Why no hurricanes this year?

[Onlooker]

While I'm convinced by Al Gore's argument on global warming, I'm surprised there have been very few hurricanes this year, and no major hurricane has hit the United States. How do global warming believers account for this?

[gator_in_Ontario]

1. El Nino n/t

[William769]

6. Yep,

[hughee99]

12. I thought El Nino resulted in warmer weather...

and warmer weather caused increased hurricane frequency and strength. Does El Nino have an opposite effect in the Atlantic ocean?

[Lone_Star_Dem]

20. Yes, but El Nino is in the Pacific not the Atlantic

Thus the warmer water is on the other side of the US and not drawing the tropical storms up and feeding them. :)

[Virginia Dare]

21. It effects the currents, and the currents steer the storms..

I'm not a meteorologist, but I believe that is it in a nut-shell.

[sandnsea]

26. Yes El Nino

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2006/09/22/72669.htm

I guess scientific facts aren't all that popular on DU either, based on some of the comments in the rest of this thread.

[Virginia Dare]

2. They've been steered off into the Atlantic...

Bermuda got hit twice, and Gordon was supposed to hit England and Ireland, but I never heard how bad it was.

Southeast Asia has been getting slammed by Typhoons.

[ComerPerro]

11. ever notice that when the US doesn't get hit, there are

"no hurricanes"?

Nobody in the US gives a fuck.

[democrat_patriot]

3. Karl Rove trick?

Most likely El Nino

[bluerum]

4. The Pacific has had several. The Atlantic hurricanes have stayed

out to sea for the most part.

I think I read that el nino is causing some air current conditions that are unfavorable to large storm forming and being sustained off the south eastern coast.

Make no mistake - this is a good thing.

[Ezlivin]

5. Because of election year politics - the hot air bubble protects us

N/T

[aikoaiko]

7. probabilistic events.

You can flip a fair quarter 100 times and not get heads.

[Ravenseye]

27. Rosencranz?

Is that you?

[mdmc]

8. I heard Bush outlawed them

now they are tropical storms....

[uppityperson]

9. been 8 named ones so far this yr in Atlantic.

There is variation yr to yr. Global warming is an overall larger trend than any 1 yr, 1 month, 1 place.

[Snivi Yllom]

10. last year was an anomaly

.

[seabeyond]

13. we had NO snow and a warm winter last year. shit happens

and doesnt happen, loll lol. we also had no tornado threat this year,... last year we had a lot of touch downs and threats. was oddly calm this spring and summer.

[Jacobin]

14. Because some years you dont, some years you do.

Anyone who tries to predict hurricanes in advance is a fool.

viz: the idiot in Denver (DENVER!!) who every year tells us how many category thises and category thats we'er gonna have and where they will hit.

He's already 'revised' his 'prediction' about a month ago and so far his 'revised prediction' is so far off the wall its fall down laughing funny.

[TexasProgresive]

15. It's not every year and

one year doesn't make or break the theory of Global Warming. If the Gulf Stream slows or stops who knows what that will do to the formation of Atlantic hurricaines and their tracks.

[truebrit71]

16. Because global warming is a pinko-commie subversive lie....

...or El Nino...

You pick... ;-)

[Warren DeMontague]

17. It's not "Al Gore's argument". It's the unanimous consensus of the

scientific community. There are no more "global warming believers" than there are "evolution believers.". Either you're someone who accepts the scientific facts, or you're in denial.

Increasing the carbon load in the atmosphere WILL MAKE and IS MAKING the planet warmer. One seasonal respite from hurricanes doesn't prove it's not happening.

Don't believe me? Try a nice vacation on Venus. The reason the surface temperature there is around 800 degrees is because of all the CO2 in the atmosphere.

[Onlooker]

30. Yes, true,

But, Al Gore did by far the most eloquent job of framing the argument.

[Golden Raisin]

18. This season may just be

an off cycle for Mother Nature. Also, Hurricane season doesn't "officially" end until November 30th.

[Generator]

19. God is busy in Iraq

[Keepontruking]

23. Good

Loved your Answer!!!!!!!!!!  Circus Girl

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. Hurricane season doesn't end until Nov.

n/t

[puffthemagicdragon]

24. there WERE hurricanes..does anybody care?

2 huge ones hit the puerto vallarta area and cabo san lucas...love both of those places and I love the people there too and I know that they KNOW FOR SURE THAT THERE WERE HURRICANES THIS YEAR...jeesh people. apparently if it doesnt happen in our own back yards it is irrelevant. Last time I was in puerto vallarta in 2005 they were still cleaning up from a huge hurricane in 2001!!!!!

[Bridget Burke]

25. So--you're not a "global warming believer"?

The season's not over--& there have been some hurricanes. But this season does appear to be less active than average. Just as last year was far more active than average.

I live on the Gulf Coast & have been following this stuff for many years.

[FILAM23]

28. Having followed this for years

usually after a busier then normal year in the Atlantic (last year)
the next year is busier in the Pacific

[lovuian]

29. My theory is the salinity of the water is decreasing

the conveyor belt is halting

so I expect cooler temperatures here in the gulf

no warm water no Hurricanes

You will see more Hurricanes in the pacific

I predict California may see their first big one

[greenman3610]

31. Global warming model does not predict greater number of 'cains.

It does predict greater intensity of those cains that do arise.
--------
Global warming is pumping up the destructive power of hurricanes and typhoons, a new study published by Kerry Emanuel, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology hurricane specialist suggests.<snip>

The frequency of hurricanes seems unaffected by global warming. Regional totals vary periodically, but the number of tropical cyclones around the world averages a steady 90 per year. But Emanuel's study is the second in weeks to link storm intensity with climate.
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2005/08/01/57888.htm


Witness China's worst cyclone since they started keeping records,
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article1218447.ece

2 cat 5s hit Australia within a few weeks last spring
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/19/world/main1419446.shtml
http://www.brendanloy.com/2006/04/monica-one-of-the-strongest-tropical-cyclones-ever.html