CBS News/NYT Connecticut Exit Poll

[VolcanoJen]

Link to the .pdf file:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/ctexitpoll.pdf

Some of the most interesting results:

- 61% of all Democratic Primary voters do not believe Lieberman should run as an independent, while 3 out of 4 of Lieberman voters said he should. (wow)

- 1 in 5 voters were voting in their first Democratic Primary ever.

- 43% of Lamont voters listed Opposition to the Iraq War as their main reason for voting for him. 24% said because Lieberman wouldn't oppose Bush, 21% said simply that it was time for a change. (I think that 21% number is staggering, and encouraging.)

- 78% of all Democratic Primary voters disapprove of the U.S. decision to go to Iraq.

- 60% of those who disapprove of the war broke for Lamont. (I would have thought that number would be larger.)

- 59% of all voters said Lieberman is too close to Bush, but 7 in 10 of Lieberman voters did not think he was too close to Bush.

- 71% of all voters strongly disapprove of Bush's job performance.

[sandrakae]

1. This just tells me if you sleep with dogs you wake up with fleas.

[WI_DEM]

2. That 3/4 number of Lieberman supporters wanting him to run as Indie

bothers me.

[VolcanoJen]

3. It absolutely shocks me.

I guess they'll support him under any condition. Wow.

[David Dunham]

4. They say they wil SUPPORT him as an indie. That means Ned loses.

[VolcanoJen]

5. You'd like that, wouldn't you?

Weren't you running around yesterday claiming that Ned was "busted" hacking Lieberman's website?

[Richard Steele]

8. Yes he sure would.

And yes he sure was.

[Horse with no Name]

7. Not necessarily

since many Republicans registered as Democrats to vote in this election.
The figures ACTUALLY tell me that 3 out of 4 people WHO VOTED FOR JOE were probably Republicans to start with. They don't count.:)

[MercutioATC]

9. There's plenty of time 'till the election. A lot can happen.

Let's see what 8 or 10 million dollars and numerous endorsements from Dem heavy-hitters do to Lamont's numbers before we bury him, shall we?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Only 49% of Dems would support Lamont in 3 way

That's pretty bad. That should be 60% minimum, if not 80%.

[WI_DEM]

6. well find out soon how the race is looking I hear Rasmussen is

polling right now. His last poll had a three way race 40-40-13 Ned, Lieberman, and the GOP candidate.

[longship]

12. I predict next Rasmussen will go like this.

Pre-election poll: 40-40-13 w/ 7 undecided.

Assumptions:
* Loserman will lose some ground, but not much.
* Ned will gain that ground.
* The undecideds will break for Lamont (general rule of thumb in a pissed-at-the-incumbent year).
* Lieberman will take most of the rest of the undecideds.

If the pre-primary poll is accurate, and if the election were held today, it might go something like this:

Lamont: 46% == 40 + 2 (swing from Lieberman) + 4 (most of the undecideds)
Lieberman: 40% == 40 - 2 (swing to Lamont) + 2 (undecideds)
Repug: 14% == 13 + 1 (undecideds)

I don't think that anybody could come up with any realistic scenerio where things swing towards Lieberman. They would have to convince me that a vast proportion of voters would think it was alright for a candidate to ignore their wishes.

Here's the big catch here. If any one of my assumptions are wrong, Lamont still prevails. I cannot think that two of my assumptions could conceivably be that faulty, but if that were true, the race would still be tied.

[unpossibles]

10. call me crazy

but I have a hard time believing that there are that many Democrats that would turn their backs on the party at a crucial moment like this. More spin, imo.

I am not a Loyalist, other than to my family, the Constitution, and America - if the Dems had been screwing things up for the last few decades the way the Repugs have whenever they're in power, I'd be mad at them instead - but I cannot fathom how anyone who is not a NeoCon could say that, at least not in those kind of numbers. Ridiculous.

So if voter turnout was about 40% of registered Dems (have not heard the latest figures) and No-Mentum got almost half of that (we'll call it 19% of the total) and 3/4 of them would part ways over this, then about 14% of CT Dems are claiming they'd vote for more Republican control of the country by sabotaging the Dems?

At a time when things are not exactly going well?

BS.