We now know what the October surprise will be and its not good

[Gman]

From a post in GD-Politics by kaygore which cites a very disturbing article in The Nation:

As reports circulate of a sharp debate within the White House over possible US military action against Iran and its nuclear enrichment facilities, The Nation has learned that the Bush Administration and the Pentagon have issued orders for a major "strike group" of ships, including the nuclear aircraft carrier Eisenhower as well as a cruiser, destroyer, frigate, submarine escort and supply ship, to head for the Persian Gulf, just off Iran's western coast. This information follows a report in the current issue of Time magazine, both online and in print, that a group of ships capable of mining harbors has received orders to be ready to sail for the Persian Gulf by October 1.

<snip>

According to Lieut. Mike Kafka, a spokesman at the headquarters of the Second Fleet, based in Norfolk, Virginia, the Eisenhower Strike Group, bristling with Tomahawk cruise missiles, has received recent orders to depart the United States in a little over a week. Other official sources in the public affairs office of the Navy Department at the Pentagon confirm that this powerful armada is scheduled to arrive off the coast of Iran on or around October 21.

<snip>

Given the President's assertion that the nation is fighting a "global war on terror" and that he is Commander in Chief of that "war," his prominent linking of the Iran regime with terror has to be seen as a deliberate effort to claim his right to carry the fight there. Bush has repeatedly insisted that the 2001 Congressional Authorization for the Use of Force that preceded the invasion of Afghanistan was also an authorization for an unending "war on terror."

-------------------------------------

And Karl Rove is now bragging about an October surprise in this excerpt posted at Raw Story from NewsMax:

According to two conservative websites, White House political strategist Karl Rove has been promising GOP insiders that there will be an "October surprise" before the midterm elections.

"In the past week, Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders an 'October surprise' to help win the November congressional elections," reports Ronald Kessler for Newsmax.

<snip>

As for the October Surprise, Rove said, "I'd rather let the balance unroll on its own."

-------------------------

Like I've said for years now. These people are capable of doing literally anything it takes to stay in power. They are apparently willing to start another war just before the November 7 election and they will claim the authority to do so from the congressional authorization for force against Afghanistan. So COngress won't have a thing to say about it before the action already starts, and then Congress has no power to stop it.

Right before Labor Day 2002 they started beating the war drums for war in Iraq. They know people are very wary of that same thing. So they will strike just before the election catching people, dazed, confused and not able to sort out what is really happening. They will call for rallying around the flag and will vilify anyone not going along with the Iran mission. People won't have time to really think and absorb everything about it before they walk into the voting booth.

The ONLY defense we have against this is to be screaming it from the rooftops everywhere just what they are in the process of doing before its too late. If we can take away the surprise effect we can possibly mitigate this. A strategy of screaming an October Surprise is coming was used by the GOP in the fall of 1980 when they feared Carter would pull off releasing the hostages in Iran. Of course, the GOP also sent Poppy Bush to London to negotiate with Iran that they would not release the hostages until after the election.

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. So...they're going to start ANOTHER war to try to unite us?

Are we like Pavlovian dogs here? We're not suppose to criticize a president during a time a war when we're outside our US borders; We're suppose to stand united whenever there's a declared war; We're suppose to stand down from challenging election results for the good of the country...

Boy, those Republicans keep playing us like a cheap fiddle.

[Hubert Flottz]

6. It's how they won the last Mid Term election...

It worked for them once!

[spin]

12. The Bush plan

The Iraq war was never about oil.

Bush invaded Iraq to establish a foothold in the mideast and then to launch an attack against Iran.

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. The PNAC plan. That's only half the forumula.

Bush and Cheney are oil people. The Neo-cons were the original PNACers. When the Democrats lost power, the Neo-cons found an eager ear from the oil people. It's a marriage made in hell.

[The Deacon]

19. I Keep Reading This & It Insults Me

My grandfather was a REAL oil man, my maternal uncles have grease so deep into their hands they leave fingerprints AFTER a shower.
Bush & Cheney are poseurs. Bush 43 couldn't find oil in Texas. His daddy's great "oil patch experience" consisted of buying worthless leases next to producing leases & blackmailing the producers into buying them by threatening them with offset drilling (this is a technique where you drill at an angle into your neighbors oil strike - illegal in every state except Texas.) Cheney became a "Marquee CEO" for Halliburton after being Secretary of Defense under Bush 41 - he has ZERO experience in oil exploration or production.
Calling these Crooks & Crocks "oil men" insults a brave & noble breed of Americans (Wildcatters - the Independents they try to associate themselves with.)

