What will the October Surprise be to help GOP in 2006 election?

[yurbud]

In 2004, there was increased hype about terrorist attacks, Rush Limbaugh talked about the people jumping from the World Trade Center on 9/11, the Bushies floated the idea of canceling the election in case of a terrorist attack, and two terrorist tapes were released right before the election, including one from Osama.

While it is already clear the motif for fall will be war and terror, what will the specific form be?

[bryant69]

1. I'd go for the Osama Tape

That's somethat reasonably likely to happen even if you don't believe Osama is teh Republican party's tool

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[pooja]

2. I am going to go with positive power of thought.

I'm not going to gloom and doom. It puts American's in harm way.

[yurbud]

8. that works about as well as leaving your door unlocked when there's

a burglar in the neighborhood.

If you don't gauge and predict your opponents possible moves, you can be blindsided and knocked down, as the Democrats seem to have allowed to happen for at least three elections in a row.

[pooja]

12. If there is a burgular in the neighborhood, please think to why

a person would resort to criminal behavior. When I was in college... I lived in a dorm for 2 semesters. During the day, the door was unlocked. There were 4 girls and an exterior entrance. I had a laptop, printer, money, etc. that could be taken, likewise, my roommates did too. We did not fear that someone would rob us. We may have been naive, but nobody felt like there was much reason to fear anything on campus. Why? I'm not sure. Society can be like this. I'm not saying completely blind. But in my experience, if someone wants something badly enough, they are going to do it.

A suicide bomber is most likely to succeed because of the desire and will to do it. A "terrorist" is going to do it because of the want and the will. One soldier may rise above all destruction in front of him to become heroic because of the will and desire to be the best, while other soldiers will get caught up in the mayhem and do what they see. Its about wills and desires.

I will a legitamit govt that is truely for and by the people. I work actively in promoting that idea and talking about it. I don't sit around waiting for gloom and doom and say see.

[yurbud]

15. I agree with you but that isn't what I was talking about--you need to do

both, both politically and with terrorism. Figure out WHY the other side is doing what they are doing so you can take away their motive if possible, which is the best long term strategy, BUT also figure out WHAT they are going to do in the short term, so you can respond appropriately. It is a basic premise of warfare that whoever has the element of surprise has the upper hand, and the GOP seems to consistently have this over the Dems, even though people have been screaming at them telling them exactly what the GOP is going to do.

[berni_mccoy]

3. War with Iran.

[yurbud]

11. great chart--where did you get it?

[liberal N proud]

4. Some new terror threat

most assuredly tied to Iran

[AndyA]

5. They'll roll out another Osama tape. No doubt, the script is being

written now. Rove has just a few little touches to add to it before he sends it off to OBL for filming. Then, it's back to Rove for editing and special effects. So orchestrated, and so predictable. Worked in 2004, why not again?

[jobycom]

6. None of the above, it will be domestic, like plunging gas prices

Every time Bush brings up terrorism or Iraq his numbers fall. People don't believe him or the Repubs anymore, and further attacks or any such reminder of Bush's failures on the issue would only backfire on the Repubs, and make them look ineffective. Even capturing Osama would look like a ploy, and remind people that Osama was still loose.

It will be an attack on the Dems, or a sudden victory at home. ANother 9-11 would destroy the Republicans right now.

[meldroc]

7. I voted small terror attack.

The usual tricks have been tried - media circuses around dead white girls, terror threats of the week, and that's doing absolutely nothing to help them in the polls. Even Osama tapes are getting a "Meh." from the plebes. They're going to escalate a few steps, which means something ugly - a nasty attack on the .mil, say a destroyer getting sunk, or an attack on a barracks or chow hall that kills hundreds (think Khobar Towers); or there may be a terrorist attack - an airliner or two being downed, or a nerve gas attack on the New York Subway, something that kills enough people to actually cause some shock & awe.

I put absolutely nothing beneath this administration in its efforts to retain and accumulate power.

[yurbud]

9. one thing that's nice is they have been cycling thru all their race cards

and they just aren't working their mojo with the public anymore.

blacks
gays
Mexicans
Muslims
lather
rinse
repeat

[Virginia Dare]

10. Osama will make another appearance...

telling Americans how stupid they are, and they had better give in to his demands and vote for Democrats this time.

[peace13]

13. Osama tape coupled with some sort of attack.

[varun]

14. Lower gas prices

thats something the oil corporations wouldnt hesitate to do - to keep their repuke masters in power.

[yurbud]

16. everybody seems to be low-balling their predictions, but I hope yur right.

[KingFlorez]

17. It's too late

There will only be more doom for Republicans, anything they come up with won't help them.

[readmoreoften]

18. I think we're going with the whole PNAC plan, which includes more

"catalyzing events" like 9-11. Then more phoney elections.

We'll need a large one to get Americans to accept the military's next move into Iran and Syria. I see no reason to believe that the PNAC are backing off from their original plan of US transformation of the middle east. I expect that Iran will be tied to Al-Qaeda and shortly thereafter there will be an attack on a Western nation that will be tied to Iran.

We're in fascism now. It's not going to get better until it gets much worse and it is not going to stay the same either. I hope I'm wrong, but what else is possible. Some massive victory for honorable, non-embedded Democrats in the Fall? Conyers to the head of the Judiciary Committee? Freedom and Justice?

Yeah, I don't think so. Why would the course be changing? People power? I think that's a little naive.

[lpbk2713]

19. Boosh will walk into Saddam's cell and slap him around for a photo-op.

Of course, Saddam will have been adequately sedated and there will be 50 or so Special Forces types off camera to rush in to Smirky's defense if things should get out of control.

[me b zola]

20. Osama will be pulled from the deep freeze

OBL was said, by mainstream sources, to have been in Dubai just prior to 911 for kidney treatment (dialysis?). Well, people with advanced kidney disease don't have a long life expectency. I rather think that OBL died a peaceful death in a Dubai hospital or palace, and as a condition of the ports deal that bush* wrote for Dubai, was promised the iced body of OBL.

It is rumored that the possibility of OBL's dead body showing up is why the Dems aren't hammering the question of where's Osama. I think that the '06 mid-terms are more important, at this point, to the republiKlans than '08. So, that's my theory. :smoke: