A 2008 poll: I had no idea it's this bad

[johan helge]

From http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc :

CNN Poll June 1-6, 2006:

Explanation of the numbers below (percentages):

Definitely Vote For
Might Consider
(Sum of Definitely Vote For and Might Consider)
Definitely Not Vote For


Hillary Rodham Clinton
22
28
(50)
47

Al Gore
17
32
(49)
48

John Kerry
14
35
(49)
47

Rudolph Giuliani
19
45
(64)
30

John McCain
12
48
(60)
34

Jeb Bush
9
26
(35)
63



I'm shocked (FYI - I'm Norwegian). The only thing the voters seem to have learnt fromt these last years is - vote for a Repub (as long as his name is not Bush)? What?! I feel sick.

[ThomWV]

1. Its Not Democrat vs. Republican, Its Hillary

The problem is Hillary, not that the republic is stuck on Republicans.

[demosincebirth]

6. Yup, she's a polarizing figure. And if she is the '08 nominee

we'll have another repug in office.

[mom cat]

11. But look at the scores for Kerry and Gore. We don't have a winner.

[blm]

16. It never works like that - people haven't had these men out there debating

and laying out their plans on a regular basis. The media certainly hasn't presented any Democrat in a positive light for a decade. It takes the presidential debates for the American people to compare the Dem and the GOP as unfiltered as they can get.

Polls like this are meaningless - in 1999 these polls showed Elizabeth Dole would beat Al Gore by 8 pts.

[johan helge]

2. It must be something with the US media -

- my impression is that in Europe everyone knows that Bush & Co (meaning Repubs, not only Repubs with the name Bush .....) are worthless.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. