Israel's Lack of Victory in Lebanon Should Take Iran off the Table

[Mir]

According to the Hersh piece, if Lebanon was indeed a "test" for any coming incursion into Iran, than the administration would have to devolve into an entirely new realm of insanity to launch an attack. Israel accomplised nothing even remotely resembling a victory in Lebanon, and that was against a small militia. If this doesn't sound a clear warning to Bushco to abandon an Iranian crusade, then God help us all.

[Marie26]

1. You're assuming

that they're in touch with reality. I really don't think they are.

[Nimrod2005]

2. Very smart point you make...I agree.

If Hizbollah showing is all Iran's ability to do wart stuff, then you are 100% right.

[PSPS]

3. I don't think that's what Hersch was saying

My interpretation of his piece was that this invasion of Lebanon was done to reduce the retaliatory ability of Hezbollah against Israel when the US attacks Iran.

So, it asn't a "test run" at all. It is merely part of the preparation for our bombing of Iran.

Isn't it wonderful when lunatics are in charge?

[Mir]

4. That's a sound point

I think that whatever way you look at it though, this confrontation spelled out an ominous course of events that could unfold if these idiots attack Iran. And the other poster had a good point. These fuckers are not in touch with reality. Lack of victory only makes them redouble their futile efforts.

[acmavm]

5. So were their 'preparations' a success or maybe a warning of the

disaster they are facing when the entire Middle East unites against them?

All Israel accomplished was to murder hundreds of innocent civilians. They didn't eliminate Hebzollah. They did manage, of course, to steal more land and water, but that's something they do on a regular basis.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. I think Hersh is saying it's both

But he doesn't think they'll learn from it:

“The big question for our Air Force was how to hit a series of hard targets in Iran successfully,” the former senior intelligence official said. “Who is the closest ally of the U.S. Air Force in its planning? It’s not Congo—it’s Israel. Everybody knows that Iranian engineers have been advising Hezbollah on tunnels and underground gun emplacements. And so the Air Force went to the Israelis with some new tactics and said to them, ‘Let’s concentrate on the bombing and share what we have on Iran and what you have on Lebanon.’ ” The discussions reached the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, he said.

“The Israelis told us it would be a cheap war with many benefits,” a U.S. government consultant with close ties to Israel said. “Why oppose it? We’ll be able to hunt down and bomb missiles, tunnels, and bunkers from the air. It would be a demo for Iran.”
...
Nonetheless, some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the Administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should, the former senior intelligence official said. “There is no way that Rumsfeld and Cheney will draw the right conclusion about this,” he said. “When the smoke clears, they’ll say it was a success, and they’ll draw reinforcement for their plan to attack Iran.”

In the White House, especially in the Vice-President’s office, many officials believe that the military campaign against Hezbollah is working and should be carried forward. At the same time, the government consultant said, some policymakers in the Administration have concluded that the cost of the bombing to Lebanese society is too high. “They are telling Israel that it’s time to wind down the attacks on infrastructure.”

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060821fa_fact

[Mir]

12. Is it not amazing to see

that the officials, particularly in the Veep's office believe that the "military campaign against Hezbollah is working and should be carried forward"? Which campaign are they watching? It is the bizzaro world perfectly defined. Failure is success; defeat is victory; light is dark; up is down, etc. It's amazing that these people actually lead a nation at all, let alone the strongest in the world.

[pinto]

13. No I think the big point of the piece is that US wanted to see if

an air based campaign could "take out" underground installations - war game playing in real time, as it were. If, as is widely believed, Hizb'allah was provided technical/logistical assistance from Iran, then their underground sites would be a duplicate of those likely to be found in Iran should the US attempt air strikes there. Hence the US involvement in the planning, if what Hersch claims is accurate.

While some of Hersch's claims seem a stretch at times, the US cooperating with Israel on strategic planning in a type of quid pro quo for specific operational info doesn't seem so far fetched. I'm sure in the halls of State, Defense and the Pentagon it would make perfect sense. Go figure...

I thought the most interesting thing Hersch had to say, overall, was his comment on Blitzer's show this morning that our foreign policy and by extension, our military policy - since they have melded somewhere along the line - is essentially a secret and is without oversight.

[breakaleg]

6. One would think... however

Bush still thinks he's winning in Iraq and Afghanistan, so I'm sure he'll find a bright spot in this fiasco as well.

[whosinpower]

7. military strategists?

How would pushing Hizbollah up to the litani river help enable an assault on Iran?

Seems to me that even with 30 000 troops - Hizbollah is still quite capable of a great deal of damage to Israel, given that they launched 250 rockets today alone.

Besides - any attack on Iran will draw in the russians. I am not so sure that Iran is the target. For all their sabre rattling - it seems to me that Syria is in a much more immediate dangerous predicament. But what the heck do I know - nuthin.

[RufusEarl]

8. Reality based? this admin i think not !

I've read allot lately about a new terra attack against US, similar to WTC to gain support for an invasion of Iran. Now imho this is plausible, it like 9-11 will be an inside job.

[Mochapolo]

14. Iran attack is a little iffy . . . if you're sane

Whether Israel's attack on Lebanon was a test run or just a preparation for Bush to attack Iran, the attack is a failure. But, as we know, failures are not a problem for the insane. Besides if they call it a success, the choir will sing it as a success. Who cares about reality when they can make up their own reality? . . . as the sane stand speechless.

From what I've read, the generals are opposed to attacking Iran. They don't know where anything is, and, I believe, Iran has a 6,000,000 man army, well heeled with the latest in missiles. But Bush believes that war is what makes great presidents, and he wants to be a great president. What wasn't mentioned was that it's successful war presidents that become, "in his eyes," great presidents. If Bush attacks Iran, will the Shias in Iraq pounce on the US troops? An attack on Iran may well unite Iraq, just as the Israeli attack united the Lebanese.

I would think that an attack on Iran is too iffy. But I'm anti-war (and anti-killing people or little animals, including cockroaches) and (I think) sane, and I don't have any nuklaar bombs. So, Bush could just go ahead and take a chance. After all, 50% of the people still believe that Saddam had WMD and was tied to Al-Q. So, even if Bush attacks Iran, with a little spin 50% of the people will wind up believing that Iran attacked us. And if God tells him to do it . . .

[newyawker99]

17. Hi Mochapolo !!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RufusEarl]

18. Necons do create their on reality, it's part of their mantra !

I'm not so sure Bu$h would get 50% approval on invading Iran, he may have two years ago but no longer, thank goodness!!

But if you add another terra attack to the BS, then all bets are off. And i have allot of folks telling me that a future terra attack is just around the corner, and it's going to be an inside job.

But the reality of this deal is know one has a clue what Bu$h might do, he's so unstable he could do anything.

Welcome to DU, look forward to hearing what you have to say!

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. for the neocons it might provide an argument for why it is so important

I would not assume that they would learn anything from this. They are ideologues to the core.

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. They either think they actually did win, or they think they will just have

to try harder & longer next time. Either way, it's bad news.

[raysr]

16. Better start sewing

more flags Betsy, alot of coffins headed your way!

[JohnyCanuck]

15. Dubya talks to God,

so it will depend on what he thinks God is telling him to do. If he thinks God says, "Invade and smite the heathen for me, George, and make sure you slaughter their women, children and household pets just like I told those good, God fearing folks in the Old Testament to do when I gave them the OK to invade and take someone elses land," well it's gonna happen

[Karenina]

19. SHOULD... But it won't.

:banghead: