New Jersey Senator (D) trailing in latest poll.

[Eric J in MN]

From
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/NewJerseySenate.htm

Republican State Senator Tom Kean Jr., son of the former NJ Governor, again leads Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in New Jersey's race for U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Kean with 44% of the vote while Menendez is at 39%. In our last two polls, Menendez, an appointed incumbent, held a six-point lead.

To reflect the reversal, we are now revising our assessment of the contest from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Menendez thus becomes the only Senate Democrat not favored to win re-election. Three Republican incumbents (DeWine, Burns, Chafee) find themselves in Toss-Up races. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s (R) race is ranked as Leans Democrat.

The new numbers in the Garden State represent a dramatic shift from the last two polls, but the contest has been close all year. Neither candidate has been able to move above the low-40s in terms of voter support.

Kean has a famous name, but New Jersey leans Democrat. The candidates have been swapping charges of corruption and ethical conduct, and it may be that the incumbent is getting the worst of it. Kean has been slamming Menendez hard about rent he collected for several years from a nonprofit agency for which he helped get federal funding.
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Bob Menendez campaign website

[vi5]

1. As a proud NJ resident I say....

This sucks.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. How are things going on the ground?

WTF has been going on there recently?

[Chimichurri]

5. I live in NJ and I have seen nothing.

[karynnj]

7. same here - the only thing I've heard is that the number

of Democratic volunteers is up - but I will in a Republican county - where keeping the margin down is the most we can do.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

8. Things have been changing in Morris County.

Hell, Madison went to the Democrats. That was a shocker, even I voted for the Republican for town council. Basically, because I know her and she's a good person, plus it's Madison, there are no real party issues.

[vi5]

9. I'm in Morris and I haven't seen much Menendez or Kean...

...materials anywhere. I was in Morristown today and walked past both the Republican and the Democratic HQ's for Morris County and both seemed to be empty. It was lunch time, but still. Who knows.

[karynnj]

15. My daughter, a senior in 2004,

said the Randolph Junior/Senior class in their mock election went to Kerry by a few points. This bodes well for the future. You're right if the Democrats are winning in places like Madison - we're in great shape. We lived in Florham Park before moving to Randolph - I'm not sure which is more Republican. I think many are a bit scared of the extreme tilt to the radical right.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

16. I graduated Morris Hills in 2001.

We didn't have a mock election, but the student body and the teachers there were quite liberal. I was totally out for the second half of my HS career and the only person who ever had an issue with it was the principal, who has since retired. The teachers were almost universally outspoken against Bush before he got in the first time and it says a lot that I was openly gay and friends with the "popular" kids. At least in the MHRD, the schools are producing smart, liberal kids.

[karynnj]

18. My dayghter was at Morristown Beard (her best friend went to RHS

and she told us abut the election). They were pretty liberal as well and there were far more Kerry stickers in the parking lot than Bush ones.

[vi5]

19. Interesting...

I went to Morristown Beard. Years ago of course. I had some extremely liberal teachers who were like mentors to me. Of course many, if not most of the kids were the sons and daughters of the Reaganites (this was the 80's).

[Yupster]

12. But doesn't this happen every cycle in Jersey?

The Republican is right there and it's too close to call, and then on election day, the Democratic candidate wins comfortably.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. But Kerry and Corzine were never trailing

Both races were polled as close, but Kerry (with the exception of what I think was an outlier Survey USA poll in October of 2004) was always leading Bush, and the final results showed him winning by 7%, which weren't far off from what pollsters were showing. Corzine was NEVER trailing Forrester in the Gubernatorial election. Menendez should not be trailing Kean Jr. right now. The fact that he's losing this late in the race says that he's in trouble unless he starts running an ad blitz. Luckily he has more money than Kean, so he can make this race closer, but the fact that Kean Jr. is the son of a popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chair will make things close.

[iconoclastic cat]

2. Prediction: This time, it will be the polls that mysteriously flip first.

Then the massive losses by Democrats will seem kosher.

[me b zola]

3. I've been thinking along those lines

:(

[iconoclastic cat]

20. Speak of the devil:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2498366

[me b zola]

21. The devil indeed!

Thanks for that link, I hadn't seen that article. As I posted in that thread, we saw the genesis of manipulating exit polls last year. Nothing is as it appears any longer, I really do feel as though I have fallen down the rabbit hole.

[Rainscents]

6. Oh, how I remember, rasmussen poll had Bush/Cheney so close

to Kerry in NJ and guess what, it was fucking lie. Kerry own by landslide!

[Ignacio Upton]

23. Actually, Kerry didn't win in a landslide

He only won by 7%, versus Gore's 16%. From my memory, polls around Election Day were showing NJ at roughly the same amount for Kerry. I think the polls may have been right that year, only because of McGreevey's resignation and because 9/11 was a major factor in how New Jerseyans voted (you had a lot of "law and order" types who switched to Bush based on national security alone. NJ was full of "Security Moms" as well.
I'm afraid that 2004's dynamics may be playing out in NJ again this year. Corzine had a controversial sales tax increase tacked on to his budget, and his Attorney General had to step down over ethics problems. You also have the fact that Kean's father was the 9/11 Commission Chairman. And while many of the "Security Moms" are abandoning Bush, many of them might still vote for Kean, because they'll buy into the crap that's he's "independent" from the party.

[davepc]

10. Menendez was my congressman before he filled Corzine's seat

and I have heard and seen NOTHING about this race in the local media here. Hudson County is the bluest one in the state.

[Dems Will Win]

11. Rasmussen is a very sneaky Republican Poll

For example Bush is up a good 8 points higher in approval on Rasmussen and they said Bush was close in NJ in '04 when he lost big.

Pay no attention...

[Ignacio Upton]

13. Every pollster had a close race in NJ in 2004

Not just Rasmussen. Polls tend to underestimate Democratic turnout in NJ, as witnessed by how Kerry did in 2004 and how Corzine did in 2005. HOWEVER, neither of them were ever losing in the polls to Bush or to Forrester. In contrast, Menendez is losing to Kean by FIVE points, and FOUR points in a Fairleigh-Dickinson University poll. Menendez is legitimately in trouble, and I think that NJ is our most endangered Senate seat, with Maryland being the second-most endangered, especailly if Mfume wins the primary.

[karynnj]

17. This poll was taken August 28 - this may make it flakey

For non- New Jerseyans, NJ schools start after Labor Day - later than most of the country. The last week in August is a week when may people with school age kids are on vacation. All the summer camps, sleep away and other end before this week - and the kids aren't back in school yet. So, you will find LOTS of people gone on vacation.

The corruption charge seems to have no merit. The organization has had funding for years and the rent was market rate. But corruption charges do resonate here - because we've had so many of them.

[Ignacio Upton]

22. It's all about image

Voters may not know the details of the real estate situation, but after Torecelli, McGreevey, and the Republican Freeholders and Mayors all getting caught, New Jerseyans are pissed off with corruption, and in NJ corruption is BIPARTISAN. With Kean Jr., he comes from a family that is perceived as above NJ's problems in corruption. It's all about perception.