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Rice sees an 'opportunity' for a 'New Middle East' in the Lebanon crisis

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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:33 AM
Original message
Rice sees an 'opportunity' for a 'New Middle East' in the Lebanon crisis
Edited on Mon Aug-07-06 10:45 AM by bigtree
August 7, 2006

U.S Secretary of State Condi Rice, when questioned on MTP yesterday, expanded on the president's assertion that the Middle East conflict presented a "moment of opportunity." Rice told Russert that she sees "opportunity in crisis."

"I would think that if people look back on the history of how things have changed," she said, "they will recognize that opportunity very often comes out of crisis."

Rice said at the beginning of the conflict that she wants to shape a 'new Middle East' out of the Lebanon disaster. The call for a "New Middle East" only confirms the fears of those in the region that the U.S. goal all along was to weaken Arab influence and expand Israel's. Together with this notion of an opportunity to be had out of the suffering and devastation, the U.S. seems to be positioning itself to take advantage of Israel's assault and invasion of Lebanon in which they were seen as giving their ally a 'green light' to continue their bloody airstrikes by their refusal to call for an immediate cease-fire, and by waiting so long to travel to the region as Israel's reprisals slaughtered hundreds of innocent Lebanese civilians.

Rather than just focusing on the prosecution of Hizbollah, Rice (and the U.S.) will now be seen as muckraking for regime change with their support of Israel's devastating assault on Lebanese territory and infrastructure. This, I predict will cause more in Lebanon to view the routing of Hizbollah as a pretext to Israeli expansion backed by the U.S.

For all of those who maintain that there's no linkage between Israel's actions and the U.S., Rice's proclamation of a "New Middle East" will eliminate any argument they may have used to mollify the other Arab interests in the region who have expressed alarm at the scope and breadth of the military campaign. Clearly, the U.S. will now be seen as an integral part of any action Israel undertakes. That's not going to make them any more amenable to any agreement to dismantle the militarized organization. It will drive the Lebanese and others to favor or tolerate those who would stand up to Israel and the U.S., like these splinter groups are doing; like Syria has the capacity to do.

As the Bush regime calls for a "New Middle East", while, at the same time, encouraging and supporting Israel's invasion of Lebanon, they provoke the 'old' Mideast to new and more pernicious means of defense against U.S. imperialism in the part of the world they call home.

"Anyone who wants to argue that the Middle East that has been left behind was one that was stable . . ." Rice argued on MTP, ". . . I think they’ll have to make an argument that that was a good Middle East that should have been left untouched."

Yet, one of our partners in the region, Saudi Arabia, countered Rice's call for a "new Mideast" with a call for the restoration of the old. Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said, "We would like to return to the old Middle East as we did not see anything in the new Middle East apart from more problems." Saud cited the Qana massacre that claimed the lives of 62 people, mostly women and children, as an tragedy which should have compelled the world to call for an immediate cease-fire.

"The Middle East is not an uninhabited area," he argued, "it has people, governments and our destiny is determined after God’s will by its people."

"Yes," Rice told Russert, "it is a time of tremendous turbulence in the Middle East, it’s a time of change in the Middle East, and the United States has an obligation to—now to try and, on the basis of the work that has been done, construct and help those in the Middle East construct a better Middle East, there’s no doubt about that . . . The notion that there is not opportunity within crisis is ahistorical."

Ahistorical? I don't know about that. But, I do know that folks should feel mighty suspicious when the US comes to give a hand when they're down, with the Bush regime looking to make a U.S. conceived 'opportunity' out of their misfortune.

Russert confronted Rice with the criticism of former Bush administration official, Richard Haass, who he said, laughed at the president’s public optimism. "An opportunity?" Russert quoted Haass as saying, "If this is an opportunity, what’s Iraq? A once-in-a-lifetime chance?’”

"You know, Tim," Rice countered, "the Chinese have a character for crisis. It’s weiji—danger and opportunity. I think they have it right. Every crisis has within it danger, but every crisis also has within it opportunity. And this president is determined to seize opportunities, to bring about a different kind of Middle East"

The Chinese do have such a character, but Rice misinterprets the meaning of the blended Chinese 'letters'. The word, 'weiji' is made up of two characters, “wei” and “ji.” Although “wei” does mean danger, “ji” doesn’t necessarily mean “opportunity. The `ji’ of `weiji,’ is translated as an incipient moment; a moment of change. Simply put, weiji describes a moment of danger; something which doesn't seem to be fully appreciated by Rice and the rest of the Bush regime. All they see is an opportunity to exploit the crisis to fit their mold and ambition to expand America's influence in the Mideast; now an 'opportunity' made possible by Israel's violent progression toward the territory of their nemesis Syria.

