Joe Lieberman's Independent Bid - Why I Feel That It Just Isn't Practical.

[VolcanoJen]

So, Joe went and did it... he filed and he's planning to run as an independent. The deadline was today, and he pretty much had to file.

But, some of us in this thread feel that he's not going to last in this race. In fact, I give it a few weeks at best.

There's simply no mechanism for an independent bid by Joe. Does everyone realize how much it costs to run a Senate campaign? Ned Lamont gets all the Dem money, because parties take care of their own. He gets the DSCC, a veritable cash cow. Lamont gets the vast networking, the organization, the GOTV machine, the phone banks, the website, the all-star campaign staff, the best of the best to serve as surrogate talking heads to support him. Cream of the crop, all the big names. Lamont gets the enormous ad buys that win elections in the closing weeks. He also gets the blogs, and I don't think anyone will ever underestimate their impact again. All in all, The Party is a big, powerful, beautiful machine.

So, where does that leave Joe? What does Joe get? Who lines up behind him? There is no Independent Party. The two party system depends on the minority party to be a responsible and vigorous watchdog, something Joe refuses to abide by. He's on his own. He has to find his own money, and he has to find A LOT of it, and he has to find it quickly. How the hell is he going to pull that off? Is he going to knock on doors himself?

He's going to need to come up with millions in just a few short weeks for any political watcher to deem his candidacy viable. If the press doesn't get behind him in the next few weeks, they never will. Even if the campaign gets moving and the media buys into it, who's going to go on Tim Russert and Face the Nation and Chris Matthews and Larry King to stand up for Joe? Can you think of anyone? Especially after the wagons circle and the anger over his betrayal within the Democratic leadership grows?

I imagine Joe still has some Democrats left on his campaign staff, and they're going to leave him, because they have political careers they're working on, and they don't want to get blackballed by the party just to serve Joe's ego. And all those fools standing behind him on that stage last night? They're gone next week. Joe is dunzo.

It's going to take a few weeks, but I think he's going to wake up and smell the reality. He can't go it alone in the wilderness. And while Rove might want to reach out to him and help him, today. It's a Rovian move, get ahead of a story, steal the headlines and control the message for at least that day. But in the end, Karl Rove is a Party Man, and he's not going to crap all over the GOP just because he's bitter about losing his favorite Democrat. Karl's a long-term thinker, you know. Joe doesn't fit in with his November plans.

Joe won't run. He can't. Sure, he's running today, but he'll withdraw. I think it'll become crystal clear in the coming weeks.

Look for one of those sobering, "After much reflection, I've decided to spend more time with my family, and to pursue the causes I am most passionate about" speeches from Joe Lieberman.

What's next for Joe? He's headed down Katherine Harris Boulevard, and he's going to make a right on Zell Miller Lane. :-)

[Skink]

1. the DLC will back it.

[John Q. Citizen]

5. I doubt it. An individual or two might but not the organization.

They don't want to have Joe drag them down with him.

[Cronus Protagonist]

12. The RNC will definitely back him

As well as the Green candidates, if any.



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[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. They have been for several weeks.

Yep, a check from Club For Growth is already in the mail.

[SaveElmer]

36. Brother...DLC cannot contribute to political candidates...

One of the enduring myths about the DLC is that they can somehow fund political campaigns...

Their tax status specifically prohibits that!

They ahve the same status ad the Brookings Institute, AEI etc...

[bvar22]

63. The DLC HAS the influence and power....

...to direct funds through backdoor channels. They also have ALL the resources of their Corporate Sponsors at their disposal.

[SaveElmer]

65. Prove it...

Show me the exact mechanism by which the DLC illegally directs funds to these candidates...

BTW: why would they have to use backdoor channels...corporate pacs can give to candidates...and they do both to DLC and non-DLC candidates...legally.

[madinmaryland]

2. What even more ironic about Joe running as an independent, is that

the only independent party in Connecticut is the Connecticut Party which was started by Lowell Weiker, after he had given up on the two parties in CT.

Think that Joe will get the support of that party.

BWAHAHAHAHA!

[John Q. Citizen]

3. To paraphrase Hillery, "Joe search your conscience, or at least

your bank account."

[Squeech]

4. Interesting

to say the least.

I disagree with the premise that the press isn't on board; they have been all along.

The money will be tighter than he's used to, but I doubt the spigots will be open wide for Lamont. And if Joe has any constituency at all, it's K street-- all those lobbyists who donated so hugely to Delay, Cunningham, and all those whores will help Joementum out in a misguided attempt at bipartisan cover, and the press (see above) will dutilfully report it as such.

But one of the subthemes of this campaign is, Joe doesn't really understand Connecticut any more-- and there's no amount of money that will buy him a simpatico campaign staff. It'll be all Lieberkids and Rove wannabes, and they'll burn through all the money they get, and still lose.

[VolcanoJen]

6. About lobbyists...

You know, they're not a terribly loyal lot. Joe Lieberman just left the two-party system, and lobbyists aren't interested in buying independent politicians. Lobbyists buy a politician and his friends. Lieberman's not a bargain anymore.

They'll roll up the red carpet for Joe, and go shopping elsewhere.

[LeftyMom]

32. Mrs. L's lobbying job's probably a goner

Who wants to buy the services of the wife of a lame duck, persona non grata Senator? The family name won't get doors opened or phone calls answered anymore.

[senseandsensibility]

7. The bottom line is where will the money come from?

I agree with all of the OP's points. But does anyone know what Joe's legal avenues are for raising money at this point? I'm sure his corporate buddies would love to just stuff his coffers with cash, but he can't accept it, can he? I must say, I am pleased that all Dems have come out against him today.

[VolcanoJen]

10. Reed Hundt has a great essay - saying we can force him out financially.

Reed Hundt - The Democratic Response to the message from Connecticut

There's a chance that Senator Lieberman would exit with the grace and wisdom that characterized virtually all of his public service, and that chance will be maximized if he can see the money pouring in to the Lamont coffers, and drying up on his side.

A short read... and I think it makes the point.

[senseandsensibility]

14. Yes, good essay

and a quick read.

[HereSince1628]

8. Hadasah (sp?) is a Washington DC lobbyist... the money will come

from there. Expect the loser to get a lot of support from the insurance industry and military contractors. Afterall, in 18 years he has surely has chits to call in.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Have you noticed the staggering speed at which Joe's friends...

... are running away from him today? I mean, every single Democratic Senator, for starters. That's huge.

Lobbyists don't buy politicians who don't have friends and no longer wield power and commitee chairmanships. They don't spend their money quite that foolishly. What on earth does a lobbyist have to lose, at this point, by not supporting Joe? What's he going to do about it?

Think about it.

[Skink]

11. Still if having him as an independant keeps the Senate under GOP

management come Nov. I'm sure there is a republican slush fund he can wade into.

[warrens]

13. My feeling is that he will withdraw

I don't have any reason to think so, but I remember him when he ran in 04 and all that Joementum crap, but when reality hit, he had the ability to face facts.

[blossomstar]

15. Well said, what a wonderful and articulate post! THANK YOU.

I will stop worrying... your post makes more since than anything I've read all day... he will withdraw when the reality finally hits that he will not win. LOVE the Zell Miller Lane... nobody likes traitors.

[Zomby Woof]

16. Joementum is now Nomentum

...and he's going to make a right on Zell Miller Lane. :spray:

[VolcanoJen]

17. Did you hear that he just fired his staff?

Joe Fires His Staff

It's happening rather quickly, isn't it? I didn't expect the defections to come until the weekend.

[Zomby Woof]

18. A desperate floundering act...

...of a man and a campaign that is deader than Terry Schiavo.

[IowaGuy]

19. let's face it...Joe became washed up as a serious campaigner

clear back in the winter of 2003 in Iowa with that lame effort at a presidential run and that embarrasingly goofy concept of "Joementum"....that just left everybody cringing and averting any eye contact at all...that was the beginning of him not being taken seriously by the party faithful.

