QUESTIONING US ARREST STATISTICS
by Scott Christianson, (Source:Christian Science Monitor)
18 Jan 2006
SAND LAKE, N.Y. -- Policing in the United States has changed a lot during
the past 50 years. Higher education and training requirements have led to
greater police professionalism, and most departments' ranks have benefited
from huge increases of personnel, stunning technological advancements,
forensics breakthroughs, and affirmative action policies that presumably
have led to a more representative workforce sensitive to civil rights.
Policing's academic side has also prospered from decades of ample government
research grants.
-snip-
But discussions of police performance often fail to note another important
but overlooked trend, apparently unrelated to the falling crime rate:
Federal statistics reveal that the nation's "clearance rate" - the
percentage of cases for which police arrest or identify a suspect - has
fallen dramatically. And this shift is fraught with implications.
The arrest clearance rate for reported homicides recently dropped to about
60 percent compared with about 90 percent 50 years ago. This means that a
murderer today has about a 40 percent chance of avoiding arrest compared
with less than 10 percent in 1950. The record for other FBI Index Crimes is
even more dismal: The clearance rates have sunk to 42 percent for forcible
rape, 26 percent for robbery, and 13 percent for burglary and motor vehicle
theft, all way down from earlier eras.
Judging a police department or the criminal justice system as a whole based
simply on arrest statistics wouldn't be wise, for the police can and do
fulfill many crucial functions in our society, such as maintaining public
order and helping to protect citizens from terrorist attack. But ignoring
measures of how the police deal with reported serious crime isn't smart
either.
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