Update on TS Ernesto

[Aviation Pro]

First, the following graphic is only a forecast so it should be treated as such. With that said, a regional effort should be planned for a mobilization by the citizens of the Southeast to evacuate every last soul (plus their pets) in the event that Ernesto continues on this path toward the Gulf Coast states. The Bush administration has already proven that they are incompetent and incapable of doing anything useful and it is up to the citizenry to solve these problems. Here's the graphic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/114506W_sm.gif

For the latest text discussion, go here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/260845.shtml?

[malaise]

1. Here's an update thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1987034

[madokie]

2. I'm seeing that maybe clipping haiti and then cuba will turn

this thing to the right across florida and up the east coast

[malaise]

3. He's coming straight

through Jamaica as a TS or minimum hurricane if he slows down. I don't know where he'll go after that.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_model.html

[Jacobin]

4. Here are some predictive models

Its forecast to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf by Tuesday or so.
Hoping it fizzles out or at least hits a lightly populated area.

[malaise]

5. Well tomorrow evening I'll be able to tell

you which model was accurate re Jamaica. Our met office is usually very accurate and they're saying South coast. If they are right then the Yucatan P. and Texas better get ready.

[Aviation Pro]

8. The models are coming into alignment....

...with a turn to the NNW. LA to the FL Panhandle is my guess at this point. If the upper level ridge weakens I suspect Ernesto will swing east. The WFOs do have predictive software that is very accurate (although still in Beta test mode - I saw a demonstration of it at the Key West WFO last year when Ophelia was doing her dance in the Atlantic) but it is not available to the public.

If I didn't know better, I'd swear that Max Mayfield is conjuring up this storm as a giant FU to Little Monkey's administration.

[soothsayer]

6. Is he going to make hurricane status? If not, a TS isn't so bad.

Most places need the rain.

[malaise]

7. All forcasters agree that

conditions suggest that this will be a hurricane by the time it passes Jamaica. What's more is he's looking more organized, pressure is dropping and he's getting stronger.

We need the water and thankfully we won't feel the worst of this one.

[uppityperson]

9. Predicting to get worse.