My money says this will be Tropical Storm Debby by suppertime.

[Brotherjohn]

Circular radar image to right, off the Carolina coast (click the link below to see the obvious rotation, select "Show Map In Motion"):



http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USNC0760?clip=362

[skids]

1. It does seem to be consolidating pretty well...

...but there have been plenty of false starts so far this season. Lots of things spinning, not much in the convection department.

We'll see, the planes are supposedly in the thick of it about now.

[Brotherjohn]

3. Just eye-balling the rotation, but it looks like those clouds are already

... moving around the center at about 30-40mph.

[skids]

4. If you have Java enabled...

This site has a convenient menu to the noaa loops.

http://skeetobiteweather.com/

Things have spun up this fast several times this season and just flown right apart, but this one seems to have their attention so I wouldn't be surprised -- might not make named status tonight but if it makes depression status better the odds of that.

There have also been a whole lot of pretty fast upper level lows that just glided along without ever affecting the lower level winds.

(EDIT: also take a look at the central west coast of FL)

[Brotherjohn]

5. So, if upper level winds are spinning that fast, still doesn't make it a..

... TS?

I just go on hunches (and experience), having watched so many of these. Sounds like you know more of the science behind them.

They're probably flying through it right now...

[skids]

6. Me? have a clue? nah.

Heck everything looks like a hurricane to me. :-)

So far as I can tell, even really fast upper level cyclonic motion doesn't do the trick. There have to be lower level winds and rainfall. Unfortunately, once a system starts forming those maps often won't show what the lower level winds are doing due to obscurity -- and radar is only available on the gulf loop so looking for rainfall is difficult -- fortunately we get to see this one because it is just now coming onto the corner of that shot.

W'eve had some pretty interesting northern storms as far as I can tell so far this year, but the tropics have been full of large fast winds spanning the entire ocean, and blown apart any systems underneath. That all changed this weekend.

[Blue_In_AK]

2. Ooohh, my husband's ex-wife's name is Debby...

I hope this tropical storm doesn't have any of HER temperament. Yikes!

[Iwasthere]

7. Don't count on it

The planes will find that it is only 5 ot 10 mph over strenghth needed and stifle the numbers by waiting till the wind die for a moment I think. It has happened numerous times already this year. Where we had storm winds in excess of the mph needed to name it but then nothing... they don't want another record year (would only confirm Gores predictions) of named storms so if it appears it won't be a devastating one they come out with "The winds are at 35" for days on end. Highly unlikely that winds can stay exactly the same for 72 hours staright. Plus at the height of the storm the planes will sometimes stall going up.

[longship]

8. NOAA agrees with you.

Read about it here.