Is it possible for Lamont to win? How?

[CoffeeCat]

I fully support Lamont and I will contribute to his campaign--even though
I don't reside in his state.

I am wondering how he can pull this off, with Lieberman splitting the Dem vote.

Doesn't Lieberman's move almost guarantee a Republican victory?

I don't mean to be a naysayer. I want Lamont to win. I'd like to know how
it will be possible. I hope Lamont has a stellar campaign strategist.

[SteppingRazor]

1. Actually, every poll of a three-way race has the GOP candidate in third...

place.

[jsamuel]

2. look at the polls, it looks like Lamont will win with R in 3rd place

[grytpype]

3. Don't worry.

Rasmussen did a poll a couple of weeks ago showing that in a 3-way race, Lamont tied Loserman at 40%. Now that Lamont is the candidate, his support will go up and Loserman's will go down. The Repug is in the teens and can't win in Connecticut. Latest word is Rove is going to engineer an exit by the Repug right before the election so all the Repugs can vote for Loserman. I still think he loses again in that scenerio.

So don't worry.

[LA lady]

4. I read this earlier

To win the Senate race, Lamont needs either a) more than 20 percent of Lieberman's supporters to abandon him and switch to Lamont b) more than 45 percent of unaffiliated voters to support him or c) less than 11 percent of Republicans to vote for Lieberman. I suppose yesterday's results show that things can change quickly, but right now those scenarios look awfully unlikely.

[fishwax]

24. where does that come from?

I'm not sure why it's suggested that if more than 20 percent of Lieberman's supporters go to Lamont, he will win. I'm also not sure why that would be considered unlikely.

[bowens43]

5. the polls show the republican with about 13%

in a three way split. It's going to Joe or Lamont.

[bkcc]

6. One thing's for sure....

It's going to be an uphill battle if Joe "Massive Ego" Lieberman has his way. I can't believe that he's going to run as an independent. So much for party loyalty. (Oh wait. He never had that to begin with.)

[americanstranger]

7. Lieberman's not going to split the Dem vote.

He seems intent upon running his mouth about how Democrats aren't as smart as he is, how they're not big tough macho warmongering men like he is, that he won't let the voters of Connecticut's decision stand, bitching about Jackson and Sharpton on right-wing radio...

CT Dems are gonna get real tired of being called stupid, real fast. I'd be surprised if Joe-Nertia was still in the race come Labor Day.

Unless he runs on the Republican ticket, which is an outside possibility.

Worry not - the Dem machine will line up behind Ned, Ned will coolly and calmly state his positions while Joe-Nertia tries to wring every mile out of his web site being 'hacked' and the big, mean bloggers...

It ain't gonna fly. Joe's mouth is Ned's best weapon.

- as

[wyldwolf]

8. sticky situation, huh?

I don't believe enough Republican voters will abandon their guy for Lieberman. I also believe a decent percentage of Dems who voted for Lieberman will vote for Lamont in the general. With those two factors in play, I still see the Nov. election being about what it was last night in terms of percentages. That leaves an interesting third factor: Will Independents (of which there are a lot in CT) break for Lamont or Lieberman?

[One_Life_To_Give]

9. Won't split the Dem vote

At least not exclusivly. Many reps in CT will be supporting Joe. So it's possible that Joe running independent will help get Ned elected. Unless the repubs find a way to get their candidate to drop out.

[mhatrw]

10. Lamont 38%, Lieberman 34%, Republican 27%

Why is this hard to envision?

Lieberman is a loser and a weiner.

[Rainscents]

11. You also have to remember...

R votes will be slit too. Don't just focus on democrat votes. I believe, more and more Dem votes will vote for Lamont, however, it's the Republican votes, LIEberman have to worry about, which, I doubt, he'll more then 50%. Do the math, Conn is made up 60% Dems and maybe 30% republicans and 10% Ind.

[WI_DEM]

12. He can win it, but don't write off Lieberman

If Lieberman can get a quarter of the die-hard dem vote, do well with GOP and Independent voters he can still pull it off.

Ned needs to position himself as the only one not supporting the war in the race and appeal to Independents and if he can win a majority of them and most democrats he can win in a three man race.

[Idioteque]

13. Lamont has a good chance in a three way race.

As was stated earlier, a poll of a three way race had Lamont and Lieberman tied with 40% and the Repub in the teens.

It is likely that Lamont's primary victory will drive some Dems from the Lieberman camp, especially now that the Democratic leadership is endorsing Lamont.

Also the Republican governor Jodi Rell is very popular. If her coattails help increase the vote for the Republican candidate, he will likely get votes that would have gone to Joe.

Remember, more Repubicans approve of Lieberman than Democrats. While Lieberman will have some Democratic support, the GOP vote will be split.

[Balbus]

14. The Republican is a big-time loser.

I know, you can say that about most Republicans, but this one is especially so. Lamont will win running away.

[jbonkowski]

15. You're making some assumptions

You're assuming that all Democrats who voted for Lieberman in the primary will vote for him again as an Independent. Don't you think some of those Dems will continue to vote Dem?

Its a three way race, but those votes don't split out three way. The Repub is way behind.

You're assuming that (genuine) Independents will vote heavily for Lieberman. With 60% nationally opposing the war, being pro-war doesn't get you a whole lot of Independent voters. I don't know if local sentiment about the war has similar numbers.

jim

[CoffeeCat]

These responses...

...make sense and paint an optimistic picture for Lamont.

My guess is that there are enough Independents who are sick of Bush and disagree with the war. There are many Republicans who feel that way. It's likely that Independents will break for Lamont.

If Lamont runs a great campaign--against the war, against BushCo and for common-sense, middle-class issues that will appeal to Independents/moderates (minimum wage, fixing FEMA, supporting education, ending tax breaks for yacht owners), Lamont has an excellent chance.

There's also the personality factor. Lamont comes off as very likable. He's charming and intelligent--but he has that "guy-next-door" quality. If he campaigns like a dog and stops at every coffee house and pizza joint in CT--that will help him immensely. Furthermore, Americans are sick of politicians and the corruption, in general. Being a newbie helps Lamont because Americans want change in Congress, in general.

If Lamont can wow voters with his personality--that will also stave off the ridiculous personal attacks that we know will come from Lieberman. Now that Rove is in the picture--we can expect all kinds of inventive evil.

Thanks for the terrific insight in the posts...I feel better now.

Go Lamont!

[gratuitous]

16. A little patience, if you please

Here's how I see it:

Six months ago, Lieberman was bullet-proof. Even as little as two months ago, he had a 15 or 20 point lead in the polls. Yesterday, he was denied his party's nomination.

Now, in the immediate aftermath of a shocking loss, Lieberman is making a lot of brave noises about continuing on through the general election. But what happens as time passes?

First, the stink of loserdom is on Lieberman, and perceptions count very heavily with the voters. In hypothetical match-ups before the primary, no one had won or lost anything, and it's not surprising to see a lot of support for Lieberman in a three-way race. After all, he pulled 48% support from his own party.

But now the hypothetical has become reality, and the perceptions begin to work against Lieberman. He lost his party's primary, and that will be the first consideration for any voter in Connecticut. A lot of Lieberman voters will support the party rather than the candidate, even if it takes them a few days or a few weeks to reach that conclusion.

Lieberman will also be bereft of party support. Bill Clinton will not be in Connecticut to make speeches on Joe's behalf between now and November. The DSCC will not be raising money for Lieberman. He will truly be running an "independent" campaign, and if the primary race is any indication, Lieberman doesn't run a campaign on his own very well. He is also unlikely to attract any big name campaign consultants no matter how much he offers them; that whole "loser" perception again.

As for the Republican candidate, I don't think Mr. Schlesinger is a serious rival to anyone in Connecticut.

[CoffeeCat]

17. Thanks for your comments...

Excellent points.

You are right about the "stink of loserdom." That could be a major factor in any Lieberman run, unraveling.

Reid and Schumer just came out for Lamont. If the vast majority of Dems come out for Lamont--this will make Joe look like an even bigger loser. That doesn't bode well for any "Joementum."

Watching your former Senators campaign for your opponent won't be a joyful experience for Joe.

I haven't heard one currently elected politician say they stand with Joe. I think Joe has rec'd a great deal of support from his colleagues--during the primary.

However, that support will probably evaporate. Joe hasn't had to exist in that lonely scenario, and he just might drop out. Wishful thinking, I know. However, it's possible.

[gratuitous]

19. I don't think Lieberman's dumb

And as the next couple of weeks pass, and he gets a real good look at the handwriting on the wall, he's gonna realize that his mene mene tekel has been upharsined (reference to the Book of Daniel), and he'll quietly end his independent run. Or he might hang in, run a token campaign with his wife or some other favorite as his campaign manager, and empty his campaign millions into their pockets. It's kind of a weaselly thing to do, but totally legal.

[skipos]

18. Why do so many people ignore the Rasmussen poll

that had Joe 40%, Ned 40% and Alan 13%??????

And that was before Joe was branded a loser.

