http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=156238It's Snapshot Thursday — The Note's weekly look at where things stand in the battle for control of Congress in the 2006 midterms.
At 30,000 feet, things remain the same: the order of likelihood of outcomes is what it has been for some time.
1. Democrats take control of the House; Republicans keep control of the Senate: 49%
2. Republicans keep control of both chambers: 31%
3. Democrats take control of both chambers: 15%
4. Democrats take control of the Senate; Republicans keep control of the House: 5%
But beneath that, down at 20,000, there is reason to believe that across the fruited plain, there is a trajectory building — on this Snapshot Thursday — for the odds of #2 increasing.
Luckily for The Note's desire to avoid controversy or subjectivity, there is a mathematical formula that explains why:
<Premium must-read Washington Post story explaining why the Republican micro-targeting get-out-the-vote program is much better than what the Democrats have LINK> + lowering gas prices + <new ABC News and WSJ/NBC polls showing the Republican and POTUS fortunes on the upswing and the issues matrix shifting> + the daily success of the White House in baiting Pelosi/Reid/Dean/Kennedy into debates on "who can keep you safer?" + pro-Republican campaign ads fueled by superior cash reserves + wecankeepyousaferinanuncertainworlddemocratswillraiseyourtaxesandhurtfamilyvaluesdonotcutandrun versus? + a rising Dow and looming positive economic news + Chafee's win in Rhode Island = GREATER WHITE HOUSE/RNC/NRSC/NRCC/K STREET UNITY AND CONFIDENCE.
That unity and confidence will be seen in today's seminal political event, the President's meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill. Just a few months ago, there were rough feelings between All the President's Women and Men and the MOCS on Capitol Hill trying to save their majorities. The mood today, per one top Republican Leadership aide, "Bordering on buoyed, approaching enthusiastic that things are moving in the right direction. . . . a continuation of the successful effort by Chairman Reynolds at yesterday's meeting of the Conference to instill a spirit of determination for the fall."
:puke: