Declassify The Obvious (Orange County Register editorial)

[kurth]

Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Today's editorial: It's official – Iraq war has worsened terrorism
Classified intelligence assessment only confirms the obvious
The Orange County Register

The only news in the New York Times' story Sept. 24 about a classified National Intelligence Estimate that concludes, as one anonymous intelligence official put it, "that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse," is that the assessment is contained in a reasonably official document, acknowledged by the intelligence community leaders. Despite recent speeches filled with hope and bravado from the president and other administration officials, this has been blindingly obvious for months, even years. Those of us who opposed the unprovoked invasion of Iraq from the outset warned at the time that one of the likely results would be to increase the ability of al-Qaida and other terrorist-inclined organizations to recruit people willing to undertake acts of terrorism. As it became obvious that the United States, after what seemed for a while like a stirring military victory, was undertaking a long-term occupation of Iraq without a serious plan that took into account the ethnic and religious diversity of a country whose borders reflected British convenience after World War I rather than local history, the fears quickly became reality.

The U.S. occupation of Iraq, a predominantly Arab and Muslim country – and despite a brave and sometimes laudable attempt at a "unity" government made up of Iraqi citizens it must be classified as an occupation – has served as a recruiting poster for Islamic jihadists worldwide. Further, some foreign fighters have gone to Iraq to learn guerrilla tactics and be "blooded" in insurgent and terrorist techniques, then returned to their country with more knowledge and determination than before. In trying to defuse the leak of the document, even White House spokesman Tony Snow had to acknowledge that Iraq was among several factors that "fuel the spread of jihadism." He went on to point out that other factors, including "longstanding social grievances, slowness of the pace of reform, and the use of the Internet" were also important factors. The United States can do little to cure social grievances or speed up the pace of reform in the Middle East, nor can it uninvent the Internet.

No doubt if the United States withdrew from Iraq immediately, jihadists would take it as an admission of defeat, and it is possible – though not as inevitable as some would argue – that Iraq would become even more chaotic than it is now. But simply "staying the course" with current levels of U.S. troops seems unlikely to bring about victory (assuming there is a consensus on what constitutes victory, which there isn't). The Army is currently seeking to increase troop levels in Iraq, though only modestly, and seeking a 41 percent increase in its budget to pay for it.

So a near-obsession with deposing Saddam Hussein in Iraq has led to 2,700 Americans killed and about 20,000 wounded, and there's no vision of victory and no end in sight. And far from making us safer, as administration spokespeople insist, it has probably increased the worldwide threat of terrorism. Administration spokesmen and intelligence "czar" John Negroponte insist that the leaked information stresses only one aspect of U.S. intelligence agencies' assessment of the threat from jihadist terrorism, that the Iraq war is not as central to the increased danger as suggested. And it is likely, six weeks before an election, that some of those who leaked to the Times had political motives of seeking to discredit the administration. The best way to allow the American people to assess the various arguments is to declassify most of the 30-page document in question. The gist of it is already known. It would provide a good beginning for a reasonably honest discussion of the role of the Iraq war in U.S. foreign policy.

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/opinion/homepage/article_1287298.php

[Bluestar]

1. Wow--this from a right-wing newspaper--n/t