[Generator]

20. I hope you are right but

how much money does he need? He will get all the free airtime he wants on CNN and FOX. Everyone knows him in CT, and much of the country. I'm not a campaign expert like you, so I hope you are correct. I hope to hell some in the Democratic party doesn't secretly back him-you know those that are scared of "these people" that are threatening to take over. The dreaded LEFT WING EXTREMISTS. Some of them think we are the problem you know, not the Republicans.

Also, I'm sure he has a few right wing fans, some backing Israel that would be happy to fund him. He's exactly what they want. I'm sure Joe has no problem taking money from anyone,you know. He's AGAINST partisanship. Joe first, last, and always, I expect.

[VolcanoJen]

21. The media is enamored of him. Today.

They have been in the past, too. You know, he's the poster boy of Bush's phony bipartisanship; hence, a media darling because he always fit into their narrative.

But Joe's not in the narrative anymore. He jumped off-script. He's challenging the two-party system. He's just lost all of his friends. He even fired his staff (before they had a chance to quit). He's launched himself into the wilderness.

He's got a shelf life, but interest in the Lieberman story will expire sooner than we might think. It's been quite the summer for news stories, and his will be trumped.

Right now, the media's in a bit of an "underdog" frenzy, but they'll wake up soon and realize that an independent campaign by Joe Lieberman isn't realistic. It isn't viable.

It's romantic, and that's about all it is. And as we all know, romance wears off...

[adamuu]

22. Nice post

I imagine Joe still has some Democrats left on his campaign staff, and they're going to leave him, because they have political careers they're working on, and they don't want to get blackballed by the party just to serve Joe's ego. And all those fools standing behind him on that stage last night? They're gone next week. Joe is dunzo.

Thats a good point.

[Punkingal]

23. I agree completely...

I was thinking the same thing last night. I almost feel sorry for his egotistical ass. He is going to regret all his actions sooner or later, because this is NOT going to work for him. And talk about burning bridges! Even if he switches to the Republican party at some point, I can't imagine his getting elected again in Connecticut anytime in the future. An ego gone wild....I've been observing that characteristic in him ever since Al Gore chose him as a running mate, and now it is going to take him down in a big way. IMHO

[VolcanoJen]

34. It's really quite staggering, the depth of his ego, isn't it?

Who would have dreamed that six years later, our VP nominee would stab us in the back in such an unapologetic, shameless manner?

He's gotta go. The beauty of the thing is, we're so entrenched in the two-party system, and Washington is so wrapped up in the spiderweb of the two-party system, that the system itself will swallow Joe whole.

The system is patient. The system always wins.

:hi: Hi Punkingal!! :hi:

[kcwayne]

24. The RNC will fund him, this move guarantees a (R) victory in Nov.

Joe will split the Democratic vote. He will get money from the RNC, big Pharma, Defense companies, and others. The RNC has to be estatic about Joe destroying the opportunity for Democratic leadership in CT.

[scavok]

30. No I think the Republicans are counting on Lieberman to win

and then join their party after the election.

The Republicans aren't happy with their candidate in this race. Schlesinger has gambling allegations swirling around his campaign. The Governor is trying to get him to step down and be replaced by someone better. One person that he can't replace him with, is Joe Lieberman. Also, Joe can't become a Republican now because he would lose his place on the ballot.

In Lieberman, the Republicans have a candidate that they can support and put their money behind. This would be done with the quid pro quo that Joe jumps parties later.

[Demeter]

25. Now That Democrats Have Brought Reality to Joe Lieberman

it's time to bring Reality knocking on GOP doors, especially Crawford,Texas, where Cindy Sheehan is doing an admirable job of keeping psychological and political pressure on BushCo. This Created Reality game is coming to an abrupt end.

I think VolcanoJen has correctly predicted events--there is still enough transparency that Joe cannot be invisibly bought, and still enough Democratic principle that Lamont cannot be screwed over by the luke warm "leaders" of the DLC, etc.

I was amused the USAToday (only source available, I'm on vacation) wouldn't post a percentage on the Conn. primary--harping on the "only 10,000 votes" meme. It's 4%, and that ain't peanuts. They just didn't steal enough, and the voters didn't flinch.

[Freddie Stubbs]

26. Lieberman has $2 million in the bank

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/08/wednesday_night.html#more

[tyedyeto]

31. He had that on July 27th...

before his last week of ads would have to be paid.

