With record heat waves in US why no hurricanes?

[Bandit]

Why are there so few tropical storms this year? By this time last year we were up to the Ks in naming the hurricanes. This year we are only at the Es and no real hurricanes only tropical depressions or storms. I was under the impression it was the warm waters that were the main causes for the development of these storms. The waters are the warmest they have been in years but still no major storms. Not that I wish for any and am damn glad there haven't been any but I am confused. It is no wonder so many people have a hard time in accepting the Global Warming warnings...

[TechBear_Seattle]

1. Extreme windshear around the equator

Basically, the winds are too strong for a tropical depression to build up steam. Not a good sign.

[bryant69]

2. The nice thing about global warming

is that it is the explanation for any climitological change and no matter what happens, it's "not a good sign."

I'm not saying I dont' believe you - you're probably right.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[bdamomma]

3. excuse my ignorance but why isn't that a good sign?

could you explain that to me I'm curious.

[Bandit]

4. I don't get it

The winds are too strong to build up strong winds?????:crazy:

[Dr.Phool]

5. The strong upper level winds

Shear off the upper convection levels of the storms, and they can't develop.

[meldroc]

22. And this is bad for what reason?

Seriously, there might be a reason why this bodes badly for climate, but I don't know what that reason is. I just know that because of these winds, we're not getting bad hurricanes this year.

[nashville_brook]

8. why is that 'not a good sign' ?? does it point to something worse?

links! i need something to read while i ride out Ernesto.

[sutz12]

37. Yes, I think so....

Hurricanes are nature's way to "bleed off" some of the excess heat energy. The lack of storms could result in a long term increase in warming.

Please note that most climatologists don't really expect an increase in the number of storms, just in the severity of those that form.

It does seem odd that there have been fewer storms as of this particular date, but that is confusing weather with climate. Unfortunately, there is plenty of time left in hurricane season, and late season storms can be quite intense. As I pointed out above, without the early season storms to help moderate ocean heating, things could get pretty dicey this fall.

[Xenotime]

6. I have wondered the same thing...

In Spike Lee's HBO Katrina show, NOAA predicted in May more named storms for this year than 2005......:shrug:

[waiting for hope]

15. Then after that, gas prices went up

again - then about a month ago, the same guy who made those predictions retracted what he had said....hhmmm, did gas prices go down? Not.

[DinahMoeHum]

7. Uh, Bandit, be careful what you wish for. This IS prime hurricane

season right now, after all.

"September/remember"





:yoiks:

[Bandit]

9. No wishes just questions

I just don't understand it.

[LynzM]

10. We're up to "John" as of this morning....

Not sure we're so far behind as you think... :scared:

[Individualist]

17. John is a Pacific hurricane

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Florence.

[LynzM]

21. Ah, good point....

Sorry! My bad :blush:

[UTUSN]

11. Cause Shrub don't need to funnel big cash to Jeb Crow Shrub this year n/t

[ComerPerro]

12. God is protecting us, because Bush asked him to

[bdamomma]

18. talking about God

read this article.


http://www.rawstory.com/showarticle.php?src=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbc.co.uk%2F2%2Fhi%2Fhealth%2F5296728.stm


Doubt cast over brain 'God spot'

Researchers studied the brain activity of 15 nuns
There is no single "God spot" in the brain, Canadian scientists say.
A University of Montreal team found Christian mystical experiences are mediated by several brain regions.

Researchers asked 15 nuns to recount mystical experiences while studying them on MRI scanners, the journal, Neuroscience Letters reported.

[ComerPerro]

19. Study 15 nuns to see if they all have the same G Spot, eh?

[Nay]

25. Oh. you are a bad boy...n/t

:rofl:

[notadmblnd]

13. It hasn't been particularly hot where I live

we've had maybe one week with the temps in the upper 90's - 100's. Ususally in Michigan we suffer the entire Months of July and August from a combination of heat and humidity. It hasn't happened this year.