[VolcanoJen]

20. The "polls" are hypothetical. Independents don't win.

Maybe now, polls shows a tight three-way race. But such thought is hypothetical... independents just don't win these kinds of elections.

There's no mechanism for an independent bid by Joe. Do you realize how much it costs to run a Senate campaign? Lamont gets all the Dem money, because parties take care of their own. Lamont gets the organization, the GOTV machine, the phone banks, the Dem Senate Leadership, the best of the best to serve as surrogate talking heads to support him. Cream of the crop, all the big names. Lamont gets the enormous ad buys that win elections in the closing weeks. He also gets the blogs, and I don't think anyone will ever underestimate their impact again. All in all, The Party is a big, powerful, beautiful machine.

What does Joe get? Who lines up behind him? There is no Independent Party. He's on his own. He has to find his own money, and he has to find A LOT of it. How the hell is he going to pull that off? Is he going to knock on doors himself? I imagine Joe still has some Democrats left on his campaign staff, and they're going to leave him, because they don't want to get blackballed by the party forever. All those fools standing behind him on that stage last night? They're gone next week. Joe is dunzo.

It's going to take a few weeks, but he's going to wake up and smell the reality. He can't go it alone. And Rove might want to reach out to him and help him, but in the end, Karl Rove is a Party Man, and he's not going to crap all over the GOP because he's bitter about losing his favorite Democrat.

Joe won't run. He can't. It's impossible, and if we can't see that today, don't worry. It'll become crystal clear in the coming weeks.

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. He needs to convince independent voters that he is the best candidate

[warrens]

22. I think Lieberman will win

The Repukes know their guy hasn't got a chance, so a lot will vote for Joe. Since they basically split the Dem vote, unless something really unexpected (like Joe bowing out) happens, I think he'll pull it off. But I think the message has been delivered: no more cooperation with fascist thugs. At all.

[Ganja Ninja]

23. Joe's not guaranteed every Republican vote.

Lamont might even get more Republican votes than Joe. And Joe's move to run against the Democratic party might cost him votes from the Democrats he otherwise would have gotten in the primary.
The Republican isn't expected to be a factor.

[wiggs]

25. Lamont has the edge

While I think Lamont and his supporters should continue to campaign hard as underdogs, I think it's likely that Lamont will take the senate seat for the following reasons:

-Joe will get a lot of pressure from dems to drop out, making the question moot if he does drop

-The power and money of the DLC and dem infrastructure will get behind Lamont. Where will Lieberman get the money to run? He lost even while outspending Lamont 2:1. Will he have the same money advantage next time? Doubt it

-Will corporate money flow to Lieberman? If so, that should be a dem talking point making the need for replacement even more clear

-Joe really isn't that attractive to either party. Will many republicans vote for him over their own guy?

-I doubt that the same 48% of dems that voted for him this time will stick with a losing, independent Lieberman next time. He will lose many more dems than republicans he will pick up, especially if Hannity, OReilley, Frist, Gingrich, etc try to get republicans to vote for Lieberman

-I don't think things are going to get better in Iraq and the whole ME by next election. This reflects badly on Lieberman and the republican candidate

-Over the next three months, the need for change in every policy area will only become clearer

-Lieberman's ex-running mate, Gore, will endorse Lamont

-Lieberman can't help himself in the senate right now...his more liberal leaning votes will be seen as pandering and his more conservative votes will solidify voters' disdain

-The gloves are now off and pundits, writers, liberal dems can feel free to criticize his past stances since they know he is not on the same team anymore

-This loss, combined with a 2000 loss, brands him a loser. That will be hard to shake.

-Simply and most importantly: HE IS ON THE WRONG SIDE OF MANY ISSUES and a strong candidate who is not afraid to speak should easily be able to win on the issues.

[wiggs]

26. And one more thing...

-Lieberman will be offered some serious cash to go to work for Carlyse Group or Exxon or General Electric.

[WilliamPitt]

27. First of all, forget the GOP candidate

Now imagine Lieberman doing what he'll have to do to win after abandoning his party. He will be reaching out to the right - he started last night, and ABC News reported today that Karl Rove has offered the help of the White House - and accepting Republican money.

Imagine how much fun Lamont (and we) will have with these revelations.

I'm really not all that worried.

[ThomWV]

28. I Don't See How Lamont Could Lose

Let us say that some Republicans voted for Joe
Let us say that some Democrats voted for Joe
In total they equaled less than half the vote
So we must say that more than half of the Democrats voted for Ned
In the election assume Republicans vote for a Republican.
So less than half of Democrats minus some Republicans is the vote Joe can expect. That leaves Ned with over half of Democrats.