Doesn't really tell us what he has on hand now.

He could very well be hurting for cash and is waiting for an influx of GOP $$$.

[Freddie Stubbs]

57. Not according to the article

One strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Lieberman had about $2 million remaining after the primary race against Lamont.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/08/wednesday_night.html#more

[3reddogs]

28. RNC Money?

Might it not make sense for the Republicans to throw money Joe's way? Their candidate, Alan Schlesinger, is totally weak so what do they have to lose? If they can keep Lieberman in the race 'til the end, and split the Democratic vote in the process, the worst that could happen would be that either their weak candidate will win or Lieberman will win. What am I missing here?

[VolcanoJen]

35. Here's what you're missing...

... what do the Republicans get for their money?

Joe has pledged to caucus with the Democrats if he wins as an Independent (of course, we all know what Joe's word is worth these days).

The current crop of power movers and shakers in the GOP are 100% Loyal to the Bush Ideology. They'd need some kind of pledge from Joe that he'd go "all in" with them. He might do that, but at his own peril... he runs as an Independent promise-maker to Republicans, and he loses for certain.

Connecticut is about as blue as a state can get... and if Joe wants to get elected, he's going to have to run as far away from Bush as possible. He's really stuck. There's no way out. He boxed himself in.

He'll withdraw.

:hi: Welcome to DU! :hi:

[cgrindley]

29. What happens to the money Joe has already raised?

Just wondering?

[calico1]

33. He gets to keep it far as I know. n/t

[SaveElmer]

37. You are wrong...Lieberman is still very dangerous...

Look here...


q20 If Joe Lieberman runs as an Independent in November, and these are the candidates, will you vote for:

Ned Lamont (DEM) 49
Joe Lieberman (IND) 36
Alan Schlesinger (REP) 0
Someone else 1
Not Sure 12
Won't vote 1
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/10/15223/0333

Lieberman only loses 12% of his primary voters by going indie...it is not anywhere near inconceivable that he can pull in enough Republicans and Independents to win...

And money wise...look here

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_06+S8CT00022

As of three weeks ago Lieberman still had 3.5 million cash on hand...

Money is not going to be a problem...

I beg everyone not to underestimate him and assume Lamont will now win easily...it is not true!

[VolcanoJen]

38. But that's today... that's not the way it will shake down.

Lieberman has to keep in the race, he has to keep his name out there, he has to have ads, he has to have phone banks, he has to have a campaign staff, he has to have $$$.

Those polls are based on the present, where Lieberman has name recognition and the incumbency. He might lose only 12% of his primary voters by going indy today, but I'm telling you, I just can't seem him staying in the race for the long haul.

It's not set up like that. Independent candidates have a real uphill battle, even when they're not incumbent, party-leaving Senators like Joe Lieberman. Who supports him now? Who works for him now? Who gives him money, now?

If he tacks right and accepts help from the Republicans, he blows his message entirely. You can't run from the middle while your hand is in the right's pocket.

[SaveElmer]

40. Joe Lieberman is not gonna have money problems...

He has enough cash now to last till the general....

Incumbent independents have the advantage of name recognition, incumbency etc...

For prudence sake if nothing else, it would be extremely foolish to underestimate him

[VolcanoJen]

41. I'm not being foolish.

In fact, I think I'm being more realistic than most.

How much money does Joe have, right now? Does anyone know that? How much did he spend in the waning hours of the primary? I'd wager that it's all gone.

He's boxed himself in, you know. He says he's now "running against the establishment." He says now he's "the center candidate to fight partisanship." How does he accept money from the right and still maintain his brand-new, shiny, self-proclaimed "street cred?"

We can bury him alive on that issue alone. Every penny he gets should be closely scrutinized.

Remember that the reason he lost his primary has more to do with Connecticut's strong anti-Bush sentiment than any other single thing. He can't claim to be the progressive, anti-establishment reformer with his hand in the RNC's pocket. And the RNC has a lot of races they're worried about; they always knew Connecticut would go Dem.

Nobody from the left is going to give him a dime; the right would rather spend their money elsewhere (they have more interest in saving Santorum than helping Lieberman become an independent), and there is no independent party and therefore no independent party financing structure.

