McClatchy Newspapers
NEW YORK - From bustling Wall Street to the quiet corridors of the Federal Reserve, there's widespread agreement that the once-sizzling U.S. economy is slowing.
The question now is what's next: a return to stable, modest growth or a skid into recession.
The answer will play out in the months ahead. It depends on whether soaring energy prices ease, inflation threats diminish and the slumping housing sector stabilizes or sinks.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said this month that loan applications to purchase homes in July were down 20 percent from the same month a year earlier. The National Association of Home Builders said this month that its housing-market index dipped in June to its lowest level since 1991. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that existing-home sales would fall 6.5 percent this year.
Richard Berner, the chief U.S. economist for banking giant Morgan Stanley, expects the housing slowdown alone to trim U.S. economic growth by as much as 1.5 percentage points.
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