Mexico: The Electoral Crisis Goes On (COHA analysis)

[High Plains]

Here is an analysis of the current situation in Mexico from the Council on Hemispheric Affairs:

Analysis prepared by COHA Research Fellow Michael Lettieri and Research Associate Magali Devic
Wednesday, August 16, 2006


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Mexico’s court-ordered recount of 9.07 percent of the ballots cast in the July 2 presidential election concluded on Sunday.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) has not yet released the results of the recount, but initial reports suggest that a full recount will be merited.

As the country waits for the final tally, impatience and frustrations among PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s supporters have resulted in a sudden escalation of violence in Mexico City. The police have responded with a heavy hand.

The non-official winner of the initial vote, ruling PAN party candidate Felipe Calderón, needs to obtain a credible and legitimate victory, something he will only achieve through meaningful reconciliation with his opponents’ demands for increased transparency.

López Obrador, on the other hand, needs to maneuver delicately between generating an appropriate level of political pressure for a full recount of the ballots, while not alienating the majority of Mexicans who are quickly growing weary of the protracted post-electoral conflict.

Mexico’s post-electoral quagmire is still far from being resolved, even though the TEPJF’s 9.07 percent partial recount of presidential ballots concluded on Sunday. Indeed, despite López Obrador’s petition, the TEPJF only acknowledged the existence of wrongdoings, including some arithmetic mistakes and fraud at nearly 12,000 polling stations in 26 states. The TEPJF has not yet released results from the recount and the country is anxiously waiting for any sign of which way the outcome will break. As that tense vigil continues, it seems increasingly likely that the pre-election fears of societal conflict may be realized. On Monday, at a demonstration outside the Chamber of Deputies, federal police violently dispersed tear gas and brandished batons. As many as 30 protestors, including a reported 15 PRD elected officials, were injured in the ensuing melee. This clash, the first real incident of violent confrontation in the post-election period, potentially marks the beginning of a dangerous trend towards heightened political polarization.


Full article...http://www.coha.org/2006/08/15/mexico-the-electoral-crisis-goes-on/

[High Plains]

1. Things could be about to get very interesting in Mexico.

It could spin out of control.

[High Plains]

2. Wow, this sunk like a stone. Too bad; it's got some good info.

[Nimrod2005]

3. I sure hope this is does not spiral downward from here...I like Mexico

and Mexican people, they don't deserve this.

I have to admit, this looks very very ugly.

[EFerrari]

4. This situation is really interesting. Thanks, High Plains.

K&R