Don't panic over Lamont-Lieberman poll numbers

[NewJeffCT]

Do not panic at today’s poll numbers showing Lieberman up 53-41. It will be hard work, and I am sure Tom Swan and Ned Lamont were not planning on coasting home into November.

Don’t forget folks, about two months ago, people here were excited because Ned Lamont was only down like 55-40 in the primary race to Lieberman. He had closed from being down 34 points in the previous poll to “only” 15 down.

After that 55-40 poll came out, Lamont did a great job campaigning over the next 6 weeks to end up being ahead slightly with a month to go - and then up by over 10 points with a week to go. While Lamont’s lead shrunk in the final week due to some deceptions on Lieberman’s part (like, he was giving up his GOTV effort) and some vicious attack ads, it was still a remarkable turnaround in a short period of time.

Right now, we have more than 2 months until the general election.

I think once more Democrats realize that all of Lieberman’s support is coming from Republicans, Lamont’s base of Democratic votes will go up from its current 2/3 percentage to closer to 4/5 of Democrats.

Then, when Ned starts introducing himself to independents and moderate Republicans around the state, he will start to win some of them over and cut down on Lieberman’s support among them. He will hopefully be able to paint the picture of himself as more than just an anti-war candidate. The non-Democrats who followed the race casually probably only know him from his media image as “The anti-war candidate.”

Lamont will also have to continue to tie Lieberman to Bush, and not just on the Iraq War – but on things like Social Security privatization, the bankruptcy bill and more. Social Security Privatization will play big in Connecticut, a state with a lot of seniors.

The last I saw, Bush had like a 24% approval rating in Connecticut, so that means that more than just Democrats disapprove of him. I think this is a key to winning over independents – it is one thing to be a moderate if Republicans were interested in compromise. But, how often has the Bush White House and the DeLay Congress given ground on major issues?

So, I think if we can successfully point out to Democrats that Lieberman’s support is coming from Karl Rove & George Bush, it will help. John Edwards is in Connecticut today campaigning for Lamont, and we need more major Democrats to come here – John Kerry & Bill Clinton come to mind. It will be a lot of hard work over the next 11 weeks, but it is certainly very achievable.

[ananda]

1. I hope..

.. and pray you're right.

Go Lamont!

[endarkenment]

2. As I keep mentioning - Joe is a terrible campaigner.

He is an arrogant asshat who thinks that this is his senate seat and is insulted that he actually has to order the people of Connecticut to vote for him. The numbers will change.

[AlCzervik]

4. his behavior at the debate with Lamont was very telling imo

he acted like a petulant child who was pissed he actually had to show up, if he repeats that i'm sure he'll lose just like he did in the primary.

[Name removed]

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[ChairmanAgnostic]

7. there's a good reason for that.

he is more of a neocon than most GOPers. He is a useful shill for TV pundits talking about the other crazy Dems, while smart, moderate Joe sees the "truth". He has been their biggest enabler of crap and worse for 6 yrs.

[cascadiance]

9. They also don't want the precedent of a DLCer being thrown out...

Lieberman and other DLCers have been essential to the corporatists, and therefore the GOP's stranglehold of power over the years. The corporatists know that if Lamont wins, it will foreshadow more "outings" to come, if not in 2006, more assuredly in 2008 that will lead to significantly more non-corporatist power amongst the two parties.

[NewJeffCT]

8. Lieberman provides Team Bush with political cover

"Look, that Democrat Joe Lieberman supports Iraq, so it must be a mainstream idea.


"Look, Joe Lieberman won't rule out privatizing Social Security, it must be mainstream"

[fooj]

12. Yep. It's called PNAC.

[Name removed]

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[mike_c]

5. well, maybe not panic but I think it's damned concerning....

Right now Lieberman's stategy is clearly to put together a coalition of republicans and moderate/right dems (yes, I know most voters in CT are "independents," but at the end of the day most of them vote repub or dem nonetheless). That tells us where the political "middle" really falls-- it's a group of people who fear change more than they fear going forward with proven bad leadership, and the proof of that leadership is in the abysmally low approval rating Bush enjoys. The democratic party doesn't need to woo those voters-- Lieberman is wooing them, and selling his soul in exchange for them-- the democratic party needs to educate them and change their mind about supporting leadership that they already know does not work in their best interests. To the extent that they are a metaphor for similar voters nationwide, dems need to figure out how to make them reject the blurry center where dems and repugs all look similar rather than competing for them on those terms. That's what Lieberman is doing, and if he succeeds it will be because dems were unable to convince voters that the alternatives are better than the status quo, as sorry as it might be.

[AX10]

6. Connecticut is a blue state. The independent voters here...

are more willing to look at an alternative than they would be in red states.

[LaPera]

10. Get real, this should be in the bag for Lieberman. If Indy Lieberman

just gets a good chunk of the Dem's who voted for him last week, he's going to get most of the republican vote, as well as much of the Indy vote....Karl Rove's advice to Lieberman was correct...Lieberman will win as an Independent...(What the fuck is a "moderate republican" anyway, no such animal)

But the good news is, at least the republican Lieberman won't be in the Democratic party any longer and we will all know as an Indy Senator he's really just a republican shill.

The republicans without a doubt will ask the republican candidate Alan Schlesinger to stand down and pretend for the good of the republican party and you can bet with promises of a big pay-off to Alan Schlesinger and a promise for who knows, Dodd's seat in the future, or a job in the BushCo administration till then, along with a healthy monetary gift.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Connecticut Republicans are pretty moderate

Our Republican governor happily signed into law bills allowing civil unions & to fund embryonic stem cell research. She also proposed full public financing of all statewide elections.

[Blue Belle]

13. Are Lieberman and Lamont going to have another debate?

Just curious... it would seem like an excellent opportunity to bring up all of his Republican funding.

[warrens]

14. I'm not worried

The campaign doesn't begin until Labor Day. At that point, Ned is going to kick ass. I still believe that Lieberman will drop out. Either that or accept GOP funds, which will doom him instantly.

[autorank]

16. I think you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if those funds show up

pretty soon. I also liked the remarks about the LIEberman debate performance. What a clown!

He is such a Queen of the May it's offensive.

Mr. Morality needs to be asked one question:

"How could you go to the Senate floor and criticize Clinton for immorality in a sexual affair and not do the same to Bush for a violent war based on lies?"

[sandnsea]

17. I agree and one more thing

as he crafts HIS message, I don't care if it's nutmeg in every pumpkin pie, GET ON BOARD. We lose because we try to be smarter than the candidates when what they desperately need is a chorus. I think it's very doable too and congratulations to everybody who stuck to their guns and made this happen.

Did you see Kerry's post at Kos? He said he talked to Ned Saturday, so maybe this is what Ned wants. Since, like you say, Ned is pushing for moderates and Repubs now, maybe he doesn't want those 'wild-eyed liberals' on the scene. Ever think of that?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/17/132653/514