Good Friday Morning! Want Some Good News? Well, This Isn't It...

[Hissyspit]

In case you missed this in the Environment forum - I find it profoundly disturbing:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x67124

...along with this post by Barrett808:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=66036&mesg_id=66036

[Buzz Clik]

1. Before we start engraving our headstones...

... it might be a good idea to give all of this some perspective. No doubt, this is important, but how important?

First, we recognize that roughly 60% of the methane emitted into the atmosphere is from anthropogenic sources. Of the remaining 40%, here's the breakdown of natural sources:



The part of the above graph that's relevant here is the hydrates (click http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/methane/index.php">here). So, if indeed the increase in methane from permafrost is 5 times greater than previously thought, then the hydrate portion of the graph expands to 25%, and that's 25% of the 40% of the total. In other words, for the global budget of methane, that's an increase from 2% to 10%.

That's a significant increase in methane, but the impact lessens further when we remember that methane is contributing less than 10% of the impact of all greenhouse gases.

It's an interesting finding, and it's important. But, it will have a small impact on the overall, global system.

[Dead_Parrot]

2. Pass the chisel...

5%? From your own article:

...at the current rate of increase, global warming due to CH4 is expected to reach up to 40-50% of the CO2 warming effect... The largest source of natural gases, mostly composed of CH4 , is stored in gas-hydrates beneath permafrost and the onshore permafrost reservoir is roughly estimated to be as much as 32,000 Gt. (1Gt = 10⁹ tons). This is 10⁶, or one million, times as much as the CH4 released in the atmosphere of all northern ecosystems. Dr. Shakhova feels that a very small disturbance of gas hydrates could cause catastrophic consequences within a few decades"

That you interpret Shakhova's "catastrophic consequences" as "a small impact" is very curious.

[Viking12]

3. ..but CH4 concentration will only be 5-6 ppm...

such small number doesn't matter :sarcasm: