ARG: Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut

[kpete]

Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut

Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.

Lieberman leads Lamont 57% to 18% among enrolled Republicans and 48% to 38% among unaffiliated (independent) voters. Lamont leads Lieberman 65% to 30% among enrolled Democrats.

A total of 56% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman. A total of 47% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ctsenate/

also see:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1959277&mesg_id=1959277

[LaPera]

1. Lamont will win!

[malaise]

5. He will n/t

[Lasher]

19. I've been expecting this.

With due respect to his overall good voting record, Joe has little to run on. He's pro-Iraq war, and opposition to it is at an all time high. He's correctly seen as being too cozy with Junior & Darth Cheney, whose unpopularity is causing Republican candidates to distance themselves from them. And the Republicans' rush to support Lieberman in mostly Democratic Connecticut is the kiss of death.

As we get closer to the general election these issues will continue to work against Lieberman.

[endarkenment]

2. That was quick.

More of that joementum in evidence.

[Marr]

6. Wasn't it? His Democratic support is evaporating fast.

[calico1]

3. Wow, this is two polls so far

that have the race tightening. Lamont just needs a little more of the Indies and a little more of the Dems and Lieberman is done. And it's still August!

[Jacobin]

4. My my my... the 'fringe' seems to be growing!!

Proud Fringe Voter

[Lone_Star_Dem]

7. Two months to go and this race is already looking good for Lamont

If this trend to Lamont continues joe is going to be bawling like a spoiled republican baby on election night. :D

[charlie]

8. Joe's raising Ned's profile

Lamont was largely unknown outside Democratic circles during the primary, until it looked like Joe might lose. Since then, Joe, the GOP, and the media have nationalized the election, effectively nationalizing Ned's visibility. It appears that people are liking what they see as they become familiar with him.

[Exultant Democracy]

58. He has grown more polished since the debate

he seems to be very comfortable in the spotlight.

[Marr]

9. I can't wait to see Lieberman lose big as an Independent.

I want to see that whiney shithead call 60% of his former constituents the "far left fringe".

[Tin Man]

42. I second your sentiment

I almost want Lieberman to stay-in until election day so we can watch Lamont and the "radical left" very publicly kick Joe's ass a second time. Fuck you Joe, you've squandered your opportunity to bow-out with a modicum of your dignity intact; and the longer you remain in the race, the more it'll hurt in the end.

[Borgnine]

10. What happened?

A second ago, Lieberman had a massive lead. Now I've blinked and his Joementum has run dry.

Was there any baby eating involved?

[NewJeffCT]

14. Close

Karl Rove got involved.

It was amazing how quickly the Republican talking points came out on Lamont & Lieberman's primary - all were some form of:

1) The Looney Left elitist fringe "Wackadoos" had taken over the Democratic primary.
2) It was a victory for Al-Qaeda.
3) and, lamenting the loss of Lieberman.

I don't think CT residents took kindly to being called "wackadoos" - I've been monitoring the LTTEs in the local newspapers, and they have been strongly anti-Lieberman.

[calico1]

18. Very foolish on Lieberman's part.

But I hope he keeps doing it! ;-)

[stepnw1f]

11. That Was Too Quick

I hope these polls are accurate, because I just don't know what to believe...

Eeeyore... I know. GO LAMONT!!!!!

[endarkenment]

12. Those pajama people must be breeding in their basements!

It is the only possible explanation.

[wisteria]

13. Whew, I am glad it is closer, but Lamont still has to attract more

Independents. I am not as worried about the Democratic base there because with the Re pubs pushing Lieberman, Lamont must look more and more appealing to them.

[yurbud]

15. great. Time for Joe to get boot in the ass.

[yurbud]

30. TOON: Fax to any Dems that support or don't condemn Lieberman

[gatorboy]

16. Schlesinger, you can DOOOO it!!!

C'mon man! Work it! Only 50+ points to go!

[cascadiance]

35. Tell Republicans that they shouldn't vote for "immigration amnesty"...

which they've voted against in so many other campaigns. Those hard core Republicans should be told to vote their principles and vote with Schlesinger on this one.

[kentuck]

17. 30% of Democrats now for Joe ?

That would mean he has lost about 18% of his Democratic support from the primary? That's bad news for Joe...

[NewJeffCT]

20. I agree

Lamont's support has gone up 13 among Democrats, while Lieberman has lost 18.

I hope those numbers improve even more for September - say 75-20?

Then, if we can pull a bit more of the independents, we'll be in great shape.

[Botany]

21. Just sit right back .....

Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale,
a tale of a fateful kiss.
That started from bush's mouth,
given to a tiny shit.
Joe was a kiss ass little man,
the President drunk for sure.
All Democrats blew chunks that day,
Joe is a whore for sure, Joe is a whore for sure………
Then people started getting pissed,
in Connecticut Joe was tossed.
If not for the support of Karl and the press crew,
the Joe would have been lost; the Joe would have been lost.
The Joe's ship took ground on the shore of this neo con isle,
with Karl, the President too,
the republican Millionaires, and their trophy wives,
the Hannity, the Bill O'Rielly and Blitzer,
here on Neo Con Isle.

[ananda]

23. Great song!

LOL

"Joe is a whore for sure, Joe is a whore for sure………"

Hehehe

[BlooInBloo]

25. Suggestion: Instead of "the Joe would have been lost"...

... try "Joementum would be lost".

Sounds alright to my ears, how bout yours.

[Divine Discontent]

47. exactly!

joementum would be lost!

www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<<-=-=- top shop

[rocktivity]

22. CUE THE VONAGE THEME!

I'd be happier if the sample were a little bigger and the margin of error a little smaller, but it's good to know that the media's anti-Lamont media offensive after the primary didn't stick. This is gap we can close!

:woohoo:
rocknation

[localroger]

24. Wow, check out the favorable/unfavorables

Lieberman has nowhere to go; 3% undecided. Everybody knows him. Lamont has nowhere to go but UP -- 19% undecided. If I was Joe I'd be looking for another gig.

[cascadiance]

32. Usually undecideds break for the challenger...

I think these numbers reflect that. Most folks have already decided wether they like or dislike Lieberman. They are holding out their decision now to see if they want to vote for Lamont yet. I'm guessing a lot will, given his less "unfavorable" status. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[IWantAChange]

26. Diebold machines?

Anyone know if Connecticut uses them? With a double digit undecided # it almost sounds too easy for the Repugs if they will have access to the machines.

[Larkspur]

29. No diebold in CT...

We used lever machines in the primary and starting this November some towns will convert to optical scan machines made by a company in Massachusetts.

[sendero]

27. The Republican mighty wurlitzer..

... is running out of steam. I think more and more Americans are figuring out that the "news" is a sham and the pundits a bunch of wackjobs every day that goes by.

Just how big a dumbass do these Rovian-speak people think Americans are? When they say stuff that is the verbal equavilent of "Lamont is for the terrorists" - do they really think folks are going to go along with that bullshit?

Coming up next: Americans have decided that they are not going to tailor their lives around terra-terra-terra any more!

I'm going to enjoy the death of the Republican party's power and the death of the last vestiges of respect for TV news.

[Bob3]

28. one again we see that more people get to know Joe

the less they like him.

Truly his campaign continues to be a marvel of ineptitude - his decision to paint Lamont voters as terrorist sympathizers followed by his playing race card ("vote for Lamont and Negroes will take your jobs and still be on welfare at the same time") THEN saying that Rumsfeld should resign and trying to paint himself as a * critic (yeah right), combined with his enormous sense of aggrieved entitlement and obvious resentment at having to curry the unwashed's favor is making this a case study for anyone interested in politics in what not to do.

[ejbr]

64. And NOW

that the race is tightening, let's see what desperate, idiotic thing Joe does next! Given the incredible partisanship created by Rove and co., it will be more difficult for Joe to demonstrate how he has been bipartisan and not an enabler. We can list many things that Joe did to enable Bush, but what can Joe (or his allies) state to demonstrate that Joe encouraged Bush to deviate from his "my way or the highway" persona? Someone needs to publicly challenge Joe to demonstrate how he has actually worked across the aisle and not just enabled a rogue administration. If he is going to get any undecideds, he will have to pull this off. Seeing that he can't, he will get desperate and say or do something so stupid that the new mantra will be "whose ca ca"? (not that we want massa Allen to get off the hook for being a complete and utter dick, mind you)

[Radical Activist]

31. Wasn't he supposed to move to the right before that happened?

Moving right didn't work for Lieberman and it won't work for Lamont either.

[NNN0LHI]

33. Just shows that Chicken Little "The sky is falling" stuff...

...isn't what its all cracked up to be.

Don

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

34. It's Lieberman, people.

He had a huge poll advantage in the Democratic presidential primary and he blew it. He had a huge advantage in the recent primary, and he blew it.

And it looks like it's going to happen again.

[NNN0LHI]

36. I agree. He is letting people see him sweat

He looks as panicked as Bush does. I think there may be a connection there.

Don

[warrens]

37. That's real bad news for Joe

A tie now means he couldn't leave Lamont in the dust by appealing to voters as a whole. The Dem lead for Lamont is pretty convincing, and those are the motivated voters who will actually show up. I doubt the independent love for Joe is either strong or deep...without a compelling race outside this one, a lot of non-Dems will just stay home.

[Imagevision]

38. Escalating Iraq civil war is no help for Lieberman... Lamont will defeat

by a much larger number in second go-round of voting...

[Tin Man]

43. Me thinks you're correct

and Bush's announcement yesterday to the effect "we're staying in Iraq for as long as I'm the president" - is only gonna help highlight the Iraq War as THE issue for voters, especially in Connecticut, come November.

[demdiva]

39. Lieberman is doing slightly better still with "always" voters

this means a targeted GOTV effort is going to be really important ...

[D23MIURG23]

40. I think more needs to be done to put Schlesinger in this race.

If he gained a bit of publicity he might be capable of stripping a few points off of Lieberman. I don't think I can hold my nose hard enough to donate to a republican campaign though.

[CTyankee]

53. Schlesinger is not going anywhere so that's a waste of energy

He is a joke in this state. I'd love to see him strip votes away from Joe but it ain't gonna happen. the repubs see their chance with good ole Joe.

[tinrobot]

57. It's that Nader factor

Even a few points could make the difference in a race this tight.

Every vote Schlesinger gets is a vote taken away from Lieberman. I hope Sclesinger does really well in the debate.

[CTyankee]

60. Yeah, I get that. But these repubs in CT aren't that dumb

Besides, who needs a republican when you can get Joe? Also, Schlesinger is a schmuck. Nader had some appeal and real fire in his belly. "Wampum card" Al is almost a cardboard cutout character.

[D23MIURG23]

62. I'm sure you are right about Schlesinger

But he does seem to have 3 - 4% of the vote despite there being no comparison between him and Nader on quality. Even that margin could be useful if the race remains close (not that it necessarily will).

[CTyankee]

63. Yep, we just can't devote time and energy to him

I'm hoping that NEd will have a really hard hitting campaign come September and we volunteers will be involved in something really interesting on the phones or whatever. I really don't care what they want me to do: I'll affix stamps, fold and stuff mailers, etc. It doesn't matter. I just want to elect Senator Lamont. Hey, I like the sound of that!

[Bretttido]

41. Great news, made my day. GO NED!

[FighttheFuture]

44. Unless Lamont is leading by 10%+, they will find a way to steal it....

Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Mexicao, Georgia, Nebraska, and numerous other States have shown that!

[Totally Committed]

45. Excellent news!

Thank you for posting it!

TC

[thereismore]

46. Ned Lamont is a Monster Killer. He's going to win. nt

[Nikki Stone 1]

48. What's with that 30% of enrolled Democrats?

Gotta get them to see Lieberman as NOT a Democrat any more.

