Quinnipiac Poll has Lieberman 53%, Lamont at 41%

[NewJeffCT]

The poll was announced this morning on the radio, so no link yet.

Republican Alan Schlesinger is at 4%, which means he could be at 0 with the margin of error.

Lieberman is getting 75% of the Republican vote, while Lamont is getting 2/3 of the Democratic vote.

[wicket]

1. Here's a link:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060817/ap_on_el_se/connecticut_senate

[KaryninMiami]

2. Guess there's some serious work to be done in CT.

For one thing, the GOP Lieberman connection must be clearly established to win the rest of the Democratic vote as well as the independants.

[waiting for hope]

7. I spoke to a friend the other

night from CT - she's a registered Republicant but now she's going to go Independent. I'm afraid that those who are disgusted with it all (as my friend) may just reject Lamont out of hand by going the Independent route....I reminded her of Bush's lip lock after the State of the Union....she did give pause and a snort of disgust....

[Atman]

3. I'm just baffled...how the * does Joe think this makes him NOT republican?

He keeps saying he's looking out for the ideals of his party and all, but when his own party rejects him and the other side embraces him as a standard bearer, how could even the most delusion ego think that points to anything but being a total sell out whose simply switched team?

[patricia92243]

5. I think he could care less - as long as he can keep his job.

[NewJeffCT]

13. Ding Ding Ding

we have a winnah

[Selatius]

6. Because he can point to the fact he's still registered as a Democrat

You cannot stop somebody from registering as a Democrat, and you can't force somebody to re-register as something other than a Democrat.

[zanne]

4. Does anybody know the breakdown of Dems/Reps

I thought Connecticut was largely Democratic, but I guess I was wrong. Does anybody have a link to the percentages of Dems/Reps in CT?

[JerseygirlCT]

8. Biggest group is unaffiliated voters,

followed by Dems, then Republicans.

I don't have the link handy, but if you go to the CT Secretary of State's site, you can find the Oct. 2005 numbers there.

[NewJeffCT]

10. If I recall the breakdown

It's something like 900,000 registered Indys... 700,000 registered Dems... and 500,000 Republicans.

[JerseygirlCT]

29. Yes, that sounds right, thanks.

I know I posted the numbers last week sometime, but I don't remember exactly which post it was in -- too many on the Lamont/Lieberman topic to remember!

[skipos]

9. I think Lamont is going to have a tough time unless

a new Republican gets in the race. Republicans are getting behind Lieberman way more than I expected.

[NewJeffCT]

12. I think it is definitely do-able

A few reasons for this:

1) As the amount of RepubliCON support for Lieberman becomes more evident, more Democrats will switch to Lamont. Right now, Lieberman is stronger among Repubs than Lamont is among Dems.

2) If we can tie Lieberman to Bush more effectively, we can turn some independents as well.

[skipos]

15. Yes, it is doable, but Republicans are WAY more eager to line up behind

a self proclaimed "independent Democrat" than I anticiapted.

[Smarmie Doofus]

14. And why wouldn't they? n/t

>>>>Republicans are getting behind Lieberman way more than I expected.>>>

[skipos]

16. Many people on this board argued that the Republican would win

in a three way race not too long ago. That is far from the case.

[Smarmie Doofus]

17. Only because they chose to nominate....

.... and have failed to replace... a nonentity.

[Tesha]

20. It appears that the (closet) Republican *IS* going to win. (NT)

[JerseygirlCT]

30. I think it won't be a cake-walk, that's for sure

I think though, the other thing we have going is Joe's nasty temperament these days. That's going to be a turn-off, I think. And the more he places himself with Bush/Cheney, the less independent support he'll find. Heck, possibly the less Republican support here, too.

Lamont really, really needs to come out strong on issues other than just the war. He needs to really introduce himself to CT, and make it obvious he's not the left-wing radical that Bush/Cheney/Lieberman/MSM are so eager to make him appear to be. People just need to be made comfortable with the IDEA of him, I think.

[Smarmie Doofus]

11. It's a bit early. A lot of that is name recognition.

Remember, not everyone is following this race as closely as this board is... to put it mildly.

Not sure that Lamont will win, but I'm sure he'll close at more than 41%. For sure, there's more work to be done to make sure that Lieberman voters know *exactly* what they will be voting for. Namely, a long history of weak leadership and *stupendously* bad judgement... along with the added insistence that he's been right all along.

In other words, the poor soul can't even seem to recognize his mistakes, much less *learn* from them.

[mmonk]

18. Lamont can still pull it out if he speaks

the truth with authority. A Lieberman victory may do widespread damage to the democratic party. Dems who don't follow or know the false framing from Lieberman and the republicans will probably stay with the party, but much of the base who is aware of the false framing of the issues and the damage already done by a docile faction of the democratic party may leave considering in their minds, this may be the last straw.