[The Backlash Cometh]

22. "offset drilling"

You have the same idiotic laws with water. Texas is all about being okay about stealing from your neighbor. That's what Libertarianism is all about. That's why they call Cheney a Western-style Libertarian.

It has sucked the true entrepreneurship and innovativeness of our country when you have posers in a grey suit running around the country, and now the world, staying just long enough in one place to rob it of its resources.

[newyawker99]

23. Hi spin!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[spin]

26. Thanks for your support!

[robcon]

2. Links to Raw Story and NewsMax:

Two unreliable sites which have made up quotes before.

No sale, unless more believable cites are provided.

[Goblinmonger]

7. Yeah, I'm waiting for truthout to say it before I believe it!

:rofl:

I kill myself sometimes.

[greguganus]

17. You stole my thunder! n/t

[lonestarnot]

14. An unreliable accusation. Provide cites.

[Gman]

24. Did you read the article in The Nation?

It's linked above. Raw Story only reported on the article in The Nation.

[demnan]

3. We need to have massive protests about this

Even that won't stop it, but at least it might wake some people up. God damn them!

[Drifter]

4. I look forward to the unending ...

prison sentences.

Cheers
Drifter

[theophilus]

5. I hope this will NOT happen......anytime! I would think that they

might put some forces in position but I think a hit on Iran before the election would not work well for them. I think that they wait until after the election and then start action. This will allow the oil companies to hike their price dramatically, thus paying them back for the low prices (bribes) that are happening now.

I just can't imagine our govt. attacking Iran, but having said that, I realize that reality does not impact these criminals. Our only hope is that some in the military will convince Spurious George and his buddies to change their minds.

I don't want to think about what China and Russian might do. I'm not sure there are any sensible people in control of the nukes. Well, I guess we'll see who is right pretty quickly. Put some tuna under the bed!

[zanne]

9. "They might put some forces in position"

By Jove, I think you've got it! That's really all they have to do to get the American people "skeered". They've used every tactic in the book, from being aggressive to being passive-aggressive. I think this would be their perfect passive-aggressive move.

[displacedtexan]

8. I predict that...

this Iran deal is a red herring.

I also predict that we've fallen into the "Where's Osama?" trap,

and Osama is on ice --in a secure undisclosed location-- but will
be thawed out a couple of weeks before the Nov. 7th election.

Just my prediction. Of course, BushCo could pull off both.

[EnviroBat]

18. I hope I'm not alone on this but...

I wouldn't care if they did find OBL. It wouldn't change my contempt for this government one bit.

[Gman]

29. Read my post from one month ago here:

I say the same thing:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Gman/21

[blonndee]

30. I've been thinking about the Osama thing for a while now too.

I actually thought they'd do it back in 04.

[leveymg]

10. Unfortunately, there's a perfectly rational basis for sabre-rattling.

The military will go along a show of force as part of a controlled project to pressure Tehran to make concessions on its nuclear programs. Yes, this is psywar, but it's not crazy. The crazy act is part of the psywar program, not the other way around.*

Unfortunately, sabre-rattling tends to politically benefit the party in power. Think of the Cuban Missile Crisis, that occurred just a couple weeks before the 1962 Mid-term elections. Actual wars, particularly those that aren't successful and broadly supported, tend to be political suicide - think about Vietnam and Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

Sure, the White House is pushing a confrontation. That works for them on several levels. But, an actual war -- particularly before November 7, isn't what Karl Rove might advise. Juan Cole has said this for months, and I agree with him.

_____________________________
*That doesn't imply that I think Shrub and Co. are models of rationality and intelligence.

[murray hill farm]

11. They will do anything to stop the Dems from gaining

majority in either the house or senate...they must, because if they do not, then the investigations will begin in earnest and they know that will happen. They will do anything to stop it.

[Jacobin]

15. Impeach

Impeach

Impeach

Impeach

[EnviroBat]

16. Message to Bush

This time we aren't buying your bullshit...

[maxrandb]

20. Say it Loud, Say it Proud, Say it EVERYDAY to Anyone in Earshot

I'M NOT SCARED ENOUGH TO VOTE REPUBLICAN

[jbonkowski]

21. The October Surprise is actually...

...televised terror trials. Some of the guys just transfered to Gitmo are on a fast track now to start trials next month. A public trial could give the first concrete things Bush can point at say "See? I stopped more terrorist attacks."

