POLL: (D) Ford leads (R) Corker for senate seat, DEMS MAY RETAKE SENATE

[Grebrook]

Harold Ford Jr. out in Tennessee and James Webb out in Virginia are the real wild cards in this election. The Dems are probably going to take the following Senate seats:

Ohio
Montana
Missouri
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania

That would leave the Senate tied 50-50. Which means either Webb must prevail against George Allen in Virginia, or Harold Ford must defeat Bob Corker in Tennessee. Early polls in the Tennessee race showed Ford leading slightly, but then Corker took the lead. The primary was so nasty that it might have given Ford the edge.

The new poll finds Ford leading Corker 44%-42%.

http://www.tfponline.com/QuickHeadlines.asp?sec=l&URL=http%3A%2F%2Fepaper%2Ewehco%2Ecom%2FWebChannel%2FShowStory%2Easp%3FPath%3DChatTFPress%2F2006%2F08%2F23%26ID%3DAr00903

[derby378]

1. Or Barbara Ann Radnofsky can defeat Kay Bailey Hutchison in TX

She needs all the help she can get.

http://www.radnofsky.com

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. I wouldn't count on 1) Missouri, or 2) Pennsylvania

"probably going to take..." is a bit optimistic at this point.

[WCGreen]

8. Missouri is more iffy than PA though....

[jn2375]

11. new poll here in pa has Casey 51% Santorum 37%

Santorum is toast, no doubt in my mind. People here is PA are tried of being embarrassed by Santorum's behavor, he's gone. Casey just now starting to air ads till election, this should put Santorum away for good.

[WI_DEM]

19. Santorum has been consistently the underdog for over a year

I think PA is a fairly good bet.

[CollegeDUer]

3. I read there was a 3% turnout in the Dem primary in Virginia

With turnouts so low, you could really put any kind of Dem you wanted in there.

[WCGreen]

7. The last poll showed Allen with only a 4 point

lead over Webb....

And Webb into the low forties...

That is really a good showing...

Allen has the personality to cause him to self destruct...

[cyclezealot]

16. Webb was Reagan's secretary of navy

My question. Of course we are for Webb. But, is his conversion to Democratic for real. Are we sure. He is pretty Repug on most issues other than the Iraq disaster?

[WCGreen]

20. Well, look at Virginia....

It is and always has been a rather conservative state...

He would be a good fit for the whole state whereas Allen represents the rural areas and turns his back on the metroplotian parts of the state...

Webb is a good fit...

He was seriously angry about the war in Iraq...

He felt betrayed by his party....

[Stinky The Clown]

31. Webb's also got some realistic views on race relations

He's no sugar coater, but he's respectful and realistic.

[PaDem]

21. Webb will be one of the most conservative Democrats in the senate

which is a significant upgrade over one of the most conservative members of the senate, period. Casey will be much the same. Getting rid of two repulsive ideologues far outweighs embracing a couple of moderates in this case. In Virginia, it's necessary to run a moderate. In PA, Casey had the name recognition in this state necessary to beat Santorum with his war chest.

[cyclezealot]

24. when subjects like budget priorites, judicial appointments

come up, will Webb jump ship?

[PaDem]

27. I think he's a bit of an unknown as far as that goes.............

but I suspect he'll be on the right side of issues more than half the time.

[cyclezealot]

28. Does he appear to be running with

the assistance of the state Democratic party apparatus or is her running as an independent Democrat? That might offer a clue. If he distances himself from the Democratic party, that says something. Then his motivation might just be a pragmatic statment about the sleeze Bush brought on the US with his phony war.

[TheFarseer]

38. he's made an issue out of stopping outsourcing

that's a good start. Certainly good enough to make me want to give him a chance.

[Sanity Claws]

4. In doing your counting, what did you assume regarding

Connecticut? That Lamont wins? If Lieberman wins, we lose a Democratic seat.

[loudsue]

6. I disagree. If LIEberman loses, we get Lamont -- a REAL democrat.

:kick:

[Sanity Claws]

12. I think you misunderstood my post

If Lieberman wins, we lose a democratic seat. I still want to know how the person who posted this thread counted CT.

[Beetwasher]

13. Not Necessarily True

Lieberman is currently claiming he will caucus w/ the Dems, so if he wins, technically it would be as if the seat went to a Dem (if he's not full of shit, which is quite possible).

[Sanity Claws]

14. But it's up to the Dems to decide whether to allow him to

caucus with them. I hope they don't. He's just a mole. Do you have any idea of the poster was assuming with respect to CT when he did his count?

[Beetwasher]

17. Heh?

Why would the Dems NOT let him caucus w/ them? That would be silly. When Jeffords went indy they let Jeffords caucus w/ them and it gave them control of the Senate. I'm not sure of the rules, but there's no way in hell the Dems would NOT allow Lieberman to caucus w/ them and give up control of the Senate. I'm not sure they can deny him the ability to caucus w/ them anyway, it may in fact be totally up to him to decide.

I'm assuming the OP counts CT in the Dem column, as well they should, since whomever wins will most likely caucus w/ the Dems, whether it's Lamont or Lieberman.

[cyclezealot]

25. with the Iraq disaster pending.

