Sam Gardiner:"We Are Conducting Military Operations Inside Iran Right Now"

[Jcrowley]

Retired Colonel: ‘We Are Conducting Military Operations Inside Iran Right Now. The Evidence Is Overwhelming.’

Just now on CNN, Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner (Ret.) said, “We are conducting military operations inside Iran right now. The evidence is overwhelming.”

Gardiner, who taught at the U.S. Army’s National War College, has previously suggested that U.S. forces were already on the ground in Iran. Today he added several additional new points:

1) The House Committee on Emerging Threats recently called on State and Defense Department officials to testify on whether U.S. forces were in Iran. The officials didn’t come to the hearing.

2) “We have learned from Time magazine today that some U.S. naval forces had been alerted for deployment. That is a major step.”

3) “The plan has gone to the White House. That’s not normal planning. When the plan goes to the White House, that means we’ve gone to a different state.”

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/09/18/gardiner-iran

Transcript here:
http://thinkprogress.org/col-sam-gardiner-on-cnn-91806/

[soothsayer]

1. What on earth can dumbass do with no troops? Tho we know he

and cheney have been pushing to use nukes.

[DemInDistress]

2. wow,. officials blow off the hearings.. scumbags in charge seem

to be very cavalier with other people's lives.

:dem: K&R

[oblivious]

3. Look, they don't want the whole damn country, just that western edge.

The part with the little green and red splotches.

[Jcrowley]

4. Precisely

The vast majority of Iran's crude oil reserves are located in giant onshore fields in the southwestern Khuzestan region near the Iraqi border and the Persian Gulf. Iran has 32 producing oil fields, of which 25 are onshore and 7 offshore. Major onshore fields include the following: Ahwaz-Asmari (700,000 bbl/d); Bangestan (around 245,000 bbl/d current production, with plans to increase to 550,000 bbl/d), Marun (520,000 bbl/d), Gachsaran (560,000 bbl/d), Agha Jari (200,000 bbl/d), Karanj-Parsi (200,000 bbl/d); Rag-e-Safid (180,000 bbl/d); Bibi Hakimeh (130,000 bbl/d), and Pazanan (70,000 bbl/d). Major offshore fields include: Dorood (130,000 bbl/d); Salman (130,000 bbl/d); Abuzar (125,000 bbl/d); Sirri A&E (95,000 bbl/d); and Soroush/Nowruz (60,000 bbl/d).

According to the Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/04), Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 10% of the world's total, up from 90 billion barrels in 2003. In October 1999, Iran announced that it had made its biggest oil discovery in 30 years, a giant onshore field called Azadegan located in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, a few miles east of the border with Iraq. Reportedly, the Azadegan field contains proven crude oil reserves of 26 billion barrels. In July 2004, Iran's oil minister stated that the country's proven oil reserves had increased again, to 132 billion barrels, following new discoveries in the Kushk and Hosseineih fields in Khuzestan province.

Iran's energy generation capacity has risen to about 26,000 megawatts. The share of Khuzestan in total amount of energy produced in the country was 3,800 mega watts. The figure is expected to increase following operationing of three dams in Khuzestan province. Water resources are unevenly spread; 30 percent of surface water resources are concentrated in one province (Khuzestan), while many other populated provinces fully exploit their scarce available resources.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-1002.htm

[leveymg]

5. Saddam wanted "just" those areas, and it cost him a half-million troops

In the end, after four years of bloody slugging back and forth, Iran retook Khuzestan.

Don't ever think that it will come cheap and easy to occupy Iranian territory, even "just" the oil-rich border region. It won't

[leveymg]

6. Col. Gardiner has been somewhat premature before.

This from Sam Soto at LeftCoaster on May 21, 2006: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/007724.php

With these indicators starting to emerge, I asked both Cole and Gardiner the big question: when did they think an attack would occur?

Cole said:

If you get a lot of US troops killed as a result in Iraq and the country falls into further chaos, that wouldn't exactly help the Republicans in the congressional races.
My own guess is that Karl Rove would advise them to put it off until November 6, the way they did the Fallujah campaign in 04.

Gardiner’s assessment was different and more alarming.

I would stay the probability of a strike before the elections is 80 to 90%.

Gardiner is not saying that an attack is imminent, only that as we see indicators pile up in the coming weeks and months, it is more clear that something may happen prior to November.