Now, as to whether anything said at the trial is true...

jim

[alfredo]

25. If they are televised, it would show just how unAmerican bush's

kangaroo courts are. Since McCain and the other "rebels" surrendered to the king, bush can do what he wants. The people held hostage at Gitmo might as well get ready to be strapped down to the death gurney because there will be no way they will be able to prove innocence. There might be a few bad people there, but most were either kidnap victims or were defending their country against invaders. Just because your country cannot afford to provide uniforms, that doesn't make you an illegal combatant.

[mdmc]

27. i think catching obl will be the OCT surprise

:tinfoilhat:

[Imagevision]

35. umm... the november surprise will be Rove's out of job...!

[patcox2]

28. Reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis - a blockade.

And they'll openly compare it, too, they'll say Kennedy, with no congressional authorization, blockaded Cuba (an act of war) to prevent missiles from being based their. So Bush is blockading Iran to prevent nukes from being created there.

[Gman]

32. Bush would be the laughing stock of the world

as Cuba is an island surrounded by water (yes, I know that's redundant). Iran is not.

[Nikki Stone 1]

31. Times like these, the name "Kafka" for a military spokesperson seems

appropriate.

[Strelnikov_]

33. Agree This Is The Surprise. I See It As A Falklands Fleet Action Redux

The current fleet action has nothing to do with an imminent attack on Iran. It has everything to do with:

1) Ensuring a GOP victory in November. Remember the Falklands fleet action. The breathless reporting, the tension, the TV ratings. Same thing again. From mid-October up to the election this will be the serial story 24/7.

2) Following the GOP victory, the tensions with Iran will be used as the reason for run-up in petroleum product prices (Note 1).

3) The ratcheting up of tensions as units of the fleet bop around the Gulf will greatly increase the chance of a real 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident providing the political leverage for continuing their strategy of turmoil and hegemony over the energy producing regions of the Middle East (Note 2).

Note 1: Phases 1 and 2 appear to conflict. However, with the duration of Phase 1 being relatively short, and with my understanding now of how they are artificially depressing the price of gasoline, I feel they will be successful in keeping the gasoline prices down until after the election.

Note 2: No action, by a sane military leadership, can be undertaken against Iran (including a bombing campaign) without a major increase in troop levels if for no other reason to be prepared for contingencies.

An Iranian unit damages or sinks a U.S. Naval, the Maximum Leader can then go in front of Congress, say that we are victims of an unprovoked attack, like Pearl Harbor, and call for a draft to raise sufficient military strength to deal with the rogue nation of Iran.

The purpose of the 'War On Terror' and all of it's subsidiaries are related to Peak Oil as follows:

- By maintaining a constant state of tension, high petroleum prices can be explained away as a temporary spike due to politics. This way, the publics attention can kept from the accelerating supply problems worldwide, thus preventing them from starting to make other arrangements for a post-carbon world (they can't have the addicts kicking too soon).

- Whoever controls the remaining (cheap) petroleum reserves stands to make a fortune in the years immediately following the
peak of production. Even the most optimistic scenarios indicate it would take twenty years to mitigate the loss of petroleum production following peak. During this period of transition, the 'addicts' will have no choice but to pay, and pay, and pay.

[Imagevision]

34. By now I find Rove October surprises laughable - such stupid shit!

and yet this dude actually stirs up the weak-minded... whooo, I'm so scared i think I'm going to shit right here and now...hahahahahahahahaha.... whata bunch of lames!

[Nikki Stone 1]

36. More on Iran from the Centre for Global Research

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=N20060921&articleId=3299

The March to War: Iran Preparing for US Air Attacks

by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

September 21, 2006

Iran is bracing itself for an expected American-led air campaign. The latter is in the advanced stages of military planning.

If there were to be war between the United States and Iran, the aerial campaign would unleash fierce combat. It would be fully interactive on multiple fronts. It would be a difficult battle involving active movement in the air from both sides.

If war were to occur, the estimates of casualties envisaged by American and British war planners would be high. The expected wave of aerial attacks would resemble the tactics of the Israeli air-war against Lebanon and would follow the same template, but on a larger scale of execution.

The U.S. government and the Pentagon had an active role in graphing, both militarily and politically, the template of confrontation in Lebanon. The Israeli siege against Lebanon is in many regards a dress rehearsal for a planned attack on Iran.1 ....