Heads up Gulf Coasters...Ernesto is headed your way..

[SoCalDem]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025435.shtml?5day?large
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/025435W_sm.gif

[longship]

1. This is going to be a biggie, just like next November's election.

TD5 is going to be TS "Ernesto" some time tomorrow morning. Once it gets a-feedin' on that warm Gulf water, it's going to strengthen.

As NOAA was predicting two weeks ago, the dearth of tropical storms this year is about to end in a somewhat spectacular way.

Kind of like the political storm that is brewing in the USA. But, unlike a tropical depression, this political storm is going to bring on a tsunami in November.

The Dems are going to sweep into power in Congress and ChimpCo is going to be fucked. There's no longer any doubt. At least six Senators, and a huge number of Representatives are going to the Dems in November. The prognosticators may not be saying so publically, but that's what every one of them is thinking.

There's not a single Dem Congressional seat in serious jeopardy.

[uppityperson]

2. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com says this...(and a bit more)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=478&tstamp=200608
Current conditions in the islands
Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning, and wind gusts as high as 51 mph. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and sustained winds of 33 mph with wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center. Radar from Martinique shows the heavy bands of rain spreading over the islands. Winds on Martinique have gusted to 35 mph so far today.

Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.

The computer models
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) computer model runs were all initialized with the old center position, and thus are unreliable. We'll have to wait until the 18Z (2pm EDT) model runs are available late tonight before we can put much stock in any of the computer model solutions. With this in mind, here is my what the latest 12Z computer models say:

The Canadian model continues to be very consistent, and develops Ernesto into a hurricane south of Jamaica, that then tracks into the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS model is also consistent, assuming a more southerly track will occur with little development due to close proximity to the South American coast. This forecast is already incorrect, and can be discounted. The GFS takes a weak tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Saturday, then into the Bahamas. The GFDL takes a strong tropical storm into Haiti on Sunday, then on a long path over eastern Cuba. On Tuesday, the GFDL has the system emerging from the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm and passing through the Florida Keys. The run-to-run consistency of the GFDL has been poor, and both the GFDL and GFS have not done a good job forecasting the initial track of the storm so far.

[Warpy]

3. Mebbe not

Debby looked like it was going to be something serious a couple of days ago, and it's fizzled and fallen apart.

Ernesto may be a wimp, too.

La Nina may be contributing to the nothing season in the Atlantic and the miserable season in the Pacific.

[skids]

4. If the one coming off Africa's coast doesn't beat TD5

If this one takes it's time developing, and that one following Debby's heels hits the water running and pumps up fast, this could end up with the "f" name. Rather unlikely though simply because TD5 is in our back yard and thus easier to measure.

[pitohui]

5. sigh

i hope not but there's sure a chance of it

gas up, people, it's gonna be a long 4 weeks

[Rowdyboy]

6. We're booked for the Provincial in the French Quarter next Thursday..

through Labor Day Monday. It will be our first trip back since Katrina. God, I hope it comes off. Its Southern Decadence Days!

[SoyCat]

7. My husband and I will be there too but only Friday/Saturday. Let's all

keep our fingers crossed for the people of New Orleans and the whole Gulf coast. We've been through this way too many times...

[Rowdyboy]

8. Mississippi and Louisiana deserve a break this year.....

Please, just a short break. I'm 3 hours inland and Katrina really screwed us up even this far north.

[SoyCat]

9. Oh, Rowdy...I know what you mean. We were hit by Ivan in '04 & Dennis

in '05. Even Katrina caused large enough waves to eat away our dunes even worse than they already were.

[newspeak]

10. Don't hit NOLA!!!!

I'm praying it don't hit LA!!!!!!!! Maybe it will fizzle out before it hits land.

[SoyCat]

11. I've been on edge just thinking about it. Let's just hope that we can

"will" it and any other storms away and that they fizzle.

[Behind the Aegis]

12. You ready to have fun?!?!

:evilgrin:

I don't feel this storm will do anything...maybe some rain, but that will help cool things off for 15 minutes! :) It may even take a downward turn, toward Central America before dying...we can hope!

[SoCalDem]

13. I hope you are right

I wonder if the SS will even allow/force junior to go there now that a storm's a'comin:)

[Imagevision]

14. No worries, Chertoff says he's ready this time...

[opihimoimoi]

15. Chertoff??? He is a sad pathetic JOKE...a tragic one to boot.