Winter Heating Season Coming. How will prices be this year?

[Armstead]

From Summer to Winter, the focus traditionally shifts from gas prices to heating fuel prices.

Wonder what's going to happen with them this year? Will they stay or, go higher, or "mysteriously" be lower for the upcoming winter.

That's likely to have as much impoact on perceptions before the elections as gas prices for those in colder states....As a resident of a colder state, I personally hope for some respite from high heating costs...But I also hope there isn't rigging of the market as an October Surprise for the GOP.

[StClone]

1. My friend the meteorology Professor

Predicted the extreme drought and heat of this summer and is seeing no well established pattern yet for winter. He has also gone against current thinking and predicted the Hurricane season would be much less severe than last year's record breaker. There is some association between weak hurricane pattern and milder U.S. winter patterns. His best guess are a pattern of mild weather punctuated by three main colder than average outbreaks in Central U.S. into the East: mid to late November; mid-January; and late February into March.

I have heard (need link) that natural gas and fuel oil should be in adequate supply to avoid the big jumps of last winter. If the prediction for a mild winter hold it should be a reprieve for this heating season.

[nancyr]

2. I predict a sharp rise in prices after the election.

[StClone]

4. Fuel Cheaper before election

To increase after. I am watching this along with my friends weather predictions.

[Armstead]

3. Short term cold outbreaks or long ones?

A few days of it is managable. But I hope we don;t get too many of those multi day deep freezes.

[StClone]

5. If you are familiar with cold outbreaks

They originate from places like Siberia, Polar Arctic, Greenland and the Canadian landmass. A big chunk of High pressure cold flows out of the aforementioned regions and take about 12 to 14 days to arrive then retreat or moderate. A persistent cold outbreak can last a month or all winter and into even Spring or Summer. My friends is looking at 12 to 14 day types.

[Individualist]

6. El Niño is back

El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.

www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/