ATTENTION: All who are arguing that Lamont's win is bad news...

[WilliamPitt]

...please take a moment and read. I believe this assessment to be spot-on.

===

The road signs to Ned Lamont's victory were readable as early as 2000, when Lieberman insisted on running again for the Senate even after his nomination as vice president, which, had Gore won, would have guaranteed that conservative, corrupt Republican John Rowland would nominate Lieberman's successor. Connecticut Democrats rejected home-state presidential candidate Lieberman by a massive margin in the 2004 presidential primary, and by this year--with his support for Alberto Gonzales and Samuel Alito, by flirtatiously campaigning to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as the Bush Administration's Defense Secretary, with his mounting the barricades on behalf of expansive presential power--Lieberman's political capital in his home state was virtually exhausted. Politicians supported him this year out of duty, but even in old Lieberman strongholds--his home city of New Haven, and working-class Bridgeport--voters could muster little enthusiasm. Connecticut, divided between the richest suburbs and some of the poorest cities in the country, is showing signs of deep change in how it does political business: in a bellwether gubernatorial primary that could mean as much to the future of Connecticut as the Lieberman-Lamont contest, Democrats endorsed New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, the son of a police officer and a fighting progressive who combines unwavering passion for social justice with a cool competence at finding common ground between middle-class and poor, cities and suburbs.

Does Lieberman have the strength to win as an independent? Don't be deceived by the close final numbers in the Lieberman-Lamont primary. Lamont ran a consistent eight points or more ahead in most of the state, from affluent suburbs in Fairfield County to devastated mill towns in the state's northeast. Lieberman finally pulled within striking distance of Lamont only because a handful of municipal Democratic organizations in the old Naugatuck Valley industrial zone, the last remnants of old-line party hacks, pulled out the stops on primary day. Those ghosts of the old Bailey machine won't be available to Lieberman in the general election. Far from taking comfort in Connecticut's base of unaffiliated voters, Lieberman should shudder: 11,000 of them switched into the Democratic Party for the August primary, and the evidence would suggest they voted against him.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060814/shapiro

[fooj]

1. IMO, the Naugatuck Valley industrial zone isn't the ONLY reason

that he pulled within striking distance. It was all by design.

[enigmatic]

2. I'm not worried

Holy Joe is going to be going it alone, especially now that the Democratic Leadership is lining up behind Lamont. And once the stench of Rove covers him, he'll be finished.

I say he drops out before Labor Day...

[NanceGreggs]

11. My prediction as well ...

... the writing on the wall will be too indelibly etched for even Joe to ignore it.

And then will come the REAL 'concession' speech as he 'bows out for the good of the Party' -- months too late for anyone to notice, or care.

[eleny]

12. I agree

Last night was him holding to his pledge to run as an Indie. But the writing started to appear on the wall when Hillary and Bayh immediately voiced their support. Hillary with a $5k pledge. Today couldn't have been too bright a day knowing that soon after Joe filed his papers, Dodd and the Dem leadership in CT were on C-Span turning Joe into past tense.

[femrap]

15. Yep, his ego is what is talking now.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if he switches parties.

[bleever]

3. The times

they are a changin'.

K&R.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

4. OK.....So We Made A Statement? Now What?

Was anything really accomplished yesterday? Sure, a message was sent by the Dems in Connecticut. But did Lamont really win anything? His main competition yesterday is STILL his main competition in November. He won nothing, except the party nomination.

I'm not belittling the accomplishment or it's significance, but the fact ol' Joe is going on, and will more or less be running as a Repub, for all intents and purposes, it puts Lamont back at square 1. Clearly if Lieberman gets a percentage of votes from Dems, and also has the "unspoken" backing from the right, then I don't think Lamont stands as great a chance as if he were running straight-up against the "repub nominee."

The bottom line is that even when the progressive Dems win, they still lose. The forces against Lamont are tremendous, and the liberal wing of the party has won absolutely nothing.

His unmitigated will to stay in power, proves to me that he is not from our side, and never will be. He doesn't care about the party or it's members, only about himself and his friends across the aisle.

