Interesting post at DailyKos

[IntiRaymi]

This is the link:

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/8/13/1126/04801/4#c4

what will happen now? (0 / 0)

Everybody obviously notice, there are a lot of Iranian equipments in Lebanon, and by extension a whole lot of novel light infantry strategy.

Lebanon-Israel war is a test case on bigger US vs. Syria/Iran war. Israel lost.

1. Iran now knows Israel communication capability during front line combat.

2. integration between infantry and armored vehicles plus helis are all known.

3. Israel tanks are not as effective (strategically, technically) as it is often talked about.

4. If there is Iran vs US war, we will not have the capability to keep the gulf open without massive casualties. Israel is retarded enough to lost a corvette class ship against Hezbollah, from all things... (completely embarrasshing) Not that anybody ever take Israel naval power seriously.

------

In term of geopolitical balance.

1. Hezbollah now is a legit and credible power. It is now fully integrated into Lebanese politics. Next we will see Hezbollah integration into Lebanese army.

2. Israel does not have the capability to occupy Southern Lebanon. Everybody knows this, Hezbollah knows this. They can just kep taunting Israel and launch rockets, and there is not a single thing Israel can do about it, short of launching another failed invasion.

3. This mean Syria, Iran now has a solid front line. They can just launch whole barage of ever bigger missiles and Israel can't do jack except killing few thousands civilians and bombing bunch of apartments.

4. Unless Israel do something in Palestine, within 5 years, Palestine will adopt similar military structure and tactic as Hezbollah.

5. Israel will have to live with massive amount of internal terrorism now. With high power explosive, instead of rediculous suicide bombers. The terrorists will stop attacing civilians and start attacking national infrastructures instead. (expensive, irreplaceable factories, power distributions, water sources, killing academics/engineers/professionals)

think of what Al Qaeda is doing in Iraq, except with tunnels and epertise supplied by Syria and Iran.

Essentially, now Iran and Syria are doing payback time. They are doing guerilla war into Israel from Lebanon.

by fugue on Sun Aug 13, 2006 at 08:26:17 AM PDT

To me this poster is basically this: That we are being stalemated by guerrilla tactics, and in a very effective manner.
Shock and Awe does not work.

[cool user name]

1. Wow ... that was profoundly insightful ...

Also, the Palestinians adobted the suicide bombing tactic from Hezbollah in 1994. Look for them to adopt this neutralizing Hezbollah tactic in the near future with perhaps a third intifada.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. The samurai called it "Counting Guns"

I think it was the samurai ... it could have been Sun Tzu.

The idea is to provoke a small skirmish, assess the enemy's combat capabilities -- counting the guns and/or other weapons, as the case may be -- and use that to plan for The Big War.

I have been unsettled by this recent mini-war in the Middle East. Both Israel, and Iran and its proxies, have acted very strangely. Of course, war itself is a very strange thing, but this one is stranger than usual; I have no other way to describe it.

--p!

[KittyWampus]

4. Several reliable commentators noted Israel has been unprepared

for the capablities displayed by Hezbollah.

Does Israel think it is using up all Hezbollah's rockets?

Can Hezbollah acquire more rockets?

[Lefty48197]

7. I have a better question:

Since it's clear that Syria and Iran will continue to make rockets available to those that want to land rockets on Israeli cities, the better question is: Will Hezbollah continue to be allowed to operate in Southern Lebanon where their rockets can REACH Israel? The answer to my question is no. That's what this whole operation is about, keeping Hezbollah and their rockets out of reach of Israeli citizens.

[KittyWampus]

8. But the Israeli army will have to occupy that portion of Lebanon...

making THEM sitting ducks.

[Lefty48197]

11. No. No. LEBANON can occupy southern Lebanon

for the first time in a generation. If Lebanon can police it's own country, then that will go a long way toward ensuring peace in that region.

[eridani]

13. If the Lebanese army is supposed to do that--

--then why are the Israelis bombing them?

[Lefty48197]

16. They're bombing the Lebanese army? Better call CNN caused they missed that

story.

Lebanon hasn't policed southern Lebanon for 25 years. Iran and Syria have controlled the region thru their proxy, Hezbollah. With the Syrian military OUT of Lebanon, and the roads leading to southern Lebanon from Syria and Iran destroyed, the Hezbollah murderers find themselves a snake without a head.

[eridani]

17. It's been reported in many other places

Do a board search on 'Lebanese army'. There was a big convoy including members of the Lebanese army that was bombed just last week.

[theanarch]

3. i think it's called "misunderestimating" the enemy...

...all technologically advanced military powers do it, and the underlying presumption is quite racist: in Vietnam, we were convinced that a bunch of hand-holding faggots in black pajama's couldn't possibly defeat the world's strongest military machine...but they did (if you can find it, Loren Baritz's "Backfire" is an excellent read). The Nazi's thought of Slavic people's as sub-human, but got their asses handed to them on the Russian front. The British sent to supress the colonies in 1776 thought we were just another bunch of peasant rabble who'd run at the mere sight of them. Rome lost countless legions to uncivilized barbarians in distant wars of choice. And no matter how many times it happens, superpowers keep blundering into the next colonial war having learned absolutely nothing from the last...with the possible exception of how to repeat the same mistakes on a greater, bloodier scale.

[enuffs_enuffs]

5. Arrogance... don't ya just LOVE IT!

Since history has been recorded... the "Big Man on Campus" has forever underestimated his enemy. You simply can't use mercenery mindsets to oust people from their homes... unless you kill every last one. And that's only workable on a small scale... say an isolated villege or two.

[elehhhhna]

6. RECOMMENDED! Makes perfect sense.

[pelsar]

9. actually the post is wrong....

israels slow start was political not military...once the miliary was given the "go" without the political strings, it took the IDF about 5 days to reach the litani. Tank losses appear to be about 5-10...with some tanks taking 20 anti tank hits and surviving.....

Hizballas has shown, by refusing the cease fire as i write this that they are the true political power in lebanon and in fact were in the process of taking over the whole country.

the lesson is that by letting "non state actors" use a countries land for their activities, they will eventually attempt to take over their host country.

if the war didnt happen now, it would have been much worse for the lebanese and israelis in the future, when Hizballa had even more control.

_____

The palestenains are now stopping their kassams with the locals threating the families of the shooters...public pressure can have influence on "non state actors"...they just have to be pushed a bit.

[Roland99]

10. Just like Hersh's article reports: Air campaigns are continually used ...

yet they continually fail to achieve the objectives.

[wellst0nev0ter]

12. I Don't Agree That Palestinians Can Have Similar Military Structures

because Israel basically has the territories hermetically sealed. Israel has had difficulty in this latest skirmish because they were so used to bombing the shit out of underarmed Palestinians.

[leftofthedial]

14. fundies and assymetrical warfare

both disproportionately kill the academics, professionals and technologists

[dave123williams]

15. Hezbollah is not a legit political power.

They use kidnapping and murder as policy tools.