LAMONT WILL WIN IF 61% of Lieberman's voters will support Lamont

[berni_mccoy]

The turnout on yesterday's Primary election was around 41%. 144k votes for Lamont + 134k votes for Lieberman = 278 votes which, as of 2004, is 41% of the registered Democrats in CT.

Now, as was posted in another post here on DU (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1865147) noting that CNN announced that 61% of Lieberman's voters would now vote for Lamont, that means that 81.74k voters from the primary will vote for Lamont in November. Assuming the same voter turnout rate, that means Lamont would have 225.74k votes and the Republican challenger would have 180k votes and Lieberman would be left with 52.26k votes in a three-way race.

Lieberman better quit now or he's going to be sorely embarrased come November.

[davidinalameda]

1. you're assuming a lot, and that's not a criticism

first of all, the Repukes aren't going to support their own candidate in this race; they're going to put resources into helping old Joe

I doubt that 61% of Lieberman voters will vote for Lamont; I don't see that figure being any higher than maybe 20-40% and I think that may be stretching it a bit

[SeattleRob]

5. Bingo!

I think it is a mistake to think that Repukes will automatically vote for the Republican Candidate or Lieberman. A majority of Republicans are mad at Bush - and do not like his policies. A Vote for Lieberman is a vote for the Bush Policies. I suspect a lot of Republican voters will vote for Lamont or perhaps they will stay home.

[WI_DEM]

2. It's actually a CBS exit poll and while 61% of all primary voters don't

want him to run as a write-in--3/4th of Lieberman voters do want him to run as a write in.

[berni_mccoy]

4. Ugh, that's bad news for Lamont

Lamont needs a min. of 37% of Lieberman's voters to ensure a win against the repub using same assumptions above.

[phantom power]

3. As long as he doesn't throw the election to GOP candidate-X...

I don't care how badly he embarrasses himself. In fact, the more humiliation, the better. All things considered, though, I really hope he comes to his senses and doesn't run, just in case.

... Unless he runs as the GOP candidate ...

:evilgrin:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

6. Actually, As It Stands Right Now, I Fear Joe Could Beat Ned.

We have a lot of work to do between now and November and have to keep goin strong.

[high density]

7. So much for that BS in another thread

that Lamont supporters were "wealthy elites." The income stats prove equal support amoung all groups.

[lindisfarne]

8. Lieberman knows he will get a lot of the Republican vote - that's why

he thinks he can win in the general when he didn't when in the Dem. primary.