Joe's dunzo.

[SaveElmer]

42. As of July 19th

He had 3.5 million cash on hand...I guarantee you he did not spend all of it...much of his on the ground action came from Union supporters...who as far as I know have not withdrawn their support...

"He's boxed himself in, you know. He says he's now "running against the establishment." He says now he's "the center candidate to fight partisanship." How does he accept money from the right and still maintain his brand-new, shiny, self-proclaimed "street cred?""

He only has to maintain this facade for two months...it won't be that difficult if Democrats do foolish things like strip him of his committee assignments

"Remember that the reason he lost his primary has more to do with Connecticut's strong anti-Bush sentiment than any other single thing. He can't claim to be the progressive, anti-establishment reformer with his hand in the RNC's pocket. And the RNC has a lot of races they're worried about; they always knew Connecticut would go Dem."

That's right, and he nearly won the primary. Lamont won that primary, with 10% of the voters that voted in the last election...nearly 1 million Connecticut voters did not particiapte in the primary...most of them independents and Republicans who are not as anti-Bush as Democrats are...all of those peopl ehave to be convinced.

Joe Lieberman is not a political novice...he is an experienced pol, and to count on him making more mistakes is just not smart.

"Nobody from the left is going to give him a dime; the right would rather spend their money elsewhere (they have more interest in saving Santorum than helping Lieberman become an independent), and there is no independent party and therefore no independent party financing structure."

He won't need an independent structure...he will get all the free air time from the media he needs, he likely still has plenty of cash on hand, probably still has the unions on his side. He only has to campaign for 2 months...

I don't understand how it is to our benefit to underestimate rather than over estimate him.

[VolcanoJen]

43. Then take him down on two fronts.

If he stays in this race until November, I'm going to be on the "scrutinize every penny he gets and shatter his credibililty" front.

You can take the "he's an experienced, establishment pol and a media darling who cannot be underestimated" front. But I don't see how not underestimating him helps us defeat him, do you?

Also, I feel strongly that free air time from the media does not put people on the ground and votes in the booths. Only a killer ground organization accomplishes that. Do you think the GOP is going to hand over its ground game keys to Joe Lieberman?

If he stays in we're going to have to campaign against Joe Lieberman the Pro-Bush Independent. I just don't think it's going to be that hard. He's from Connecticut, not Idaho.

[beltanefauve]

71. Sorry Jen,

gotta disagree with you on this one:

I feel strongly that free air time from the media does not put people on the ground and votes in the booths.

My state has an aged action flick star as it's governor thanks to free air time from Jay Leno, Oprah Winfrey and Howard Stern.

[VolcanoJen]

72. OK, so maybe I'll give you California

But wasn't Ahnuld a huge star long before the media jumped on his stardom bandwagon? You can (almost) hardly blame them. And, didn't he run as a Republican? Didn't he have the glorious Republican machine backing him up 110% percent? It's not like he had only the media to rely on, which is the gamble those who think Joe is viable are taking.

I'm not sure it compares. California is a practically a country all by itself. While I don't even begin to attempt to understand the politics out there, I feel that California does not equal Connecticut by any means.

And it feels to me like that "sore loser" tag is really beginning to stick to Joe Lieberman...

[sidpleasant]

54. "[Joe] had 3.5 million cash on hand"

That was 3 weeks ago. Granted he did raise another $1M+ from Republicans in the last ten days of the campaign, but he spent a lot of money on a last minute ad blitz. For example Lieberman lawn signs had been so rare around the state that there was a thread on the CT forum to report sightings of them, then suddenly a week or ten days ago they blossomed everywhere. Joe's TV commercials were inescapable for the last week, and you have to remember that some of those ads were appearing on NYC stations, the most expensive media market in the US.

>>much of his on the ground action came from Union supporters<<

Not really. If he got much free labor he wouldn't have been trying to hire College Republican white supremacist goons for the last weekend. Joe hired as many as 4000 people for the end of the campaign. He started paying $60 a day and by last weekend some of them were getting $150. Even at the lower rate that means that Joe was burning through almost a quarter of a million dollars a day for ground team salaries.

