Israel's Looming Defeat: By Larry Johnson

[kpete]

Israel's Looming Defeat
by

Larry Johnson

................

Israel is in trouble and it is time for the Bush Administration to throw the neo-con crazies out of the White House and the Defense Department and embark on a diplomatic effort to keep Israel's military intact. Otherwise, the Israeli Army is likely to break itself on the hills of southern Lebanon and the United States will not be able to do anything other than express regret. We have our own "turd in the punchbowl" to wrestle in Iraq. Meanwhile, Hizbullah stands a good chance of expanding its influence and power, not just in the region, but throughout the Arab and Muslim world. Let's remember, it ain't just Americans who love a winner.

much more at:
http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/08/israels_looming.html

[stepnw1f]

1. No Good Will Come of the ME Violence

good post.

[Selatius]

2. Israel was foolish to dismember Lebanon's civilian infrastructure

There's an environmental disaster now unfolding on top of the civilian infrastructure that was methodically destroyed by Israel.

Israel has done nothing but make Hezbollah stronger by going way overboard.

[leveymg]

3. The IDF already missed its chance for a quick knockout

that would have had the desired "shock and awe" effect.

Maybe that's just not how things are going to work out for technologically-dominant powers in future asymetrical wars. If you can survive the initial onslaught, and even inflict serious losses with some combination of anti-tank, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, even a vastly outgunned defender still has a good chance of eventual victory.

I believe the key to this is the political illegitimacy of recent invasions. The defenders can keep the support of the local population despite terrible punitive measures by the invading superior military. Meanwhile, public opinion won't long support aggressive preemptive wars, as a result, the invading country's forces don't really fight as effectively as they should be able to on paper.

Perhaps, the future belongs to the guerilla, after all. Likudite Israel now joins BushCon America and the former Soviet Union inside the Paper Tiger cage.

[Tesha]

14. Didn't the formation of Israel itself make that point in '49?

> Perhaps, the future belongs to the guerilla, after all.

Didn't the formation of Israel itself make that point in '49?
Were the Zionists of that day not fighting a guerilla war using
techniques that would now be deemed "terroristic"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing



Tesha

[leveymg]

15. The difference between a terrorist and Prime Minister

is 25 years.

Add another 25 years and the lessons of youth are completely forgotten.

[Dhalgren]

4. Jesus! Great commentary by Johnson.

"Israel was entering a bar fight without taking stock of who was in the bar." This is what is completely unexplained by anyone I have read or heard, so far. How could Israel have been so poorly informed as to Hezbollah's abilities, strength, and power? Why did the Israelis not know who they were attacking? They seemed to think that Hezbollah was Hammas or the Palestinian stone-throwers, or even the Jordanian army of the 1960s - not the "well trained, disciplined army" that they are now facing. That still needs to be explained...

[DemReadingDU]

6. that was an excellent analogy by L.J.

I love reading Larry Johnson's blog, he always has great analysis!

http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/


K&R

[Cassandra]

8. I have a Coptic Christian friend from Egypt...

who is just astonished at how lame the Mossad's intelligence was on this. Maybe the neocons there have been screwing around with the intelligence the same way as here.

[Robbien]

9. I wonder if Israel is using the same intelligence as the US

Come on the US intelligence thinks Cuba is going to fall when Castro dies. How idiotic is that? They thought Iraq would give us rose petals when we invaded their country.

Bombs do not kill a movement.

[Oilwellian]

17. Actually....

the only "intelligence" that believed Iraqis would throw flowers and candy at our troops were those in the Office of Special Plans who were parroting Curveball and Chalabi. Our REAL intelligence agencies were warning Bush NOT to invade Iraq.

[MissWaverly]

18. remember who was sharing NSA information with them

HMMMMMM!!!!!

I think it was a neocon squeeze play that did not pan out all tricked up with appropriate
intelligence, Curveball must be putting in a lot of overtime now.

5. Johnson seems to think Bush even cares about Israel

I don't think so.

[leveymg]

16. The question is: do Bush and the neocons even care about America?

I'm increasingly of the opinion that the answer to that lies in the peculiar divided loyalties of the neocons who hold management slots within the foreign policy apparatus (we all know what they want and what they serve), and how that diverges from the agenda of the multinational oil cartels and banking interests who really call the shots for this Administration.

I would say both the U.S. and Israel are viwed by the latter group as liabilities at this point, and the multinationals would really rather see both restructured and liquidated at this point. If one were of the school that there really are few real accidents, one might think that both Governments are in self-destruct mode, and that serves someone's business interest.

[Skidmore]

7. That's what happens when you have religious zealots

wielding power in ever nation with sophisticated arsenals.

[daydreamer]

10. More land after each war. I wouldn't call it trouble.

http://www.chomsky.info/interviews/20060804.htm

[endarkenment]

11. The blowback:

"Some will say that Hizbullah's army is not a "national force." They will say that it is merely a cats-paw of the Iranians and the Syrians. They will say that the money and the equipment are Iranian. This is all true, but the polling today in Lebanon indicates that the Lebanese (both Christian and Muslim) believe Hizbullah's army to be a national force. I would welcome comments in regard to that polling.

I think that the Lebanese/Israeli war is pounding the "arch" of Lebanese society with a hammer, driving the "keystone" into the arch and tightening the fabric of cohesive national resistance to Israel. That keystone is now painted with a yellow flag."

In its attempt to exterminate Hezbollah the Israeli government's policies are having the opposite effect.

[ananda]

12. But, in order to throw neocon crazies..

.. out, BushInc would have to throw itself out.

Sounds good to me...

[Dhalgren]

13. That's where Johnson drops the ball, IMO. He seems to not

realize that there are no members of the Bush administration who are not "Neocons". Even if any one of them is not a "card-carrying" member, they are all "fellow-travelers"...

[Phrogman]

19. Israel mistakenly thought Iran and/or Syria would have openly joined

the fighting by now. And the US would be throwing its full force into the frey.

I'm sure the Israeli planners are quite nervous they they haven't taken the bait.

Expect a ramp-up of atrocities by Israel.

[cali]

20. I don't see that

and I don't see you basing it on anything solid.