(On HuffPost) Gary Hart: The October Surprise

[Wetzelbill]

The October Surprise
Gary Hart

It should come as no surprise if the Bush Administration undertakes a preemptive war against Iran sometime before the November election.

Were these more normal times, this would be a stunning possibility, quickly dismissed by thoughtful people as dangerous, unprovoked, and out of keeping with our national character. But we do not live in normal times.

And we do not have a government much concerned with our national character. If anything, our current Administration is out to remake our national character into something it has never been.

The steps will be these: Air Force tankers will be deployed to fuel B-2 bombers, Navy cruise missile ships will be positioned at strategic points in the northern Indian Ocean and perhaps the Persian Gulf, unmanned drones will collect target data, and commando teams will refine those data. The latter two steps are already being taken.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-hart/the-october-surprise_b_30086.html

[LostInAnomie]

1. I don't know about that one

I could see it happening after the election if (God forbid) the Repukes stay in power. Before the election would be probably not work out too well for *. It would be a good way to bring up all the negative emotions people had about Iraq back up and only compounding the problem. It'll happen but I don't think it will before November.

[Ignacio Upton]

6. Plus oil prices will skyrocket again if he does this

Iran will sink oil tankers passing through the Straight of Hormuz, which is the only major passable way through the Persian Gulf.

[ThomWV]

10. High Oil Prices Clearly Do Not Faze Bush

They were in the $15~$24 Range when he took office and a 300-500% increased didn't bother him.

[WCGreen]

13. They do have a sub just for that reason....

[Peace Patriot]

2. Anyone want to kick Hugo Chavez again for calling Bush the devil?

Dennis Kucinich says it's happening. We're already in Iran, with special ops and other personnel. I expected a phony "Gulf of Tonkin" incident to be cooked up, but maybe they won't even bother with fooling Congress. What does Congress matter anyway?

[Wetzelbill]

3. Scott Ritter and DK

have been all over this stuff for a while. I just had a girl tell me her bf is in the Army and he has to hurry and leave to a base in Kuwait here in the next week. He won't tell her why either. Not sure if that is related, but it sounds odd, you know?

I don't know if Bush will go through this type of scenario Senator Hart describes here or even to that scale, but it sure as hell would not surprise me if he did. Not a bit.

[JDPriestly]

4. There will be a backlash. If voters are sick of Iraq, just you wait . .

they will be even sicker if we get bogged down in Iran. No one likes the Iranian government, and no one wants Iran to join the ever growing nuclear weapons club, but the U.S. has no business getting bogged down in yet another war with yet another oil producing nation. How high would such a war push gas prices? Are alternatives to gasoline available to keep our economy afloat if we fight Iran? As for bombing, what would we bomb? Has someone pinpointed the location of facilities for enriching weapons grade uranium? Would we bomb something else? And how many innocent Iranians would be killed in the process of our attack? And what kind of terrorist reaction would bombing or attempting to invade Iran result in? How many of our troops would ultimately die in counterattacks? Would we have backing from any other first world countries? How much backing? Could Bush put together another international "coalition" after the fiasco in Iraq? I doubt it. Americans were fooled once in Iraq. But we are likely to ask a lot more questions about Iran. Bush is kicking himself in the pants if he attacks Iran at this point.

[FogerRox]

5. Ships leaving port on the east coast, possibly

1 or 2 carrier task forces being deployed to the middle east. we'll see.

[Wiley50]

14. Everything you list is true, but won't kick in until about a week

AFTER the election, if they hit Iran just before the election.

Shit. Maybe everyone will be so transfixed
with the CNN "Green Screen of Shock and Awe"
they won't be able to pull themselves away
long enough to go to the polls.

Who cares about exit polls
when there's an actual war on TV

[Wetzelbill]

7. Kiznick

in the Snoop Dogg vernacular. :)

[xchrom]

8. election or not -- the u.s. will bomb iran.

ever since the talk of iran and nuclear program began to become hysterical -- i've thought that this would be the outcome.

[FtWayneBlue]

9. TIME says it might happen, THE NATION says it is already

about to take place.

(see)
War Signals?
by Dave Lindorff



As reports circulate of a sharp debate within the White House over possible US military action against Iran and its nuclear enrichment facilities, The Nation has learned that the Bush Administration and the Pentagon have moved up the deployment of a major "strike group" of ships, including the nuclear aircraft carrier Eisenhower as well as a cruiser, destroyer, frigate, submarine escort and supply ship, to head for the Persian Gulf, just off Iran's western coast. This information follows a report in the current issue of Time magazine, both online and in print, that a group of ships capable of mining harbors has received orders to be ready to sail for the Persian Gulf by October 1.

As Time writes in its cover story, "What Would War Look Like?," evidence of the forward deployment of minesweepers and word that the chief of naval operations had asked for a reworking of old plans for mining Iranian harbors "suggest that a much discussed--but until now largely theoretical--prospect has become real: that the U.S. may be preparing for war with Iran."

more at
http://mobile.thenation.com/docmobile.mhtml?i=20061009&s=lindorff

[GETPLANING]

11. US will provoke an attack on the 5th fleet,

and use that as an excuse to launch a nuclear strike. It's the oldest play in the book.

[Swede]

12. I wonder what the Chinese Navy will be doing?

This might get pretty interesting.