[Buzz Clik]

19. Gawd. This was predicted from day one.

Lieberman winning is better than a Repuke; however, I cannot believe that the Republican candidate will continue to drag along at 4%. And every vote that goes to the Republican will be a vote taken away from Lieberman.

[oc2002]

21. And Lamont will still win by at least 5 points because actual voting is

not a poll!

the polls do not pick a random sample, they may pick people based on factors and screen them for the poll, unlike an actual election.

Making grand predictions on just ONE POLL is as freeper as it gets.

Lamont will win, but he has to work for it. Now that he will be getting more funds from the DNC, that should make it much easier.

[robcon]

22. The Repug is only getting 4 percent!

Repugs intend to vote for Lieberman. Will that result stay? I don't think so.

[La Coliniere]

23. Had a gut feeling

that it was going to be an uphill battle for Lamont. Lieberman, our national "sad sack", knows how to play the game all right.

[Edgewater_Joe]

24. Check The Trend, People - This Is GOOD News!

Lieberman: 49 (51)
Lamont: 38 (27)
Schlesinger: 4 (9)

Lamont jumped 11 points since the primary, while Loserman (DeFacto R) dipped below 50% -- danger for any incumbent.

[SaveElmer]

25. I don't believe that is correct...

I believe that is improvement since the last poll on July 20th...before the primary...

Actually not that great a news as I would have expected Lamont to have a bigger jump after winning the primary...

[Edgewater_Joe]

40. It's From Quinnipiac, Sir

Are you just looking for bad news?

[SaveElmer]

41. I looked at the link...

The previous poll is dated July 20...if you have a link that shows something different I'd be glad to see it

[SaveElmer]

26. Not entirely surprising...Lamont is going to need to switch his message...

Some...he is clearly not appealing to moderate independents in Connecticut...

No matter what you say about him personally, he is clearly perceived as a "one-note" wonder only concentrating on the war...

He is going to need to start getting through to these moderate independents somehow or he is going to lose big.

[mmonk]

32. I don't think he is one a hit wonder at exposing just one truth.

I think he will make enroads and it is Lieberman and his republican and independent base in CT that is pushing that he is a one hit (issue) wonder.

[SaveElmer]

33. Doesn't matter how it is happening...

What matters is altering that perception...

Lamont is going to have to figure out a way to get his views on other issues, hopefully appealing to moderates, some serious air time...

He cannot win if he is perceived as the "anti-war" candidate...

[mmonk]

35. I thought the majority no longer supports the war.

[SaveElmer]

37. That's true...but

While the war is the #1 issue, only a plurality of people consider it their most important issue. There are other issues that people are concerned about as well...and for a majority of people it is not the war.

In 1972 most no longer supported the VietNam war, yet George McGovern was defeated in a historic landslide....

Lamont needs to get his views on other issues out there...

[mmonk]

39. Well all he has to do is point at the Supreme Ct. because

voting with the dems means absolutely nothing if you put radicals on the court that will proclaim progressive legislation not compatible with the constitution. The false framing of the war and terrorism is the reason why our democracy is in deeper trouble than even some here realize and unless that false framing is not attacked with vigor, then alot of the other things fail.

[Snivi Yllom]

27. Lieberman is going to win this easy

The wild card factor, Schlesinger's non-impact on the race is no longer a wild card. Schlesinger is dead on arrival, so CT's GOP and right leaning voters are going to naturally flock to Lieberman.

Lamont will have to simultaneously run left and right to pick off Lieberman's support, not easy to do. The best thing going for Lamont is he's a newcomer w/ no political record to attack.

[Buzz Clik]

28. Schlesinger will get more than 4%. He'll get more than 20%.

Lieberman is in the driver's seat, but this contest is not decided yet.

[helderheid]

31. Every Dem who can afford to donate to Lamont really needs to. NOW.

[Emit]

38. And every Dem who can afford to volunteer in Ct should do so, now

He will require a huge GOTV program, trained volunteers who are good at solid persuasion, etc. I know he already has quite a grassroots team, but turning out the Dem vote, as well as getting any undecideds who are of other registrants will be key. The repukes are working for Lieberman, and they will be not only throwing money his way, but throwing manpower who will have the use of data-mining bases far more accurate and whatnot than the Dems.

Stay focused, Lamont! It can be done.

[mmonk]

34. I suggest that for every post here

that appears showing a Lieberman lead or an elected democrat that won't support the democratic party candidate Lamont in real terms, that we make a donation to the Lamont campaign.

[Marr]

36. They haven't even really started campaigning yet- and you know,

Lieberman doesn't have the Democratic Party machine behind him anymore. Lamont does. Lieberman's got the GOP now, but I'd say that's going to end up being a liability in a state like Connecticut- no matter how clandestinely they try to use it.

Lamont's got his angle carved right out for him: Lieberman is the stealth GOP candidate. Bush won't even endorse the official GOP candidate.

Lieberman is going to lose in November, and he's going to lose by a comfortable margin.