Does the 9/11 anniversary really help Bush's ratings? (Data and Evidence)

[bluestateguy]

There seems to be a CW here that the 9/11 anniversary always gives Baby Bush's numbers a little bump. But does that hypothesis hold up under scrutiny? I decided to take a look at compilations of his post September 11 approval ratings for the years 2002-2005. The polls here are from CBS News/NYT, Gallup/USA Today/CNN, Zogby, PEW, Newsweek, Fox, AP/Ipsos, Harris, ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/WSJ. In each case I have taken the most immediate pre-911 poll for the given year for each news organization/pollster and juxtaposed it with the most immediate post 9/11 poll for the year, for that news organization.

Data taken from: http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm and http://www.pollingreport.com/bushjob2.htm

2002


CBS 63% 66%
Gallup 66% 70%
Zogby 63% 63%
PEW 63% 67%
Newsweek 61% 70%
Fox 66% 65%
AP 65% 66%
Harris 63% 68%
ABC 71% 67%
NBC 64% 63%

Net: +2.0%

2003

CBS 55% 52%
Gallup 52% 50%
Zogby 45% 50%
PEW 56% 55%
Newsweek 53% 52%
Fox 58% 50%
AP 52% 55%
Harris 57% 59%
ABC 56% 58%
NBC 56% 49%

Net: -1.0%

2004

CBS 50% 50%
Gallup 52% 52%
Zogby 47% 47%
PEW 46% 44%
Newsweek 53% 52%
Fox* 49% 50%
AP# 52% 54%
Harris 48% 45%
ABC 52% 50%
NBC 47% 47%

Net: -0.5%

2005

CBS 42% 41%
Gallup 45% 46%
Zogby 40% 43%
PEW 40% 40%
Newsweek 38% 40%
Fox 45% 41%
AP 39% 40%
Harris 40% 34%
ABC 45% 42%
NBC 46% 40%

Net: -1.3%

Conclusion

The overall 9/11 anniversary effect has been negligible for Bush's popularity since 2002. There was a small increase in his approval ratings during the one year anniversary in 2002, but even this was within the margin of error. In subsequent years the movement in his polling numbers has been even more negligible, falling within the margin of error, either positive or negative.

*The Fox samples for September, 2004 were of "likely voters"
#The AP post 9/11 sample for 2004 was for "likely voters"

[Debau2005]

1. He first has to overcome

the "dip" in his poll numbers on the Katrina Anniversary!! That should prove interesting watching!

[bluestateguy]

2. I'm kicking this because I worked hard on this post.

nt

[stop the bleeding]

5. Thank you

I wish that was more of an issue this year - especially in light of the elections and the fact that OBL is still on the run.

These facts/failures should be held under a spotlight this year for ALL Americans to see and "think about"

Kicking!!!

[MrModerate]

3. Like I've been saying . . .

We don't need to run and hide from the 9/11 anniversary, and instead should use it as an occasion to highlight Republicker failures. In fact, running from the anniversary would reinforce the notion that Dems are weak on defense in general the the "war" on terror generally.

[stop the bleeding]

6. yep - failures

see post#5

[Toots]

4. A clip that needs to be played over and over again from now til after 9-11

Exchange between reporter and Bush* Question: "What does Iraq have to do with 9-11?" Answer: Bush*"Nothing"

[myrna minx]

7. Exactly. n/t

[bluestateguy]

8. Kick

[JuniperLea]

9. Was it worth all those lives? n/t

[Nightjock]

10. kick!

[Bill McBlueState]

11. great post

If we have to worry about the 9/11 anniversary enhancing Bush's poll numbers, it means Democrats have done a terrible job of getting our message out. We've worked harder than that and done better than that.