Hurricane Alley seems rather benign..(a good thing for a change)

[SoCalDem]

More at

[jobycom]

1. By this time last year, there were nine name storms

Three hurricanes, and one that would become a hurricane soon after.

We've had three tropical storms this year.

[OwnedByFerrets]

2. There is still a long way to go.

Before Katrina, I didn't worry too much when a storm came into the Gulf. Yes, I always prepared our home and bought supplies, but I didn't spend time worrying. Katrina changed that. I worry about every little wind that stirs itself into the GOM now. I dont think that will change soon.

[jobycom]

6. There as a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 before Katrina.

Those were warning signs that the Gulf was primed. There aren't those signs right now.

Then again, Camille was the third of that season, and it hit in mid August. So yeah, you're right about not taking anything for granted.

[Aviation Pro]

9. That was Dennis....

....and it followed a similar track as Ivan the year before.

[Aviation Pro]

3. However....

...this is due to cyclonic activity at the 300mb level and not to a lack of "table setters" at the lower pressure levels. Also, one item is problematic, hurricanes are the "big fans" of the atmosphere, they literally cool things down within the airmasses that they interact with. There have been a few observations recently which show that without the cooling effect of tropical cyclones, the normal dissapation of daytime radiation (nocturnal cooling) is not taking place. Thus you have abnormally high night temperatures over North America this year which will lead to even higher daytime temperatures (and in a long range forecast abnormally warm temperatures this winter).

There are a number of manifestations, all bad, that can occur from this.

[greenman3610]

4. like what?

[Aviation Pro]

5. Don't know....

...since there's nothing in the historical climatology that points to the effects, just speculation.

[jobycom]

7. Question

Since there aren't a number of smaller hurricanes to fan away the heat, does that mean a later storm could be worse because of excess heat, or does the heat just dissipate into these bad manifestations you are describing?

[Aviation Pro]

8. There is a lot of energy stored in the Atlantic and Gulf....

...right now. A storm under the right conditions could become a monster if it ends up in the warmer waters (think Wilma). You are correct in your second assumption as eventually the should dissipate as the seasons change (the typical cooling that occurs as sunlight becomes less direct), however, following the laws of thermodynamics, if the cooling effects of this winter are somewhat diminished (global warming which raises the height of the atmosphere and prevents the polar jet stream from bringing Continental Polar air into N. America) then the effects could be profound.