Mexico - Breakdown coming?

[brokensymmetry]

Those who have been reading news about Mexico's election
are surely aware of the ongoing political crises. There
are, however, a couple additional factors worthy of
consideration.

1) Cantarell, Mexico's big offshore field, is in rapid
decline. You can read more here:
http://www.energybulletin.net/1651.html

2) As Cantarell declines, and Mexico's domestic oil
usage continues at the present pace or increases, Mexico
will face a loss of foreign trade earnings.

3) No matter how the present political confrontation
develops, half the population is sure to be disgruntled;
and probably angry.

4) It seems unlikely that the U.S. will welcome increased
flows of Mexican nationals. Whatever your views on the
issue, I speak to my perception of the political reality.
If this is true, remittances to Mexico are likely to decline.

5) Mexico is no longer the cheapest source of manufacturing.
China, perhaps India, along with other nations in the global
economy, all seek to attract manufacturing with cheap labor
costs. This seems to put further pressure on Mexico.

My conclusion: Mexico faces a variety of difficult financial
problems that will grow steadily worse. The new President
will not be accepted by half the population, and will likely
be blamed for a worsening economy. This will lead to
trouble. At the risk of engaging in hyperbole, I wonder if
civil war in Mexico is possible. Such things have happened.

The DU community includes a host of smart people with
good insights. I'd like to see what you think of the situation.

[mike_c]

1. I'm just waiting and watching this develop, right now....

But I will say this-- Mexico's left is pretty amazing. We could all learn something about democracy from them.

[brokensymmetry]

8. Absolutely true.

They have a passion we don't seem to be showing.

But we need to.

[1932]

9. and that will be the reason there won't be a civil war.

The left will eventually win and channel energies through legitimate avenues and will solve the country's problems.

[spindrifter]

2. You have hit a number of important issues in your post.

It is almost inevitable that Mexico's economic situation will beome more perilous. In addition, there are movements in Chiapas and Oaxaca that may provide sparks for revolutionary acts. Reduction in remittances will be devastating to many small towns, in particular.

[pooja]

3. Well, Vincent Fox couldn't even make his speech at the given location

tonight. Anything is possible with "them crazy mez-cans". It is odd to other countries how complacent America takes politics and voting duties... oh well.

[skids]

6) Mexico's climatology and environment is changing.

Mexico faces significant environmental challenges affecting almost every section of the country. Vast expanses of southern and southeastern tropical forests have been denuded for cattle-raising and agriculture. For example, tropical forests covered almost half of the state of Tabasco in 1940 but less than 10 % by the late 1980s. During the same period, pastureland increased from 20 to 60 % of the state's total area. Analysts reported similar conditions in other tropical sections of Mexico. Deforestation has contributed to serious levels of soil erosion nationwide. In 1985 the government classified almost 17 % of all land as totally eroded, 31 % in an accelerated state of erosion, and 38 % demonstrating signs of incipient erosion. Mexico has developed a Biodiversity Action Plan to address issues of endangered species and habitats that merit protection.

Soil destruction is particularly pronounced in the north and northwest, with more than 60 % of land considered in a total or accelerated state of erosion. Fragile because of its semiarid and arid character, the soil of the region has become increasingly damaged through excessive cattle-raising and irrigation with waters containing high levels of salinity. The result is a mounting problem of desertification throughout the region.

Mexico's vast coastline faces a different, but no less difficult, series of environmental problems. For example, inadequately regulated petroleum exploitation in the Coatzacoalcos-Minatitlán zone in the Gulf of Mexico has caused serious damage to the waters and fisheries of Río Coatzacoalcos. The deadly explosion that racked a working-class neighborhood in Guadalajara in April 1992 serves as an appropriate symbol of environmental damage in Mexico. More than 1,000 barrels of gasoline seeped from a corroded Mexican Petroleum (Petróleos Mexicanos--Pemex) pipeline into the municipal sewer system, where it combined with gases and industrial residuals to produce a massive explosion that killed 190 persons and injured nearly 1,500 others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_of_Mexico#Environmental_conditions

[Ian David]

4. If they're that willing to fight to protect the integrity of their votes..

then I welcome our brown-skinned brothers from the south to America and urge them to apply for citizenship and register to vote HERE.

[TomInTib]

5. The morale in Mexico has fallen thru the floor.

The Mexicans hung their collective hat on Fox being their saviour after all those years of PRI.

The Americans (read - Bush Admin) hung poor old Vicente out to dry after feeding him all manner of false assurances. He is screwed.

The people of Mexico have been been seeking Salvation through Leadership for generations.

It is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better at all.

[UTUSN]

6. China OWNS Mexico (& the U.S.). AMLO will sell it SOONER n/t

[autorank]

7. K&R Mexico Simply Needs Honest Government, Like US!!!

Excellent topic.

There are significant challenges facing the Mexican people. They come largely because, like us, they have a ruling class that is stealing everything that isn't nailed down and that ruling class includes our lovely representatives south of the border. Once factor not mentioned is the pollution in Mexico City which is debilitating. Mexico City has about 30% of the total population. Another is the lack of serious law enforcement. Residents report actually being on their own when crimes are committed. The police are not reliable.

The assets of Mexico are considerable. If cleaned up and preserved, it's a wonderful land filled with many, many bright creative people. In addition, the most important asset is the Mexican Revolution for Democracy. These are the largest crowds the world has seen for demonstrations for decades and they produced them 3 times in less than three weeks. The people recognize their disadvantages and are striking back with the resistance. The American press is just pathetic on this issue but there are some papers (e.g., La Journada) and internet groups, www.narconews.com, that have exceptional reporting.

An honest US government and an honest Mexican government collaborating together would make North America the hottest, most exciting corner of the world.

The Mexican People: Heroes of Democracy