[onenote]

27. I don't think Michigan weather has much to do with hurricanes in the gulf

[notadmblnd]

36. and heat waves aren't limited to the gulf

nt

[spindrifter]

14. Well, the Chinese might dispute this--

they have had one of the strongest cyclones in recent history. Then there is Cat. 4 John in the E. Pacific aimed at Mexico.

[xkenx]

16. One has nothing to do with the other.

What happens with hurricanes in a given year comes from localized and current effects, not on the general global warming creep. If there's anything consistent about the professional hurricane prognosticators, it's that they are consistently off in their predictions. Mainly because conditions they observe before the hurricane season can change. The formation of hurricanes, their intensity, track are a complicated set of conditions for water temperatures, wind currents aloft, position of the Bermuda high. Early on, Ernesto was predicted to become a major hurricane affecting the central-to-western Gulf of Mexico. Look what happened, and that's with much shorter term forecasting. At the beginning of a hurricane season, you may as well stick a wet finger in the air to predict them. The last half of this season could have a continuation of the benign conditions, or there could be several hurricanes.

[RaleighNCDUer]

20. Last year was an extraordinary year.

This year is more ordinary - in 96(?) Fran hit on Sept 6 (IIRC). A couple years later, Floyd was Sept 16. There's still plenty of time for them to form up, and because of the increased water temps when they do, they may be doozies.

The real danger is that because of the warmer waters they will hold their strength much longer and reach further up the coast. A Cat 3 hitting the outer banks is one thing. A Cat 3 hitting Atlantic City or NYC would be something else again.

[windbreeze]

24. I finally figured out

what IIRC means..DUH...but on the subject....

Doesn't hurricane formation have to do with ocean currents??? hasn't there been information released about the Atlantic current and how it's changing/slowing down due to the melting of glaciers and fresh water flowing into the ocean from the massive melt...??? and wouldn't that be a result of global warming?

In Feb of this year, in Wa state...we had one hell of a storm..my neighborhood had no electricity for 12 hours...our NW channel showed on dopler radar, a storm that looked exactly like a "hurricane", that had formed over land, it even had an eye.....I couldn't believe what I was seeing...even the weatherman was having a serious disbelief moment, when he was talking about it...I don't have a link to that one, because the coverage was local cable...

Then in April...from the 19th through the 21st...There was another strange "storm" over land..it sat in one spot and did nothing but spin for 3 days.....it was positioned over several states..including Mon/Wy/ND/SD/Neb/Wis/ and parts of several other midwestern states.... ...here's a link...

http://tinyurl.com/h68cx

Go a little over 1/2 way down the page..`there is a US map with a satellite picture of the storm...it gives the particulars....see what you think....

IF "hurricanes" start forming OVER LAND, during the winter/spring...when temps are cold/colder...then we could have serious problems we haven't even taken into consideration yet...
windbreeze

[LostinVA]

23. A heat wave doesn't cause hurricanes

And, there's still plenty of time for one -- September and October have historically been very, very bad for dangerous hurricanes...

[dsc]

26. they just did J

[onenote]

28. in the pacific --

Pacific storms are named independently of atlantic storms

[dsc]

34. Oh I guess I misunderstood

I thought my local station was saying that John might impact NC clearly I was having problems both listening and driving in the rain.

[onenote]

29. Rove

:sarcasm:

[donco6]

30. The hemisphere is having some big storms.

Just not on our continent. Check out Ioke hitting Wake Is. and John off Mexico.

[Jacobin]

31. History of hurricanes

Shows periods of 40 years or so where they are more numerous and intense followed by 40 years or so when they are fewer in number and less intense.

We are currently in an intense cycle. However, even within these high periods, there are some years with fewer storms.

That said, we are just now entering prime time hurricane season.

Hot weather doesn't create hurricanes, except that when the ocean temperatures are higher from higher air temperatures, they tend to get stronger.

