Contrary to the polls, I don't see Lieberman winning...

[kentuck]

His plans of maintaining those Democrats that voted for him in the primary and adding a large proportion of Republican voters sounds very good in theory. However, I think he will find that many of those Republican voters do not love him as much as they pretend. And many of those primary voters will switch to Lamont but it's doubtful that many of Lamont's voters will switch to Lieberman. The wild card this election season will be the "Independent" voters but they will not necessarily vote for Lieberman - they will vote for change.

I would bet that the Republican candidate has probably added 5-10% of the Republicans to his total with the last few debates. That is 5-10% that Lieberman was counting on. And Lieberman has lost some support since the primary within his own supporters. If that amounts to another 5-10%, we are probably looking at deadheat in CT in a couple of weeks. Every vote will count.

[rodeodance]

1. I generally believe in polls-with a grain of salt-so if I believe in the 'good'

polls-----ie leaning dem ----then i have to think that l. is, indeed, ahead whether i like it or not.

[WI_DEM]

2. Of course I hope you are right

but it appears that since the primary if you compare all the polls that Lieberman has gained support since the primary not lost. But let's hope that the 36% of Democrats that the polls claim support Lieberman will break towards Lamont--maybe a visit from "Big Dawg" Clinton would help that? And also, the 20-point lead among indies that Lieberman currently has, again according to polls, also gets closer. Then according to the Lamont camp they have a good ground campaign and hopefully will get their voters out to the polls on election day.

[AlinPA]

3. Your " they will not necessarily vote for Lieberman - they will vote for change

is my gut feel. And the votes will go to someone who can win. Not the R.

[aquart]

4. It's the dead heats that make me nervous.

Gonna be one long election night.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Here's some hope for you on that front...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/

Take a look at race ratings and click on "50-50 split". What this does is shows you what will happen if Dems and Repubs split those dead heats you're worried about right down the middle. In the Senate, a 50/50 split of the 5 tossups would yield a 1 seat Republican majority (though I don't know how they split the 5 races down the middle - who gets 3 seats and who gets 2?) In the House, a 50/50 split yields us a 4 seat majority. For Governorships, we'd be up 3.

The question is, given that the tide is in our favor, do you really see such a split?

Personally, I don't. I think we take Montana, Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee, which would net us 51 seats and the majority. And I'm not at all discounting Virginia, it's just that I see it as the least likely of the 5 to break our way. In the House, not that we need any more than the 50/50 split, but I definitely think we're going to win more than we'll lose there.

Even looking at this conservatively, we take the House, a 50-50 tie in the Senate (with Cheney as tie-breaker), and take the Governors too.

[aquart]

8. Thank you. I needed that.

I still won't actually breathe till it's over, but this is a great comfort.

I am especially interested in the Governors. If Bush goes bat loony with his imperial powers, we will need the individual states to tell him, uh...no.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. Believe me, I'm sweating it too.

But it's much better to be optimistic in these cases. People tend to vote for winners, and your optimism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's kind of fucked up that way, but time and time again, it turns out to be true.

Personally, I firmly believe that the enormous doubt we held by Democrats for Kerry's chances was a major contributing factor to his loss. We didn't have faith in him (or anyone else we might've nominated) because of the circumstances and fear of Rove.

[turbo_satan]

5. I have little faith in the electorate.

I think Lieberman will pick up a HUGE chunk of the R vote -- so much so, that it will swamp any gains Lamont picks up from Independents and Dems who dislike Lieberman. I'm not happy about it, but I think Lieberman will win by a wide margin and that he thought this through very carefully. So sad.

[Timmy5835]

10. With EVERYTHING that's going on......

.....what makes you think Repubs will even come out to vote? Expect low GOP turnout.

[ShortnFiery]

7. I hope you're right ... let's make you right? Everyone VOTE! n/t

[Joe for Clark]

11. Totally agree.

I so seriously doubt the republicans will hold as "Joe" voting block.

Not in their nature.

Joe

[roamer65]

12. The House is the real prize

the Senate would be icing on the cake. If we take the House, we control appropriations and John Conyers gets the House Judiciary committee!!!!
I think we already have the House.