Hurricane Chris Strength Predictions?

[SammyBlue]

It is a strong tropical storm now and is relatively stationary. The NOAA and the NWS has it following Katrina's path of going between Cuba and the Keys. So, what strength do you think it will hit when it gets to the extremely warm Gulf of Mexico.

Here is the Saffir/Simpson Scale

Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category 1
74-95 mph (64-82 kt) 4-5 ft Storm surge
No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.

Category 2
96-110 mph (83-95 kt) 6-8 ft Storm Surge
Some roofing material, door, and window damage. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, etc. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings.

Category 3
111-130 mph (96-113 kt) 9-12 ft Storm Surge
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

Category 4
131-155 mph (114-135 kt) 13-18 ft Storm Surge
More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

Category 5
155 mph+ (135+ kt) 18 ft+ Storm Surge
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.

[Catchawave]

1. My vote is no offense to my son Chris.....

...who would love to bar hop in the Caribbean for a week, then show up for work hung-over in Miami for his fed jobber......heh....definitely a Cat 1 :hi:

[Junkdrawer]

2. Funny thing is that the Gulf waters aren't that warm this year yet....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1798055&mesg_id=1798785

[Mabus]

3. What's going on west of Chris

Check out the ICAO Area B1 images at http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/ It looks like a storm has formed west of Chris, close to the Yucatan.

[Catchawave]

5. Weren't Katrina/Rita/Wilma....

..the end of Aug thru Oct last year...I remember Southwest Airlines cancelling my trip for Halloween to Ft. Lauderdale...which was two months after Katrina.

Chris may sputter up the East Coast w/the Gulf Stream ??

[tinfoilinfor2005]

6. We've had a lot of rain this summer.

I think storms keep the water stirred up and a little cooler. Last year it was so bloody dry and still, the water just kept getting hotter.

[SmokingJacket]

8. And the east coast hasn't been all that hot this year, until now.

Might be a late hurricane season, as happens sometimes.

[William769]

10. 85 degrees is pretty warm if you ask me.

[Dr.Phool]

11. 88-89 Degrees off Clearwater Beach already

That's warm.

[Junkdrawer]

12. That SST map shows hot spots near the coasts...

Last year it was hot in the central gulf. Perhaps we may see storms rapidly intensify as they hit like Charley did year before last.

[Mabus]

14. check out the ssts from July 2005 and July 2006

First the weekly composite from the last full week of July 2005:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/GOES-comps/WEEKCOMP/2005-07/g12%2E050726%2Eweekcomp%2Esst%2Estorm%2Ecl%2Egif

And the weekly composite of the last full week of July 2006:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/GOES-comps/WEEKCOMP/2006-07/g12%2E060725%2Eweekcomp%2Esst%2Estorm%2Ecl%2Egif

[Junkdrawer]

15. Thanks. The "SSTs are lower this year" claim comes from Roger Pielke Sr...

I did some research, and I'm not sure I want to tie my wagon to that star....

[Lost-in-FL]

4. Damn I HATE this season!!

I HATE Hurricanes!!! They make my stomach sick. :puke:

:scared: :scared: :scared:

[cobalt1999]

7. weak Tropical Storm or dissipates

Too much wind shear and dry air north of it.

[Lost-in-FL]

9. I wouldn't call a Cat III weak at all...

[SPKrazy]

13. It's Hot As Hell

it's stationary and building

it's moving to warmer waters

it's gonna be a blowout if it isn't steered north by the cold front draping across the US now

the fact that there is so much hot air in place over the southern US doesn't bode well for the front making it far enough to have a steering effect on the storm

[Bluebear]

16. 'unlikely to be come a hurricane'

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - Tropical Storm Chris rapidly ran out of steam Thursday morning as it pushed across the eastern Caribbean, prompting forecasters to say it was unlikely to become a hurricane.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060803/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather