terri Schiavo, stem-cell research and immigration onto something else, like terrorism or national security? Of course it could. In the time it takes to read this article, something could happen. A confrontation at sea involving a freighter going into or coming out of North Korea, for example, could dominate the news and the public consciousness. But unless something of that magnitude happens, we have to go with the situation as it stands.
While some stick to the assumption that this is a normal political environment, that this election is an "all politics is local" election like 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004, they do so in the face of an enormous amount of polling data that demonstrates a horrendous political climate -- the kind that one sees periodically in midterm elections like 1958, 1966, 1974 and 1994, and even occasionally in presidential election years like 1932, 1964 and 1980.
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Swinging Along
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