[Exultant Democracy]

9. Where do you find the pro-war pro-bush votes he needs in CT?

I know in the last Quinnipiac poll I saw war support was down to about 60% for republicans in CT! The independents in CT are firmly anti-war and anti-bush. So where are the votes? Lamont will win a majority of Dems, who make up the majority of voters, he will also pick up more independents the Traitor Joe so even if Joe slightly edges out Joe with the republican vote he is still done.

[mhatrw]

18. 68% of ALL CT residents disapprove of Bush.

That leaves 32% for Joe & his fellow Republican to split.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

19. What About The Other 32%?????

That 32%, plus a few percent from Dems still willing to support him, and he's got more than enough to win in a 3-way race.

[KaptBunnyPants]

21. The Republican votes come out of that 32%.

So no, that's not enough to carry Lieberman to victory. Not even close - if he can't convince anti-war Independents and Democrats to support him despite his primary loss and stance on the most important issue of the day, he's done.

[Mr_Spock]

22. That's the backwash

:P

Imagine Lieberman getting 100% of the pro-Bush voters and the Republican candidate getting none!!

[Exultant Democracy]

5. Traitor Joe is about to go. This assessment is spot-on.

i have been saying this for a while, that win last night was effectively a blow out when it comes down to it. Good find.

[WiseButAngrySara]

6. Joe had the support of the Democratic Party prior to the primaries. He

doesn't now. I predict Lamont will win easily, unless there are major positive changes in the IW situation between now and then. This is so improbable as to seem sadly ludicrous.

[thoughtanarchist]

7. If this description of sentiment on the ground in CT is accurate,

I feel much better.

Good catch.

:patriot:

[burythehatchet]

8. happy to be 5th

[dpbrown]

10. Great analysis!

Lieberman is the wrong man at the wrong time to be kissing up to Bush.

[Tom Joad]

13. If Stupid Joe stays in, it will take votes from the *Republicans* and

for probably the first time in a hundred years or so, a Republican candidate will hardly get any votes, may end up down there in the lower teens. The republican may get less votes than the Green Party.
How often does a major party get so marginilized?

I think Joe's running will do more harm to the Republican party than the Democratic Party.

[Nothing Without Hope]

14. The last 3 sentences of this essay are especially powerful:

"Lieberman always claimed he could define the center by dodging between unions and environmentalists on one side, and privatizers and religious conservatives on the other. That dodge, after thirty years, left not a center but a political hollow man, devoid of compass, incapable of confronting a catastrophe in Iraq recognized widely by the Connecticut public. He was defeated by a reformer who insists that politics should stand for something after all."

Another DU thread on this superb essay:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1863745
thread title (8-9-06 General Discussion): Say Goodnight, Joe (The Nation)

[Little Star]

16. If Big Dawg couldn't help him, he's done! n/t

[cascadiance]

17. I wonder if corporate and Republican machines will discourage Joe...

Perhaps, if things start looking pretty bad for Joe in the numbers race a month from now, perhaps the corporate money machine along with the Republicans might see having Joe run again AND getting defeated soundly will actually do more damage than if he didn't run at all in November, and they might try to isolate him too, kind of like the Republicans are seeing the writing on the wall with Katherine Harris, who could prove to be an equal embarrassment to them later too.

Just like many here were challenging us to support Joe if he won the primary, we should be hitting HARD now those Dems that supported Lieberman earlier and talk about how they should stay good Democrats and vote for the nominee come Fall, so that the party keeps the Senator slot, and one more notch to gain control of the Senate and all of its committees. If we push hard on this as well as make it look in numbers like Lieberman will embarass both the corporate money machine that fuels the DLC as well as the Republicans, then everyone will try to persuade Joe to back out, and he'll be very hard pressed not to do so.

With Lieberman out of the race, Lamont should win easily.



Muadib! Muadib!

[Scout1071]

20. Wow. Those 11,000 Indies that switched made all the difference.

Great effort CT. An inspiration for us all.