Prediction - Castro will "die" shortly after the 13th

[Freedom_Aflaim]

Of course I think he's already dead, but they are waiting till after the 13th to announce time of death.

One they need to come up with a plan to maintain order in Cuba once the announcement is made. Most of all Cuba knows nothing of life outside of a Castro dictatorship. The potential for chaos is very real.

Two, the 13th is castro 80th birthday, and it would be unfortunate for Castro to perish just short of reaching such a milestone. (Im reminded of my wifes grandmother who always spoke of wanting to reach 90, and she died only a few days after reaching that goal)

My guess is the 14th.

[everythingsxen]

1. Why can't he...

just be alive? I mean, from what I have seen he seems very alive to me...

[Freedom_Aflaim]

2. Maybe he is

But I suspect that although Cuba is very poor, they have enough budget for a few polaroids to eliminate speculation such as mine.

[Yupster]

3. And I don't see chaos either

I think Raul will transition just as fine as any other stable monarchy.

He's been in charge of the army for 47 years and has made sure the top generals have every reason to support him. When tourism took off in the 90's, Raul put his top army guys in charge of the hotels and resorts so their supply of hard currency depends on Raul and a smooth transition of power.

[Freedom_Aflaim]

4. Assuming no outside intervention

I imagine that with 47 years experience of keeping his thumb on Cuba, you're proably right in that he'll be able to keep the people on the straight and narrow.

Ordinarily, I suspect that you are right. The dictatorship will ensure that chaos is eliminated quickly (and quietly)

However what is a wild card, is meddling by the Bush and the CIA. The CIA has been waiting decades for a disruption in power in Cuba to use as leverage.


Frankly, Id prefer to see the Cuban folks continue to live in peace and then adopt any system they choose peacefully (including of course supporting Raul). It would be ashame if things broke out in civil war..ESPECIALLY if the US instigated it.

I don't trust the Bush however, to leave good enough alone and let the Cuba people choose as they see fit.

[johnfunk]

5. That means he won't miss...

... the season finale of Hell's Kitchen on FOX! But he will miss Snakes on a Plane, poor guy!

[Pierre.Suave]

6. DAMN

now theres a reason to stay alive just a bit longer...

[Freedom_Aflaim]

7. Not to mention how Lost ends !

:)