In Iran, a surprising, confounding world

[spindrifter]

By David Ignatius
Daily Star staff
Saturday, September 09, 2006


At the end of a 10-day visit here, I am struggling with a question: Is the Iranian revolution of 27 years ago following the normal arc of history and moving toward a rational and stable society? Or is this country still exploding with radical energy and a desire to export its revolution to other Muslim nations?

The answer, I'm afraid, is that while Iran is maturing as a nation, the heat of the Islamic revolution is still intense - and dangerous. This should be Iran's moment, in which this big, dynamic country claims its place as the region's dominant power, with commensurate responsibilities. But its leaders seem unable to make the compromises that would lock in Iran's gains. They have an "up" staircase toward confrontation, but not a "down" staircase toward agreement.

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Iran is one of the most surprising and confounding countries I've visited. It's more modern than one expects, more open, more diverse. You hear conflicting opinions on almost every topic - from different factions within the government, the clergy, the media, the business community. This isn't North Korea, or even China - where a ruling party enforces consensus. At the center of the Iranian government is a black hole, a group of senior clerics whose decisions are wrapped in mystery. That's the essence of the problem - there are so many competing factions, and so many checks built into the system, that sometimes nobody seems to be steering the ship of state.

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Iran's business leaders know that in a globalized economy, Iran needs foreign investment. "Growth is closely related to cooperation with the international economy," says Ali Naghi Khamoushi, the president of the Iranian chamber of commerce, at a conference for foreign investors here. But after 27 years, Iran is used to going it alone, and business leaders don't seem especially worried about sanctions. Indeed, Iranians see a perverse economic benefit in defying the international community. "If we cooperate, oil is $7 a barrel. If we don't, it is $70," former Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani observes at the investment conference.

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