Tropical Depression #5 is starting to feel scary...anyone got any info?

[wanpete]

[Bumblebee]

1. here is a story

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/25/tropical.weather.ap/index.html

[wanpete]

4. Thanks! I'm keeping my eyes on this one. Maybe it's just the jitters

because of the Katrina anniversary. I hope it doesn't strengthen into a horrific storm.

[DinahMoeHum]

2. Your best source, IMO is with National Hurricane Center / NOAA. . .

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[stop the bleeding]

3. from Jeff Masters

Tropical Depression Five is looking much more organized this morning, and will likely be named Ernesto with the NHC 11am EDT advisory. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA using a the standard "Dvorak technique" are the same for Debby and TD 5 this morning. Since Debby has a name, Ernesto should getting his name, as well. The visible satellite images from this morning show a large and expanding area of intense thunderstorms, some solid spiral bands forming, and the beginnings of some decent upper-level outflow. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:40am EDT showed winds of up to 50 mph near the center, and I imagine this will be the maximum sustained wind speeds for the 11am advisory.


more at linky


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608

[stop the bleeding]

5. and from hurricanecity

http://hurricanecity.com/

Click on the link for model runs in the upper porting of the globe showing the storm tracks

[stop the bleeding]

6. and once it is official

this one is great as well

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/


can you tell I live in Florida?

[wanpete]

9. I can understand why Floridians would know all of this information...

may you have a peaceful hurricane season this year...

[stop the bleeding]

10. so far so good

and thank you

I see you are not too far aways as well, I will be taking a trip at the end of September to Dalonegha(sorry if spelled wrong)

[welshTerrier2]

7. here's a somewhat technical analysis ...

one line of thinking is that upper air patterns may pull the storm apart on Sunday ... however, some of the computer models expect the storm to survive this period of wind shear and suggest that the storm will begin to significantly intensify by Monday ...

if it does, it looks like Hurricane Ernesto (tropical depression #5) is heading for the Gulf ...

check out this link for further analysis:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608

[area51]

8. link

Link to 5-day forecast map.

[gula]

11. Good thing Cuba doesn't have a bush in charge.

[Mojorabbit]

12. It will be Ernesto by 5pm.

No way it can't be. It is firing up some convection just now.

[soothsayer]

13. weather underground already is calling it Ernesto

[soothsayer]

14. Only one model so far moves it into the Gulf (towards NOLA)

The other four have it hitting mexico

[proud patriot]

15. How warm are the Gulf Waters right now ?

:-(

[tkmorris]

16. It is Ernesto officially now, and....

Here is the latest NHC discussion on it:

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

If any part of that is confusing just let me know and I'll try to translate it. In short, the storm has the potential to get a good deal stronger but WHERE it will go is still very much up in the air. In any case, any threat to the US is several days away still. Plenty of time to watch and prepare.