Terrorism experts cast doubt on al-Qaeda tie to arrests
HUMAN FACE: Analysts say making a link between the men arrested in London with al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden is a way to personalize the threat of terrorism
NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE , WASHINGTON
Monday, Aug 14, 2006,Page 7
When US and Pakistani officials said this week that one conspirator in the foiled plan to bomb trans-Atlantic airliners was a "liaison" to al-Qaeda, they suggested that his arrest proved the group was linked to the scheme. Rashid Rauf, a Briton, had trained in the group's camps in the 1990s and was "a key al-Qaeda operative," one Pakistani official said.
But counterterrorism experts said on Saturday that the focus of government officials and the public on al-Qaeda, a term today with deep connotations but elusive meaning, may be misplaced.
They say the Qaeda label remains useful shorthand for the news media and for officials who want to tap the powerful emotions associated with the Sept. 11 attacks. But to suggest that the terrorist threat today is represented by the organization directly commanded by Osama bin Laden is to oversimplify a complex international movement, the specialists say.
"If you think of al-Qaeda as the group that did 9/11, I don't think it's a very useful question," said Marc Sageman, a former CIA officer and author of a 2004 book closely studied in intelligence agencies, Understanding Terror Networks.
"The world is simpler when we have one enemy ... When we talk about a social movement and self-radicalizing, homegrown groups, that's nothing like we have faced in the past."
Brian Fishman, Combating Terrorism Center, US Military Academy
"There is no such thing as al-Qaeda as it existed before we went to Afghanistan and destroyed it," Sageman said. As the latest plot suggests, he said, that does not mean total victory is at hand. "We won the war against the old al-Qaeda. But we're not winning against the global social movement that al-Qaeda was part of, because more and more kids are joining the movement," he said.
Michael Scheuer, a former head of the CIA unit that focuses on bin Laden, says there may be more left of the old al-Qaeda than Sageman thinks. But he, too, doubts that bin Laden had anything to do with the airliner plot and emphasizes al-Qaeda's role as the inspiration and support for a broader movement.
"There are an amazing number of people who are connected to al-Qaeda" through training or funding, Scheuer said. "But the connection is not command and control."
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