“The administration has an irrational fear that talking is a sign of weakness," Russert told Rice. "Why not go to Syria and talk directly to the Syrians?"

Rice countered that there was an embassy in Syria, but failed to mention that the U.S. had withdrawn our ambassador there over the Hariri assassination months ago. "The problem isn’t talking to Syria," Rice answered, "The problem is that Syria doesn’t act when people talk to them."

What Rice means is that Syria, who had been invited in by the Lebanese as a buffer between warring parties, isn't acting in the U.S. interest. After the Hariri killing, Syria withdrew from Lebanon as they faced the blame and pressure of Lebanese outraged over the killing of their former prime minister. Now, in their rhetorical defense, Syria is expressing deep concern over the re-invasion of Lebanon and the prospect of an Israeli attack on their soil, and on their interests as well.

Syria offered a defense of Hizbollah and condemned the Israeli killings of Lebanese civilians in Qaa. Syria's information minister, Mohsen Bilal, called the slayings "a racist, fascist and terrorist act committed with American weapons" Walid Muallem, Syrian foreign minister, proclaimed that, "If Israel attacks Syria by any means, on the ground, in the air, our leadership ordered the armed forces to reply immediately."

Muallem described the 'agreement' reached between the U.S. and France, as a "prescription "for the continuation of the war. It's not fair for Lebanon, therefore it's a plan for the possibility of the eruption of civil war in Lebanon," he said, "and nobody, nobody, nobody has anything to gain from that happening, except Israel."

That's far from the provocation Rice pretends, and is every bit of how a regional nation would be expected to react to the continuing assault on Lebanon by Israel's occupying forces; in defense and with defiance against whoever threatens them. Rice's refusal to directly talk to the Syrians only serves to make them more defensive and more likely to decide that the U.S. has no interest in serving as anything other than Israel's protector and enabler. It seems absurd to the Syrians for Rice to complain about Syrian facilitation of Hizbollah when Israel is the beficiary of the money and military largess of their U.S. allies.

It's also an absurd notion that Syria should have no say in the 'peace' process as tens of thousands of refugees are pouring over their borders as they flee Israel's deadly airwar. At the very least, these refugees will have to have their needs addressed there. It seems that Syria is the only place where refugees have fled that they haven't been subject to Israel's missiles.

It's clear that most practical way to 'contain' Syria in this conflict would be to leave them alone; assure them that their country isn't a target of Israel's military. Making clear to Syria that Israel has no intention of attacking their territory would assure them that their country isn't going to become yet another 'opportunity' for Israel and the Bush regime to continue their bloody expansionism.
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. PNAC speak.
Same shitty "end justifies the means" mentality just as long as it fits neocon goals - which is to widen the conflict and draw in Syria and Iran. Doesn't matter how many people die and how much is destroyed. Evil.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Our problem is that Syria will oblige with a substantial defense.
at the very least we need to lessen their reliance on Hizbollah as their first line of defense against the potential of an Israeli assault. It's not just Israel's security that's at issue.
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bananarepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
19. What's Condi's vision for a new New Orleans? n/t
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CJCRANE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
2. Same crap she said about 9/11
being an opportunity.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. she did
". . . we have an opportunity and an obligation to move forward together. Bold and comprehensive changes are sometimes only possible in the wake of catastrophic events — — events which create a new consensus that allows us to transcend old ways of thinking and acting. Just as World War II led to a fundamental reorganization of our national defense structure and to the creation of the National Security Council, so has September 11th made possible sweeping changes in the ways we protect our homeland. "

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/08/terror/main610849.shtml
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QuestionAll... Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. what that when Barbara Boxer gave Condi whatfor? nt
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bananarepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #6
20. They are boldly declaring their hand in public! Amazing!!! n/t
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Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
3. cuase we really don't want Lebanon to turn into a democracy.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. especially when that 'democracy' isn't in line with the ambitions
of the Bush regime.
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OnionPatch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
4. It's BushAssBackWard World again!
Edited on Mon Aug-07-06 10:56 AM by OnionPatch
Everything in their world is spun as the opposite of the reality the rest of us see....Clear Skies, Healthy Forests, No Child Left Behind, "When we're talking about war, we're really talking about peace..." (GW Bush) Now the war in Lebanon is good.......:eyes:
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AZBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
9. Let's focus on a "new America" first. (nt)
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
10. final and link
Edited on Mon Aug-07-06 06:02 PM by bigtree
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. 'Moment of opportunity' yes, but only if US asks Israel the hard questions


By Sandy Tolan Mon Aug 7, 4:00 AM ET

BERKELEY, CALIF. -
President Bush says the horrific violence in Lebanon presents a "moment of opportunity" to solve the crisis in the Middle East. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice claims that the explosions represent merely the "birth pangs of a new Middle East." Both are correct, but, ironically, for reasons they could not have possibly imagined.

The Bush administration continues to cling to the fantasy that a peaceful, prosperous Middle East can be brought about through brute force and capitulation of the enemy. In this fantasy, a "new Middle East" will see the terrorists vanquished, replaced by a happy, pacified populace, embracing American-style democracy. Haven't we heard this before?

The irony of Dr. Rice's twisted "birth pangs" remark: She's right, but for the wrong reason. A new Middle East will surely emerge, but it is likely to be a place more unstable, more hostile to American influence, and more hateful of Israel than at any time since perhaps 1967. Far from weakening Hizbullah, itself a response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the brutal air war of 2006 is only laying the groundwork for future enemies to take comfort in their rage against the Jewish state. Who knows what new Hizbullah is rising from the dust, amid the survivors at Qana?

All Israel and the US have gained from this brutal pounding, and the deaths of hundreds of innocents, is increasing enmity and further isolation from the Arab world. Indeed, in their tacit and lonely support for Israel's bombing of Lebanese ambulances, homes, roads, airports, and state infrastructure, US officials have done the Jewish state no favors.

full article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060807/cm_csm/ytolan
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vixengrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
11. One doesn't pull flowers up by the roots to help them grow
and by the same token, encouraging change in a certain direction doesn't mean one will get what one is hoping for. This may especially be true if the nature of the changes is misunderstood. It seems, since the U.S. interest in a ceasefire and strong diplomatic intervention appears half-hearted, that there's some belief that they sides will "fight it out" and well, of course Israel will come out on top.

"The problem is that Syria doesn’t act when people talk to them." Telling. Because examining what Syria has to say--that is, listening instead of dictating, might be helpful here. This does not mean being dictated to, just trying to get a real picture of what is going on, to be prepared for the next move. And "nobody, nobody, nobody" benefiting from a civil war? Um, I think I recall as little as like, a year ago (okay, call it a year and a half) there were Syrian troops in Lebanon. Hmm.

Jus what about Syria and Iran? I don't think the hopes for a "new Middle East" have yet to show that practical response towards Syria--I think the US diplomacy strategy goes something like this: We don't take violence off the table. So where does that leave it--worst case scenario? The routes from Lebanon to Syria have been targeted, if Syria itself has not. Rice has made comments regarding the desire for Syria to stay out of it (all the while with the Arab street being aware that we back Israel). If Syria finds its way into this mess--is Iran, who is currently busying itself asserting a disregard for UN resolutions regarding a nuke program, far behind? We have what, now? 130,000 or so of our own troops in Iraq? Geographically, Iran's involvement would have them proceeding, where?

I think through Iraq, and when it happens, we are geographically too far away to have rapid response.

This is not necessarily a formula for positive change.

Just saying.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 06:59 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. very thoughtful comments vixengrl
Edited on Mon Aug-07-06 07:01 PM by bigtree
Iran and Syria are not the most tactful folks when it comes to responding to Israeli aggression. Iran seems to be itching for attention with their provocative statements. I think they may get that attention if they persist in their rhetoric.

But, Syria has a legitimate interest in restraining Israel's expansion into Lebanon and their advance toward Syrian territory. The missile strikes and military operations by Israel on Syria's border only increases Syria's understandable defensiveness.

I think that a 'peace' process that doesn't reach out to Syria and addresses their security concerns along with Israel's is doomed to fail. I think Syria will use Iran as an agitator against the US only so far as their own interests are served. Again, their border security would be their most pressing concern, their unstable economy would follow as another important concern. Their needs are not out of line with what we say we want for the region, security and prosperity. I don't see how Rice and Co. expect to ensure one country's without addressing the other's.

Thanks for your reply.
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
14. huh . . . . opportunity in the gaping jaws of hell..
I have run out of words for this harridan.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. haggard old beldame
worn-out jade of a horse
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 06:12 AM
Response to Reply #16
21. thank you
those are good...

