The Double Irony of Bush Losing Western Assets in the ME

[gulliver]

Is Bush doing good for the country by screwing up so badly in the Middle East? Maybe Bush's unintentional loss of U.S. control in the Middle East is actually good for us.

I think about this a lot, and here is where I started to worry that the whole concept of Dems doing the right thing in Iraq might ultimately be bad for the country. Suppose Kerry were in charge now, and the United States were doing the right thing in the Middle East. Then our influence in the region would start to go up again. In perhaps twenty years, the immense territory and oil control we have lost (under Bush) to Islamic radicalism might be partially recovered. But is that really good for America?

Maybe by unintentionally ceding territory and oil control to radical Islam, Bush has released the "tectonic" petro-political tension between us and our enemies. After they get the tangibles they want (land and oil), Islamic radicals will have less reason to want to attack us. They will still have the hatred Bush confirmed and worsened in them, of course, but they won't have real estate and oil to drive them to war.

It's hard to see a pattern in the mess, but one thing seems clear. Clear away secondary abstractions like religion and it looks like radical Islam has simply gained territory and oil under Bush. That's exactly what they wanted. It remains to be seen whether it also ends up being good for America. One thing is for sure, Bush has the country more and more tightly trapped on a one-way road of complete loss of U.S. influence in the Middle East. Maybe we will conserve more because we have to. Maybe we will learn to play with others again because we have to.

[EVDebs]

1. Radical Islam, having nothing to offer besides access to oil

peters out when the oil runs out. Then what ?

[gulliver]

2. They live on their foreign investments, I suppose.

I think the oil company called Saudi Arabia does that. Not sure what the Shia in Iraq will do with their newfound wealth. I guess we might have to ask Sistani or Sadr what they plan on doing with it.

[EVDebs]

3. Iran is busy funding Hezbollah, and it looks like Iraq post civil war will

do likewise. Bush's adventure backfires bigtime, to paraphase Cheney. But in the end, the end of oil will lead to even bigger questions...for everyone to answer.

Plan B 2.0 by Lester Brown shows us that the world has until 2031 if things keep going as they are.

Arithmetic-wise, world oil reserves at 1 trillion barrels divided by a consumption pattern of 85 million barrels per day, and rising --with India/China economies mimicing the US--world consumption is estimated to hit 120 million barrels per day within 20 years, leaves us close to Brown's estimate of 2031.

Where does radical Islam go then ? Where does radical conservative politics goe then in the West ? Many will be left scratching their heads.