>>Union supporters...who as far as I know have not withdrawn their support<<

They don't have to withdraw it. The CT union leaders carefully endorsed Joe for the primary only; as far as I know none committed to follow Joe after that.

[SaveElmer]

55. We'll have to see how much he spent...

But I find it very difficult to believe he is going to have any serious money woes...like I said he only needs to go two months...

I still do not understand the efficacy of discounting his strength...

Either I am wrong and we overprepared...hardly a big deal

or

I am right and we are prepared...

Ignore the possibility and find out he is not as weak as you think and you get caught with your pants down...

Lieberman lost to Lamont because he underestimated him...I think it is foolish for us to do that now with Lieberman!

[LuckyLib]

39. Joe gets to keep the POS website, and the $15 monthly bill.

[UTUSN]

44. Your grasp of campaign mechanics is ASTOUNDING. Please

be the campaign manager for our next Dem presidential nominee!!!1

[VolcanoJen]

45. Sometimes, I just really think we over-complicate things.

We as Democrats often take the worst-possible-scenario approach and run campaigns with that kind of outlook.

Sometimes things are far simpler than they initially appear. The way to beat Lieberman is to starve him of cash. The best way to show that is to flood Lamont with money, and quickly.

[Kukesa]

67. I'll second that nomination. nt

[H2O Man]

46. Great post.

Nominated, of course.

It is beginning to look like the only significant backing Joe will get is from the national republican machine. They are apparently "suggesting" that the state organization consider assisting Lieberman. That will create tension, as the republicans sincerely but erroneously believe they have a chance to take a senate seat.

More, as it becomes known that Joe's financial backing is through the graces of Rove, he will become more of a disgrace among even conservative democrats, and he will be exposed to the state's numerous independents as a puppet.

One of the fascinating aspects in my opinion is Lieberman's potential for self-destruction, much in the manner of the Nixon shortly after the 1960 election. When Tricky Dick was rejected in his own state in his next attempt at office, we were treated to the infamous "you won't have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore."

Lieberman exhibits some personality flaws that have not really surfaced in a more meaningful way publicly, because he never faced the stress of such humiliating rejection. He is going to begin to remind more of the public of a guy acting like a jerk when going through a nasty divorce. Of course, in his case, it will not be an act.

I do not think Lieberman will be a problem for the democrats at the state or national level. I think he has the potential to make himself into a historic laughing stock. But the joke may be on the republicans who are adopting him as one of their own.

[RiverStone]

47. Save Joe from Himself!

Imagine if every Democrat that lost a primary said, "I will not let these results stand." Simply, Joe has been morphed by 18 years in a position of power. He's lost touch with the core values of the Democratic party as his selfish next step can be best defined as coming from a place of arrogance. By attempting to run as an Independent, he blurs the lines for whatever he used to stand for. One good thing from all this will be clarity. The Democratic Party does stand for something unique and Joe's lame attempt to keep senatorial letterhead will serve to define in contrast who we really are. Best wishes to Ed Lamont!

[VolcanoJen]

49. Welcome to DU!

:bounce: :toast: :toast: :bounce:

[ComerPerro]

48. He will get funding from the right. Like the greens.

and then he will run and he will lose.

But he doesn't care.

Because Lamont will lose, too, because Lieberman will split the vote just enough.

And once he hands the Republicans his Senate seat, he can scold and blame the "fringe left" and then make millions doing so in books, speeches, and appearances on Faux News.

[VolcanoJen]

50. That's a worse-case-scenario view, though

Connecticut is one of the bluest states in America. In July, Connecticut polled at 31% approval for Bush. The only states polling lower are California and Delaware.

This is such a unique race, and if we were talking about a midwestern or western state, I'd probably throw the advantage to Lieberman even as an independent. But in a state that unhappy with the status quo, I don't see Lieberman (who represents the status quo, even though he's been rejected once already) pulling away enough votes from Lamont to have Connecticut elect that loser Schlesinger. I'm sorry. It just doesn't add up.

