Falling US gas prices boost Bush poll numbers

[Roon]

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Some Americans are suspicious that recent steep declines in gasoline prices might be the result of political manipulation, since the savings at the gas pump come just weeks before critical midterm US elections.

Earlier this year, news of record oil profits led many US consumers to believe that energy companies had deliberately kept prices artificially high to improve their bottom line.

Now gas prices have fallen for several consecutive weeks, and recent polls show that consumers have a new suspicion -- that the price break is meant to give a boost to a US president and Republican Congress who had fallen out of favor with voters
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060927/ts_alt_afp/usvotebushenergy_060927151903

[a la izquierda]

1. I was thinking about this the other day...

I'm glad I'm not the only one who needs to break out a tin foil hat.

[Demeter]

2. Surprise, Surprise...Gas Went Back Up

$2.19 today all over...they claimed we were having a gas war, when it got as "low" as $2.05 on Monday. Ann Arbor, Michigan

[Jackpine Radical]

3. YeeHaw, time to buy that Suburban ya always lusted for,

they been pretty cheap lately & now that our wunnerful Pressydint has got gas prices headed down due to the success of the Eye-Rack war, it's time ta git that big beast ya always wanted. Best git it afore us Bornagins is all raptured outta here. I think it sez right in tha Bible about how fallin gas prices is wunna tha signs that the End Times is upon us, so ya better git that big humpin SUV before it's too late. Ya gotta know Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeezus wants ya ta have it before ya join up wif Him in da sky.

[KansDem]

4. Bush must be jawboning the right Saudis...(nt)

[ncteechur]

7. You mean teabagging.

[Parche]

8. you

You mean Spooning........................haha

[hughee99]

5. Just wondering...

If "Big Oil" makes about the same in profits this quarter that it did when the prices were high, would that be evidence that they were not manipulating the price? Conversely, if they make far less this quarter, would it be evidence that they were willing to cut their profits for political purposes?

[libodem]

6. Taking bets that the price will be back up to $3.19 by X-mas

I been droning on and on that Bush's popularity is inversely proportional to the gas prices...just like a fulcrum! Those f-ing scum bags must be reading DU. Boy, this is the last time I'll be helping those bastids plan their election strategies. :(

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. This is kind of a myth. The poll numbers aren't moving.

[Telly Savalas]

13. Indeed. The article is pure bullshit.

Almost to the point where I feel compelled to use all-caps.

Given the margins of errors of these polls, one can't establish that there is truly a boost in support for Bush, and even if there is, it's not material.

The linkage of gas prices and poll numbers is just speculation. Politics is a chaotic system with thousands of factors impacting popular opinion. It's intellectual laziness to ascribe this percieved boost in Bush's numbers to any one factor when you aren't armed with regression analysis driven studies to back up your point. Gas prices have shot down in Canada too, but so has the support of the government:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13280

How do these "experts" explain this.

Finally the notion that multi-national oil companies are manipulating prices to influence the elections in a single country needs closer scrutinizing. Even if one assumes there is a link between prices at the pump and polling numbers, has anybody done a even crude cost-benefit analysis for price fixing? Oil companies would be taking a pretty big hit in their bottom line for several months. What's the probability that this makes the difference between the GOP holding one or both of the House and Senate? Even in the highly unlikely event that gasoline prices are the straw that breaks the camel's back, what are the chances a Democratic Congress will pass legislation which will do significant harm to the oil company's profits? Would they really recoup the money they are hypothetically losing right now? There are too many ifs here.

[otohara]

10. Tony Snow's Smirky Answer

tells me, they lying again!!

I have been amused by ... the attempt by some people to say that the president has been rigging gas prices, which would give him the kind of magisterial clout unknown to any other human being," he told reporters.

[Ksec]

11. Its obvious big oil works for republicans

Why else these historically high drops in prices a few weeks before midterms.

Sure prices drop in fall, but not this much. Not even close. And especially during a war in the middle east and all the pipeline problems in Alaska. Save the free market mumbo jumbo. That only works if you have really good news and there hasnt been any.

[fed-up]

12. Bush/Repukes BUYING VOTES at the pump-or PUMPING for VOTES nt