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The Cons got where they are by attacking the Liberal Party (who, in all fairness, are fat and corrupt, and needed a good attack). Now the Cons are going to be the source of the Prime Minister. They're the ones who are going to be in the hot-seat. They aren't going to have the time or the resources to attack, and they don't have the unity to advance a clear agenda. In any event, they're too extremist for most Canadians. The party is full of notjobs from the previous incarnations of the Conservative Party (the Canadian Alliance and the Reform Party).
If they had stayed in the fringes for another few years, they would have continued their attack, the Liberal Party will have been further worn-down and the possibility of a Conservative majority gov't would have been a real possibility.
But now, there will be a non-confidence vote within the year, and (I bet) another election in the Fall, or Spring 2007. After a year of not getting anything done, they will be the goats.
They'll be out. They'll have less seats than a taliban movie theatre.
As it stands tonight, they're going to have roughly 36% of the House of Commons.
That means that the centrist Liberals and leftist NDP will have roughly 30% and 17% respectively. Together, they will have 47% of the House. And the Bloq Quebecois are slightly Leftist (although to regionally-involved to be of any major importance), and they will not compromise with the Conservatives. They don't love the Liberals, either, but they would rather a Liberal Party influincing government than a Con party. They'll sit, content, with 10% of the House. The only way they could influence policy is if there was a huge rift between Liberals and NDP over a specific issue, and the Bloq's 10% could swing the balance.
And the independents (including one Green seat, I believe), for what it's worth, will not side with Harper.
The Liberals will have to work with the NDP, and to a lesser extent with the Bloq, to get anything done.
The Liberals are going to be very busy restructuring their ranks, and redefining their party's mandate. In the meantime, all they will do is block Conservative intitiatives in the House of Commons, and they need the NDP support to do so. Layton (NDP) is no fool; his party is probably the most defined ideologically, and if he can resist being corrupted by Liberal bribery, he will have a previously inimaginable influence in Canadian politics.
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