[CTyankee]

54. I have hope, I truly do, that some of these Dems supporting Joe will

turn in sorrow away from Joe at the end of the day. Some of them live in my neighborhood (and Joe's former neighborhood) in New Haven. They are intelligent, nice people (I know because I went door to door to get signatures to put Ned on the ballot here). I can't believe that all of them are inured to Ned's arguments. I think some of them were hurt by Joe's primary loss and maybe took it personally. I hope they heal and start listening.

[KansDem]

49. Didn't Bush throw his weight behind Lieberman recently?

Didn't His Royal Flatulence endorse Joementum?

Looks like the Bush "kiss of death" strikes again!

[connecticut yankee]

50. Let's not get cocky

It's still over two months until Election Day.

We've got to work hard and harder to GOTV for Ned.

Once Rove and his henchmen start attacking Ned, anything can happen.

BTW, the Kissmobile will be out there in full force!

[CTyankee]

55. Yup. I'm just back from vacation and ready to start calling for Ned again

or whatever they want me to do.

I just wish Ned could get more exposure. To see him and hear him is to really like the guy. I'd love to see him on Oprah!

[connecticut yankee]

59. The campaign

really gets into full-swing after Labor Day.

I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot of him then.

[Douglas Carpenter]

51. good now it is heading in the right direction

http://www.nedlamont.com

[tinrobot]

52. How can we give Schlesinger a boost?

I'm sure he can poll more than 3% of the Repugs...

Any additional votes he gets come right off the top of Lieberman's pile.

[kenfrequed]

56. Interesting

And Lamont has a good shot really. Independent or unaffiliated voters are less likely to vote with someone that is close to the Republicans. Lieberman will either have to clearly and obviously distance himself from them (and thereby lose the tenative Republican support), continue to cling to them (goodbye independents), or play it safe and continue the moderate thing.

He will probably choose the middle ground. This means he will be campaigning almost entirely in platitudes and soundbites in an effort to market himself to the broadest possible spectrum of voters. Voters desperate for clear choices and definitive stands will be turned off by this. With any amount of luck this will put an end to the irrational and undefined "go-for-the-moderates" run that has become so popular over the years.

He will obviously lose the anti-Iraq war vote which does include some Republicans. They will either vote their party or stay home depending on what form the endorsed Republican candidates goes. With the amount of positive support by the Republican machine devoted to pumping up Liberman he will feel a pressure to do something out of the ordinary. The fact that he seems to have had a gambling problem creates difficulties for a standard republican 'slime-the-oppostion' values campaign.

I think Schlessinger might actually decide to run against the standard Republican line on the war. It might include soundbites like: "fixing the problem" or "getting it right or getting get out." He will intentionally sound like a non-establishment candidate. Of course most of this will be smoke, mirrors, and spin. He will probably "stand up" to Bush and might even manage to get John McCain to stop in town. The local op-ed repub's will make a big deal out of how he "proudly" stands away from Bush on this matter.

Of course this is all just idle speculation, but I personally think that the "support" for Liberman will slowly die off amongst the right wing as soon as they are sure the media is carrying it on their own.

I still think Lamont has an excellent chance at winning in November.

[killbotfactory]

61. Keep it up, Joe!

[JRob]

65. Saw Lieberman on CNN today. He sounded more Republican than usual...nt

[mkb]

66. Knowing More Is Best Way Forward For Politically Involved

     Sorry if I erred about considering Lieberman because he
might have been a stronger general election candidate.  It
seems that he might win anyway.
     It seems that in hindsight, Lamont was the best choice,
considering Republicans are ditching Schlesinger for
Lieberman.  This opinion was due mostly to my desire to
GENERALLY support Democrats against Republicans and the fact I
am not as aware of the conditions in Connecticut as many
others.  My apologies.

[NastyDiaper]

67. *, Pull the Def Sec trigger TODAY!

Lieberman's numbers will only get worse, and the most recent call for Bummy's head was an (R).

There will be no better time.

/poundspodium