http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/11/223433/135As the Rasmussen poll shows, Lieberman's only hope to win in Connecticut is based not only on winning some Republican votes, but actually upon winning about 70% of Republican votes, including the majority of the far-right wing conservative base. Even with the pathetic, scandal plagued Republican in the race at a shockingly low 6%, all of Lieberman's gains are still coming from Republican voters, and his "margin" over Ned Lamont is still within the margin of error. If a non-scandal plagued, even vaguely competent Republican were on the ballot, this campaign would already be over. With a Republican at 20%, Lamont would be ahead. With a Republican at 27%, Lamont would be ahead outside the margin of error. And that would be before all of the donations switch, all of the advocacy groups abandon Lieberman, and every major Democrat in the country publicly tosses Lieberman to the curb. Were it not for Schlesinger, Lieberman's third-party, do-over campaign would already be little more than an amusing footnote in a blowout-election.
Lieberman knows that not only Republicans, but the far-right wing conservative base is his only path to victory. That is why he is now claiming that the terrorists are now somehow worse than the Holocaust or the Soviet Union. That is the sort of batshit wingnuttery that appeals to the Little Green Footballs crowd--teh same crowd he knows he has to win to pull this thing out. Soon, in the name of "bi-partisanship," we can expect him to start calling for a fifty-foot fence along our borders, and for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iran. I mean, seriously, if you think that Al-Qaeda is worse than the Third Reich or Stalin, why should we ever expect your crazy wingnuttery to restrain itself?
If Schlesinger were to drop out of the race, and a less felonious Republican placed on the ballot, Lieberman would be toast. He is probably toast anyway, but in that scenario the campaign would turn into a blowout sooner, rather than later. If he is at only 46% with a majority of Republican votes, he would truly have no chance if a credible Republican entered the race. Two weeks ago, when looking through old election returns, I noticed that in the vast majority of House districts, simply having a candidate on the ballot guarantees a major party 20-27% of the vote. A percentage like that means that you automatically win a sizable majority of your own partisan self-identifiers. Thus, if Schlesinger drops out, and another Republican takes his place, Lieberman has no shot at winning a majority of the Republican vote, and is therefore finished.
While Schlesinger says he is staying in (someone needs to check to see if he is on Lieberman's payroll) Republicans in Connecticut are working hard to replace him. They have, for example, approached Jack Orchulli, who is open to the idea. Orchulli got waxed by Dodd in 2004, winning only 32% of the vote in a two-way race. It is a mathematical impossibility to win a three way race without at least 33.4% of the vote. If Orculli could not pull that off in a two-way race, there is no chance at all he could win a three-way race. While he couldn't win, if he or any other even semi-credible Republican were ont eh ballot, Lamont would instanesouly take a commanding lead. This would allow us as Democrats to turn our attentions elsewhere, expect to bask in Lamont's warm glow and mock Lieberman ala Katherine Harris in Florida. There is not other reason to pay attention to the Florida Senate race except to mock Katherine Harris. I love to see Connecituct in the same category.
more at link.....
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