Right wingers are delusional in more ways then one

[Chimichurri]

By now many of us are fully aware that the housing bubble is bursting and more violently then projected. Home prices have fallen in some areas as much as 30% YOY. People in the hottest markets are scrambling to sell their homes. Economists who don't have a vested interest in real estate use data to confirm this historic catastrophe.

But for some on the right side of the isle, facts don't matter. Not even regarding the biggest real estate bubble in the history of mankind. None so blind as those who will not see couldn't be more true. In message boards, whose purpose is for open forum discussions on real estate, I come across the same right wing idiocy you find in any political discourse. This from one of these conservative geniuses:

There are too many bitter renters, and "liberals" who think the sky is falling.

Nuance escapes this conservative as usual. Data - no matter from who is irrelevant to this poster. Not even from the http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=72305">National Association of Realtors themselves.

and this:

HEY LOSERS CHECK OUT THE HOME BUILDERS STOCKS, THEY'RE UP 5%+ TODAY!

Actually, home builder stocks are http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/news/companies/lennar/?postversion=2006090812">down. Yes they were higher for that one day (this tuesday when stocks rallied) compared to the day prior. However - delve deeper into reality and home builders' orders are down as much as 49% from last year. Soon enough the stock will undoubtedly reflect these losses. Of course this fact doesn't change the color of this person's rose colored glasses.

These are just some examples I come across often from wingers who drive by to post their turds of wisdom with the same delusional vitriol they shmear across the political blogosphere everyday. Their desire to remain in blissful ignorance still to this day astonishes me. I find the similarities both intriguing and disturbing so I felt compelled to share the phenomenon. If anyone else had noticed how the idiocy permeates beyond their politics - please share.

[raccoon]

1. "There is none so blind as he who will not see."

Don't know who said that, but it seems especially appropriate in these times.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. By creating and hanging onto...

Economic Delusions, they think that they can simply will away the realities facing them. This is almost sad, but not quite, since it is mouthbreathing idiots we are talking about and no amount of calm and rational discourse with them is going to make a difference.

People who are mentally challenged are one thing. People who willingly choose ignorance of the objective facts, in the pursuit of their ideology, are worthy of scorn.

[zbdent]

3. Logic eludes them ... "stocks are up! YAYYY!!!"

Yeah, stocks are up ... but are still down from Clinton's high ... what was that? DOW 11700 neighborhood? NASDAQ 5000? Imagine if Bush hadn't effed up the economy with his scare tactics, we might have seen the "Dow 36000" like the book said ...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

4. Here's A Great Link If Ya Don't Have It

Lots of different discussion from regions around the country, and some knowledgable folks posting as well.

www.thehousingbubbleblog.com

[Chimichurri]

5. thanks a bunch. Always looking for new perspectives. Added

it to my bookmarks.

[Karenina]

6. You might want to check out

the Carlyle Group's real estate holdings and investments. Draw your own conclusions. ;-)

[Chimichurri]

8. I get google updates on them everyday and they have bought

they are always buying out companies especially in China. I've no idea what their real estate business is like although I know they love telecoms from around the world. It would be fascinating to put a list of their transactions to see just how their hands are in everybody's cookie jar. I have no doubts it would be a frightening list to see. Any info that's interesting that you've found?

[Karenina]

9. Several years ago

I read a post here on DU, of course, that connected the dots on the giant sucking sound of assets out of the hands of the middle class.
It was quite detailed and stomach churning. I'll have a look through my bookmarks but believe this was on the old DU software. However, I'm certain with your skills you can find the list cached somewhere. It included references to collusion with the banking industry...

[louis-t]

7. Same here.

[lonestarnot]

10. Thanks for the link a dink orangecounty Democrat!

[patcox2]

11. Your link on the word "confirm" confirms nothing.

There is no objective data whatsoever in the article in question, just an advisor shilling his services.

Why must you turn my dental office into a pack of overhyped "the sky is falling" housing market hysteria?

[Chimichurri]

12. So you didn't like the Forbes article

Here from Morgan Stanley http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060825-fri.html#anchor0

As always, the upside of a speculative bubble lasts for longer than you think. But when it finally goes, it invariably unwinds with greater force than widely expected. That seems to be the way the chips are now falling in the US housing market. Demand for homes is falling like a stone and inventories of unsold dwellings are ballooning -- up 40% for existing homes and 22% for new homes in the 12 months ending July. These are the classic quantity adjustments that set the stage for price destruction -- the endgame of any asset bubble. So far, home values just seem to be leveling off at still lofty price points. As the bid-offer gap widens in an excess inventory and rising interest rate climate, price declines will come as they always do. This bubble is not different.

From the FDIC:

A period of true distress for homeowners and lenders might be better defined in terms of a large decline in nominal prices. Since mortgage debt is taken on and paid off in nominal dollars, a decline of more than 15 percent in nominal home values could push the value of many properties below what homeowners owe on their mortgages. If homeowners had no choice but to sell in this type of situation, they could be forced to bring a sizeable personal check to the closing. Such a large decline in nominal home values would reduce the incentive of homeowners to repay their mortgages to protect their equity stake, since equity tends to evaporate with a decline in prices. This is why we feel that a better measure of distress in metro-area housing markets would be to define a bust as an average decline in nominal home prices of at least 15 percent over five years, or a nominal "15 in 5" rule.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/021005fyi.html

Use your critical thinking skills to assess the data yourself - you're a dentist I know you can do it.

[Chimichurri]

13. Foreclosures spike

Rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages contribute to 53% jump in foreclosures.

With real estate markets slowing and mortgage rates well above levels of recent years, times are getting tougher for homeowners - the number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging, according to a survey released Wednesday.

In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure sales. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/13/real_estate/foreclosures_spiking/index.htm?postversion=2006091311

[patcox2]

14. I am assessing the data; like most people my home is my biggest investment

And I know that there were 173 foreclosure actions commenced in my state last month, which is not up at all from one year ago, and that although the inventories are up, prices are still also up from one year ago.

There is no one huge bubble, there are numerous small local bubbles of variuous degree, which will either collapse or deflate according to local conditions.

Thank God.