Ernesto Discussion #12

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

Now, I know I am not a "weather professional" or anything like that, but... I have looked at every storm track since 1950 and the only strong hurricane I can find which passed between Haiti and Cuba which then turned north across Cuba, hitting Florida like the current forecast is Hurricane Cleo in 1964.

Others which passed through this straight all went west into the gulf.

Eloise in 1975
Claudette in 1979
Allen in 1980
Lilly in 2002

From Dr. Jeff Masters at wunderground...
Furthermore, Ernesto is over waters of 30-31 C (86-88 F), and these waters warm up to nearly 90F in the narrow channel between Jamaica and Cuba. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the total heat content available to fuel rapid intensification is high. In fact, the highest heat content waters anywhere in the Atlantic, 120 kJ/cm^2, are found here. Anything over 90 kJ/cm^2 are considered high enough to fuel rapid intensification




Now, why (and I know weather is not a static study, still history of storms and tracks is not well understood) are all the models so different today? The ridge of low pressure was there yesterday, it did exactly what was forcast, what has changed?

and yes :tinfoilhat: I am sensing some pressure from the administration to de-New Orleans the forcast, Concerned about the anniversary in an election year, with another storm and still no response. Unrest concerns. :tinfoilhat: off

I don't know, I am just not buying the models 100%

[stop the bleeding]

1. thanks for the info about the extra hot water between Jamaica and Cuba

I am in Tampa - So I watch these all of the time - Jeff Masters is the bomb

[mike_c]

2. those water temps are amazing....

Wow.

[W_HAMILTON]

3. I don't know what caused them to change so much

But in years of following hurricanes (I live along the SE coast), hurricane paths almost always seem to err more eastwardly (or north-easterwardly) than not.

So, while it is a bit surprising that the path seemed to jump eastward so much in what seemed like overnight, it's not all that surprising that there has been a jump towards it hitting more eastern areas as time has passed. It almost ALWAYS seems to turn out that way.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. I found a program...

For Windows that will track the storm from your desktop, without a browser being open. It's called "Hurricane View". Pretty neat.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

9. Apparently they just announced a non-resident evacuation.

So that means I will be busy tomorrow kicking everyone out of the resort that I manage. Gee, won't I be Miss Popularity. :)

[BadgerKid]

14. Evacuation of Visitors: Monroe Co./Fla. Keys

Hurricane Local Statement

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-271830-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING
100 PM TODAY...
...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN
EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

[Warpy]

5. The water off the west coast of Florida is also quite hot

but whatever steering currents will cause this storm to veer so sharply to the right may also shear the top off it, weakening it.

That's what I'm hoping for, anyway.

As of now, it's slated to cross the middle of Cuba and head northeast to Florida.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

7. According to our local weather channels (and I live in the Keys)

the water is a couple of degrees cooler than last year. I believe this because this summer we have had a lot of rain and wind, keeping the waters stirred up. Last year it was dead hot and still without a ripple and the water was bathtub hot.

[Bill McBlueState]

6. i don't know if this will help...

But any politician with an R after his name is pretty much on the bad side of the people who develop weather and climate models, what with the way they've been intimidating scientists who study climate change. The weathermen (and I mean actual meteorologists, not tv weather personalities) are not going to participate in a government plan to tweak hurricane forecasts.

[uppityperson]

8. I just posted an interesting comparison of projected tracks, Katrina/Ernes

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2477878&mesg_id=2478261
The Katrina one changes as time passed and they updated it, the Ernesto one is whatever is currently forecasted as possible tracks.

[don954]

10. the water here in Palm Beach is so hot that I had to get OUT of the

water to cool off, instead of the other way around. Easily high 80s.

[HereSince1628]

11. The models' starting points get reset to take into account what

has happened. And so day to day the models can make very different projections. You should know that model runs are not always consistent even with the same program. Sometimes they are dramatically inconsistent. You are right in not buying the models 100%, even the model makers say not to do so.

[nosillies]

12. I've heard local forecasters (central FL) hesistantly projecting this new

track for a few days now, seemingly directly disagreeing with the national forecasts. They've been saying that the cold front would most likely shift things away from NO and push it where it's going now, or a different front could push it well to the southwest, striking southern Texas/northern Mexico. But it will always be much more sensational and exciting to keep it on a NO track.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

13. Prediciting The Path Is A Tough Game. But There Is No Reason To Doubt The

current model in my opinion. It may change, of course, as they always do, but at this time I am confident that the best information they can use is accurate and that their forecast is of sound science.

[Blackhatjack]

15. IMHO Being the bulls eye target in today's forecast model is best.....

...Since there is about a 99% chance that the hurricane will NOT pass over you since the model has a 99% chance it will change direction before it gets to you.

The truth is that hurricane prediction is always better than announced to the public. However, the reason we never hear about it is that public officials are wary about advising people to evacuate and move in a particular direction since this could direct a mass exodus that gets stuck in traffic, and it could put more people in the actual path of the storm if it changes direction at the last minute.