Ap Poll: Bush approval sinks back to 33%, Dems lead Reps 55%-37%

[Grebrook]

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/08/11/ap2942820.html

To sum the article up, Dems lead Reps 55%-37% for this fall. That's the highest amount of voters pledging to vote for Democrats so far, and 19% of voters who cast their ballots for Bush in 2004 say they're voting Democrat!

What have conservative weasels like Dick Morris been preaching for so long? That if terrorism is in the news, it helps Bush, and that only things like health care and the economy help the Democrats. Allegedly, if voters have terrorism on the mind, Republicans win. Well, guess not. Bush's approval has fallen down to just 33% again, just one day after Fox released a poll showing him at 36% with Dems leading in the fall 48-30% for Congress.

I hope the Reps are ready for a MASSACRE.

[HereSince1628]

1. Well we haven't seen polls that are after yesterday's news.

Don't be surprised to see a positive spike. He'll be getting more than his diserved share of credit for British efforts.

[Gman]

2. I don't know how to reconcile this with

this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2773239&mesg_id=2773239

[Zynx]

3. First of all, they have never gotten 95% of their base in any election

to vote. Not even 2004.

Second, they only won in 2004 by splitting the independent vote down the middle, not by getting their base out in huge numbers. We are dominating them among independents, thus they can't win by bringing any amount of their base out. We win. They lose. End of story.

[Grebrook]

4. 95% is an impossibility

Even if 95% planned and tried, that many people would not make it to the polls because of simple physical inability to get there from one reason or another. 95% is simply impossible. Additionally, passionate hate for this president is more of a motivator to vote than stopping Nancy Pelosi from leading the House will be for the Republicans. I haven't seen any studies on how high the turnout will be for Democrats, but I guarantee it will be incredibly high.

[Grebrook]

6. Also, Bush's approval among conservatives is too low for 95% to come out

He only has about a 70% approval rating among conservatives, and it's fallen as low as 50%. By November it might be back down there. And I doubt conservatives will be that motivated with a lack of gay marriage amendments out there, the GOP deficit spending and the GOP's inability to coordinate a real anti-immigrant legislative package. A lot of Republicans will be voting for MInutemen nutcases and Libertarians.

[Gman]

10. You guys are right

But I don't think they're defining "base" as someone that is simply a registered Repub. I think they have to be a known fundie with the usual known personality disorders. I kinda think that's who they polled. I don't think this was a random sample poll, but very selective handpicking of respondents that conform to their profile of their base. Its the people they must get to the polls and it looks like they will. Independents would not have been included in this. If this subset of the GOP turns out at 95% and the Dem base turns out at 85% we lose.

Just like any other off year election, whoever gets their voters to the polls wins. Turnout in off year elections is usually less than 20%, and probably averages 15%. There's a huge pool of people that are pissed at Bush. They just got to go vote.

[zanne]

8. I read an article a few days ago that stated the opposite.

I know I got the link from here on DU; I just did a search, but I'm a lousy searcher. Anyway, the article said that the GOP is very worried that many of their members are planning to stay home this election day. They're incredibly pissed at the GOP, but aren't ready to vote for a Democrat. Maybe somebody else would have better luck finding that article.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. I'm lousy at searches as well....

but, I remember reading a similar article here. I think Frank Luntz was the Repub pollster that said that if the current trend holds, a lot (i mean a lot) of republicans plan to sit this one out. In some corners, it's even been rumored that conservatives want us to take back the congress, b/c they think there needs to be some real opposition to this neo-con madness.

Does anyone still wonder why we stopped looking for Osama? He's the gift that just keeps on giving. He can be trotted out everytime *'s poll numbers drop to the low 30's.

[C_U_L8R]

5. GOP is clueless on terror

they may be able to make political hay of it
but they are making a huge mess trying to defeat it
(if in fact they are trying at all)

[skooooo]

7. down...DowN....DOWN!!

ROCK LOBSTER~!

[warrens]

9. Don't get too excited

As the elections get closer, it will tighten again. People tend to blast the national party, but "their" guy gets a pass. For both parties.

[chat_noir]

12. kick and pic

MoPaul, we miss you and your talent..

[Ilsa]

13. Bush, Rove, et al are tap dancing on life vests while the sharks circle.

Their cause is lost and they know it. I don't think they can even hope for another foiled attempt to improve their numbers. It would only prove that Chucklenut's policies have made us the most hated nation in the world, and eventually a plot won't be stopped in time. I shudder to think about it, but I fear it's true.