Sad that our language has degraded to such an extent that we have to dredge archival seas to express this degree of disgust.
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 09:05 PM
Response to Original message
15. Ms. Rice, when people look back on the history of this cabal
they will be ashamed of us, the citizens, for not rising up and demanding your immediate resignations and demanding immediate elections.
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Nikki Stone 1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-07-06 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Is there some kind of petition on her yet?
Seriously.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. Critics taking aim at the Condi Rice show
Video: Times Online TV
CONDOLEEZZA RICE is coming under sustained criticism on several fronts.

Some, even within the White House, have started referring to the “Condi Rice show” — suggesting that the Secretary of State spends too much time on television talking to a domestic audience and not enough in international negotiations.

Richard Armitage, who was deputy to her predecessor, Colin Powell, has publicly attacked her for ignoring opportunities to negotiate with Syria. “We get a little lazy, I think, when we spend all our time as diplomats talking to our friends and not to our enemies,” he said.

There has also been criticism from the neo-conservative flank, which has appeared marginalised by Dr Rice’s emphasis on multilateral negotiations to settle the stand-off with Iran. William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, has accused the Administration of pursuing policies that had allowed North Korea to test missiles with impunity and that had left the regime in Tehran “sitting pretty”.

The British Government remains a staunch admirer of Dr Rice’s hard-headed moderation, however. Mr Blair and Dr Rice believe that the crisis could yet help revive the Middle East peace process — provided Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority President, can emerge with their authority intact and are not undermined or replaced by extremists.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2302126,00.html
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
22. "They provoke 'old' Mideast to new and more pernicious means of defense"
Hezbollah Wages New Generation Of Warfare

Some experts call it "modern warfare," some call it "unconventional conflict" and others use technical terms such as "netwar" or "fourth-generation warfare."

The definitions differ, but all refer generally to conflict in which small, decentralized, nonstate groups can turn the advantages of large national armies - overwhelming firepower, high technology, a clear hierarchy of command - into disadvantages, and in which winning political and public relations victories matters more than counting casualties and bombing sorties.

Elements of that kind of war have been part of conflict since antiquity, but most experts say they moved to the fore in the Iraq war - and even more so in the current Lebanon conflict.

"It's both a conventional and an unconventional conflict. It has aspects of both," said Army Special Forces Lt. Col. James Gavrilis, an expert in counterinsurgency tactics. "It includes both state actors and nonstate actors - it pretty much has everything."

"Winning" and "losing" can mean far different things from the familiar imagery of swords surrendered and treaties signed. In modern warfare theory, the difference between strategic and tactical victories is crucial.

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17024242&BRD=1994&PAG=461&dept_id=226369&rfi=6
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
23.  The price of not talking to Syria's Assad
New York Times
TUESDAY, AUGUST 8, 2006

When asked Monday why the United States isn't talking with Syria about the Lebanon crisis, President George W. Bush replied, "Syria knows what we think." That may be. But Syria is also unlikely to even consider doing what Bush wants - rein in Hezbollah and help halt the killing in Lebanon and Israel - unless its leaders know what potential rewards as well as punishments await them. And for that, the United States needs to offer a serious high-level discussion with Syria, and it needs to do it now.

Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, is brutal, dishonest and less than competent. But he may also be more vulnerable to outside pressure, and inducements, than Hezbollah's other patron, Iran. Driving even the thinnest wedge between Syria and Iran would be a diplomatic breakthrough for a White House badly in need of breakthroughs. Even if the United States and France manage to pry a resolution out of the UN Security Council, unless Hezbollah is constrained there is little chance of actually deploying an international peacekeeping force, regaining Lebanon's sovereignty and building a stable peace.

Bush has always seen talking, by itself, as a reward. As a result, U.S. diplomats have been barred from serious contact with a host of dangerous characters from Pyongyang to Tehran to Damascus. That cold shoulder may have made Bush feel righteous, but it hasn't done anything to choke off nuclear programs in Iran or North Korea. And it's not likely to persuade Syria to cut off shipments of rockets to Hezbollah, or accept international monitors on its border, or oust Iraqi Baathist financiers from Damascus - or any of the other things the White House wants Syria to do but refuses even to discuss with its leaders.

That's not appeasement. That's negotiation. No one is suggesting Bush give away the store. At a minimum, however, Bush will have to start with a clear signal that what America wants is a change in Syria's conduct, not the overthrow of its regime.

full editorial: http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2006/08/08/opinion/edsyria.php
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