Hurricane forcast is lowered again, down to 5 for the season

[n2doc]

Down to five: Hurricane forecast is lowered again

By ROBERT WELLER
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

DENVER -- A team of top hurricane researchers on Friday lowered its 2006 forecast for Atlantic hurricanes for the second time in a month, predicting a slightly below-average season with five hurricanes instead of seven. Two of the hurricanes will be intense, according to the team headed by forecaster William Gray at Colorado State University. His team predicted a 59 percent likelihood that a hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline in September, and a 35 percent chance of an intense hurricane. For October, the forecasters said there was a 14 percent chance a hurricane would strike the coast.

It was the second time the team had downgraded its expectations in the span of a month. Last spring, Gray's team predicted 17 named storms would form in the Atlantic basin during the June through November hurricane season. Team members lowered that to 15 in early August, and then to 13 in their latest forecast. Our August forecast was very high. It stunk," said team member Philip Klotzbach. "We didn't have the major formations we expected. There was a surprising amount of dry air. It choked them off."

As of Friday, five named storms had formed, including Ernesto, which briefly became the season's first hurricane this week and was moving north up the East Coast Friday as a tropical depression. The average storm count for the Atlantic basin is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. Klotzbach identified several factors for the changed forecast, including higher levels of West African dust over the Atlantic and a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific indicating a potential El Niño event this fall.

The National Hurricane Center has also lowered its Atlantic storms forecast since spring. In May, it predicted 13 to 16 named storms and eight to 10 hurricanes, with as many as six major ones. In early August, the center revised that to between 12 and 15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season set a record with 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes, including Katrina.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/283586_hurricane02.html

[Virginia Dare]

1. It only takes one cat 4 or 5 direct hit...

to cause a catastrophe, especially in a highly populated area.

The East Coast of the U.S. is extremely vulnerable, and they're due up for the big one.