It's clear that in Connecticut, the momentum has swung in favor of change. Joe represents nothing but more of the same... and his pathetic attempt to hang onto his power even in the face of voter rejection just won't hold up. Joe's in a box. And even if he hangs on, we'll crush him.

This is Connecticut we're talking about.

[ComerPerro]

51. I listened to Air America for the first time the other day

and heard discussion about Lamont in the general election.

Someone mentioned that, of those polled who voted Lamont, 65% were against Lieberman, while only 35% were voting for Lamont because they like them.

The guest said that this could be trouble for Lamont because he needs to get rep as himself, not just the anti-Lieberman candidate.

But, whether that is accurate or not, I think the clear opposition to Lieberman could translate directly to success for Lamont in November. After all, these anti-Lieberman people wanted a different person in the Senate, and they were most likely against Lieberman because he was a Republican sellout.

So the question remains: Will these 65% who voted for Lamont to vote against Lieberman follow through and vote for him in November?

I believe so, if they bothered to vote in a primary they will vote in November.


And, even if Lamont wins (he should be able to unless JoMentum starts ramping up attacks), Lieberman will enjoy wealth and success on RW talk radio, RW news channels, and when he eventually publishes his book talking about how he was pushed out by the radical, extreme left.


Oh crap, the dog's barking. Think he needs to go out....

[VolcanoJen]

52. That's exactly right...

... Joe's future career move is taking a right onto Zell Miller Lane. But he's not going to remain in the Senate.

And you know, those guys on the radio aren't necessarily the smartest cats in the room. Again, they take such a doom-and-gloom view (we beat ourselves up so much as Dems), and they completely over-complicate the Lamont/Lieberman "race." I mean, they say that Lamont has to run as himself and not the "anti-Lieberman" candidate? Really? Isn't this "race" just a redux of Lamont-Lieberman? Schlesinger isn't even in the hunt.

Lieberman will drop out. Once he starts polling in the 20's (next week?), the money dries up and he's dunzo.

[ComerPerro]

53. Its all true, even the part about my dog.,

[D23MIURG23]

56. Joe probably is done as you say

However this isn't the time for the Lamont campaign to sit on their hands either. Lamont won the primary by being anti-Lieberman, but now that Lamont is the front runner, he will need to sell his own merits to non-Dems. Lieberman has to quit campaigning until his signatures are validated. If Lamont can use this time to build himself up as a favorable candidate he will put Lieberman out of the race. Lamont is no radical and I really believe that he will sell well with unaffiliated voters once they get a feel for him. Once this starts to happen Joe will only be able to use his limited campaign machinery to attack, and look like that much more of an entitled, ungracious looser.

[VolcanoJen]

58. Who said anything about the Lamont campaign sitting on their hands?

Full steam ahead... that's my argument.

Ned Lamont won an "anti-Lieberman" campaign once, and I'm confident he can do it twice. At this point, Lieberman is his only viable opponent, and I don't even think he's that viable.

This is all about money. Send early, send often. Starve Lieberman of funds, freeze him out in the wilderness, and campaign like hell.

[D23MIURG23]

60. I'm just making the point

I don't actually think that the Lamont campaign will sit on their hands. Defeating an established incumbent in a primary is a very difficult feat. Given that they have already accomplished it, I think they will have less trouble in this leg of the race.

[TRRepublican]

59. What you forget is why many people need money for ...

Several of those reasons are not important in this race:

1. You need money for name recognition. If you are new to the level of politcs, you need money simply to get people to recognize your name. Lieberman as a 3 term Senator has about a 95+% name recognition within the state, especially among the independents, which is where the race will be decided. I suspect that Lamont may be less than 80% among independents.

2. You need money if you are not the incumbant. Incumbants, like Lieberman, naturally are regularly in the news simply because of their jobs; they get a lot of free press if they do thing well in a media way. Others need quite a bit of money just to offset this. That is why about 98% of house races are won by the incumbant. Senate is somewhat lower, but still heavily tilted that way.

