al-Maliki is Shia, right? So are the 14 dead Pakistani Shia

[patrice]

in the Iraqi dessert evidence of al-Maliki's weakness?

Or are they, because they were Pakistani, evidence of Maliki's strength - in allowing this sacrifice to Sunni insecurity, because they were, afterall, outsiders and their deaths, therefore, justifiable to Iraqi Shia?

If Maliki's relationship to Iraqi Shia IS strong enough, Iraqi Shia will not be threatened by these deaths and will not, therefore, enhance their relationships with Iranian Shia. If the relationship is not strong enough, Iraqi Shia will be threatened by these and the rest of their Shia dead and that will drive them toward Iranian Shia.

Of course, even if al-Maliki's relationship to Iraqi Shia IS strong enough, Iraqi Shia could double-cross him and play both sides of the street anyway.

In either case, that puts us in a position of supporting Shia as Iran, with its large Shia population resists our control of its nuclear industry, so it's lose:lose for the U.S.

There are just too many ways this thing can be played by various Iraqis. It is hence IMPOSSIBLE to assure our opposition in Iraq that their victory is not possible. And as long as we can't do that, we can't "win" either.

[Eugene]

1. Iraq is in civil war. Nobody controls all of Baghdad.

Baghdad is checkerboarded with "no go" areas and one must travel
through hostile neigborhoods to get around. Everybody takes a risk.
I doubt that the foreign pilgrims were sacrificed. Al-Maliki can't
protect fellow Iraqi Shiites from the violence. Even the Shiite
militias can't protect everyone.

Al-Maliki and the national government are weak and his nominal
Shiite allies, like al-Sadr, are working to partition the country.
Even Ayatollah al-Sistani has thrown in the towel on national unity.
Iraq as a unified country is fast becoming a lost cause.

[patrice]

2. Thanks for the information.

I was just trying to comprehend what those Pakistani Shia were doing there (I mean it's not exactly a time for tourism or pilgrimages) and how they ended up dead when you'd think the Shia are ascendent. I was thinking about how Al Maliki could be double crossing both the Sunni and the Shia, while they try to double cross each other. Apparently that's an optimistic scenario.