Some suggest BUsh's best way to dump RUmsfield is to replace him with Liebermann. And still the Repugs get a new senate seat, being CN's governor is likely a REpug.
I think this likely. Great move for BUsh, to have the Iraq flak a bipartisan affair, when it comes time for BUsh to cut and run. GOP gets its senate seat. Democrats overlook Iraq debacle.
My question is Lieberman so ideologically stupid to want to be secretary of defense when the debacle comes. I think the answer is yes.

[cyclezealot]

26. With the civil war pending.

one would be crazy to want to be Sec of Defense. Remember the copters on the roof of the US embassy in Saigon. We fear this is how the IRaq tragedy will end. And no wonder BUsh is reported to be in a funk. He and we all fear rockets reigning down on US tanks. Lieberman wants to govern over that tragedy.
Would be interesting to see if Lieberman's memoirs will be as grueling as Sec of Defenses' Robert McNamara.

[warrens]

23. Lieberman will caucus with the dems

So we don't lose the seat.

[Hippo_Tron]

37. Lieberman will likely caucus with the Democrats should he be re-elected

Otherwise he won't be able to look his colleagues in the eye ever again.

[berni_mccoy]

5. Well, well, well, it looks like Howard Dean's 50-state strategy

may just work!!! woot!

[LSparkle]

9. Go, Harold Ford!

I'm hoping that VA goes for Webb, too -- no wonder * is having to raise money for Macaca Allen!

[bluestateguy]

10. Ford has quietly come back to make a race out of it

He's an impressive fellow. Barack Obama may have some competition to be the first black Democratic presidential nominee.

[jsamuel]

15. That doesn't even include Jack Carter in NV

as a comment to the post above mine, I would not support Ford for President. (very strongly)

[fasttense]

18. Allen is toast. He is such a scum bag even racists are embarrassed by his

bigotry and nastiness. He doesn't have a chance in hell according to some repuke Virginia pundits I heard on the radio this morning. That book his sister wrote about him seems to be making the rounds in Virginia too and it ain't nice.

[UnityDem]

22. McCaskill needs help in Missouri

She just can't seem to shake no-Talent. This race is very winnable. Any DU'ers that live in Missouri or surrounding states need to volunteer to help out in this race.
Please go to Claire's website and signup:

http://www.claireonline.com/

[Blackhatjack]

29. Dems Are Not Using Their Strongest Argument To The Electorate...

..."When Democrats Are Elected As A Majority(in the House/in the Senate) We Will Investigate To Find Out What Has Been Done Wrong, AND We Will Fix It. Period. Republicans Have Had This Same Opportunity To Investigate and Fix Our Problems Since 2000, And Have Done Nothing. We Will Change Course. We Will Be Different. Vote Democratic in November, And Let's Get To Work."

I think people are ready for there to be subpoenoes and investigations to get to the truth as long as they see a connection with a change for the better coming out of it. Dems who run from the idea that investigations will turn the voters off are missing the boat. It needs to be front and center along with a clear message that we will use that information to change course and put America back on the right track.

People are hungry for CHANGE. It shows up in polls, it resonates with people on the street. It is the one proposal that Republicans cannot adopt because to do so is to admit they have been doing the wrong thing all along.

[The Count]

30. Or, the votes are actually counted....sigh...

[kentuck]

32. I think the Allen-Webb race is the key..

If Webb wins, we will take the Senate.

[durrrty libby]

33. Webb, Ford and Casey wins would truly be huge.

I hope people turn out in droves

Does anyone know if dem registration is up in these states?

That would be a good sign.

[buddysmellgood]

34. Remember a Democrat needs at least 55 percent of the vote to win.

A tie goes to the Republicans. They control the vote count.

[Hippo_Tron]

41. Depends on the state

The only one that I am particularly concerned about is Ohio. Democrats are in high state office in all of the other states with close races.

[longship]

35. Dems *are* going to take back both sides of the Capital Bldg!!!

The Senate is going to be six, maybe seven or eight seats. That includes the possible two I's (Lieberman) in the Dem caucus.

Even the most conservative prognasticators (in the classic sense, not the neocon sense) are predicting a House takeover. It's going to be much greater than anybody is predicting in the House. At this time, no Democratic Party House seat is in jeopardy.

November is going to be a Democratic Party TSUNAMI.

There's absolutely nothing left for the neocons. The only thing they know how to do is what they've already tried. It is no longer working. The country is totally soured on the idea of business as usual.

"Stay the course" is all they have. To advocate for change is to admit that they were wrong all along. As true ideologues, that is something that they cannot do. They are going to be hoisted by their own petard in November.

They're gonna reap the whirlwind. Not even Diebold is going to help them this time.

Watch.

[paulk]

39. that's the spirit!

I say a minimum 40 seat gain in the HOuse - maybe 45.

[longship]

40. All the prognosticators have the same info.

They're playing it safe because the data is so-o-o-o-o far out of wack. It's very risky to say that fifty House seats may turn over. But that's what every one of them is thinking. It could be as many as ten in the Senate, but seven is more likely.

I'm watching the Lamont race as a rough measure. If Lieberman starts falling behind there's going to be no more doubt about what is going to happen in November.

As the Freeper said, This is HUGH111111. I am SERIES1111

[paulk]

42. I've heard that 50 seat number from Republican pollsters!

can't remember where or link - but, it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Expecially when you see stories like this:


http://www.westerndemocrat.com/

[Hippo_Tron]

36. Probably is an overstatement, it's still going to be tough to take those 5

But the sixth will definitely be George Felix Allen Jr.'s seat or the open seat in Tennessee.