The gulf of mexico basin produced from one to twenty hurricanes a year over the last hundred years or so

The number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes may undergo a 50-70 year cycle. Although more common since 1995, few above-normal hurricane seasons occurred during 1970-1994. Destructive hurricanes struck frequently from 1926-60, including many major New England hurricanes. A record 21 Atlantic tropical storms formed in 1933, only recently exceeded in 2005. Tropical hurricanes occurred infrequently during the seasons of 1900-1925; however, many intense storms formed 1870-1899. During the 1887 season, 19 tropical storms formed, of which a record 4 occurred after 1 November and 11 strengthened into hurricanes. Few hurricanes occurred in the 1840s to 1860s; however, many struck in the early 1800s, including an 1821 storm that made a direct hit on New York City, which some historical weather experts say may have been as high as Category 4 in strength.

These unusually active hurricane seasons predated satellite coverage of the Atlantic basin that now enables forecasters to see all tropical cyclones. Before the satellite era began in 1961, tropical storms or hurricanes went undetected unless a ship reported a voyage through the storm. The official record, therefore, could miss storms in which no ship experienced gale-force winds, recognized it as a tropical storm (as opposed to a high-latitude extra-tropical cyclone, a tropical wave, or a brief squall), returned to port, and reported the experience.

LOTS more here, if you're interested:

http://www.gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?template=wiki&text=Hurricane

[BeFree]

32. My theory...

I tend to look at weather systems as giant revolving balls of moisture laden and dry air reacting against each other across the face of this little blue ball spinning in space.

What we have now is a giant mass of dry air moving south with it's frontal boundary draped across the middle of the US. As the dry air moves south it squeezes the tropical moist air, rubbing against it and making that ball of moist air move.

Move it does and that movement, when cyclonic, makes hurricanes form.

At this time, near the central US, where I live, this cold front is the first of the season and lookie there, we got ourselves half a hurricane: Ernesto.

September is the season for cold fronts to move down from Canada. And that's a fact.

[mmonk]

33. As more systems move across

from Africa and new tropical depressions develop in the south and the water along the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the east coast stays warm, there's plenty of time for storms.

[treestar]

35. Are you complaining about a lack of hurricanes?

Why do you hate America?

Just kidding.

[Xithras]

38. Because warmer water does NOT cause more storms.

Many of us tried to point this out last year, but were seemingly ignored. The number of storms last year was a statistical fluke, and nothing more. Not one reputable meteorologist would or has claimed that global warming will increase the number of storms forming in the Atlantic. Warmer water can make EXISTING storms slightly more powerful, but there is zero, ZERO evidence that increased water temperatures generate more storms.

In order to get a hurricane, you need a pre-existing weather disturbance (in English, an ordinary storm) near the equator to begin moving northward. If the rate of travel is just right, and wind shear is low, the coriolis effect wll kick in and start the whole thing twisting. Now, if the upper atmosphere is cool AND the lower atmosphere is hot, you'll get a circulating storm center. If the ocean air is humid enough, you get convective forces running that fire up the winds. While all of this DOES require that the ocean be warm, the effects of the exact surface temperature don't come into play until AFTER the storm has already begun to build power. At that point, global warming derived surface temperature increases can increase the power of the storm by imparting more thermal energy into them.

Global warming does have the potential to increase the power of the storms, but has no effect on their number (yet!). Interestingly, there is a theory that global warming may even end up REDUCING the number of hurricanes, but it doesn't get much press time because it isn't "dramatic enough". Hurricanes require a layer of cold air on top of a layer of warm air to get started, and a very specific temperature difference between the two is needed. Some scientists believe that global warming will eventually increase the temperature of the lower portion of the upper atmosphere, and that thermal expansion of the lower atmosphere will increase the upper altitude of the troposphere. Both of these effects will interrupt thermal convection within the storm, which is required in order for it to become a hurricane.