3. To date, this race (in the minds of many) is a one issue race. Either you indicate that it is on the issue of Iraq (and can be categorized as "cut & run" by the pubs) or a referendum on Bush (as Lamont supporters are trying to characterize it). Either way, most of the voters probably have made up their minds on this and about the only real question is how many Lieberman Dems Lamont will convince to cross over; I really do not think very many of the indies or pubs will change their minds. I have not seen many polls that show a lot of undecided left. It is far more costly to change the minds of those who are fairly well committed, which says Lamont has a lot of work to do, and all Lieberman has to do is hold on to most of the people he already has.

Basically, I believe Lamont will have to outspend Lieberman by 3 or 5 to 1 over the next 3 months. Since I suspect that Lieberman has about $1M left (half of his last balance reported), and I suspect he can probably get and raise at least that much from his former hard-core supporters, it means that Lamont has to raise and spend at least $5-10M. This is doable, but what it also means is that certain other races (Florida, Rhode Island, ...) could get starved. The pubs could be laughing all the way, because Lieberman would force money that would go to other races that might take the Senate away from them will flow to this race.

As for the fact that an "indie" cannot win, I will simply mention the name Jim Jeffords, who is registered as an independent. He kept the bulk of his supporters when he left the pubs, and he somehow continues to get money despite not being affiliated with either major party.

I still think this race will go Lieberman 45, Lamont 35, and the pub at 20.

[VolcanoJen]

62. Nice job at completely failing to understand Two-Party Politics...

... and the Party Infrastructure.

Lieberman is an incumbent in the wilderness. He left the two-party system. Where does the money come from?

While you simply mention the name Jim Jeffords, I'll simply remind you that he switched parties after winning reelection as a Republican. He hasn't run for reelection yet, or since, and he won't, seeing as how he's retiring at the end of this Senate term. Nice try, though.

Please cite the last time an incumbent senator lost his primary, and subsequently sucessfully ran as an independent.

Lamont will raise $6 million pretty quickly. Have you ever heard of the DSCC? The DNC? Planned Parenthood? The AFL/CIO? The National Education Association? MoveOn?

You need a financial structure to raise funds. There is no independent party.

Your username is... interesting.

EDIT: Corrected my Dan Quayle spelinng

[D23MIURG23]

66. The point that worries me

Is the issue of money, and the fact that the party will now have to spend more in CT to defeat someone formerly of their own party. I believe that Lamont will carry this contest regardless, but it burns me up that we have to spend money fighting Joe's vanity party, when we have a number of really critical fights against self-proclaimed repubs in other states. Speaking of which, what is with your user name?

[B Calm]

61. Why didn't he file as a republican?

[Recursion]

64. He still has 3 million from the primary doesn't he?

That can go a long way.

[Quixote1818]

68. The "Sore Loserman" tag is already sticking. I think people are starting

to get fed up with him and see that he is just concerned with Joe and no one else. As they said on the daily show: The people of CT don't want to go out with you any more Joe, GET IT???? Now quit stalking them!

[williesgirl]

69. Per WP, & and KKKarl called Wed w/their support and $s - which

leaves the question - how will the Repuke actual candidate feel about that? Other pukes?

[VolcanoJen]

70. I really do wonder what Connecticut Republicans must have thought...

... when Ken Mehlman refused to endorse Schlesinger when directly questioned by Chris Matthews yesterday. He had no difficulty traveling to Ohio afterward to wholeheartedly endorse another of his Senate candidates, Mike DeWine, later yesterday evening.

I'm starting to think there's a whole new Republican play emerging... throw Lieberman under the bus while using him to your advantage on a national level. Mehlman doesn't really care if the seat goes to Lamont or Lieberman. He always knew it would end up Dem. He's certainly not going to throw cash to Lieberman when he's got a real loyalist like Rick Santorum to defend in Pennsylvania.

But he'll talk a lot about Lieberman if it serves him. He wants to attack the unity of the Democratic party as part of his '06 theme. He knows good and well that Lieberman won't last in this race. But the fact that he's in it still plays into Mehlman's strategy to attack the Democrats on national security... at least for this week, and maybe next.

Mehlman will ride it out as long as he can. He's got nothing to lose by doing so, and everything to gain. But one thing's for sure... he could give a crap about supporting Lieberman in a practical (financial) way that would benefit Lieberman. He doesn't have to, and still, he benefits.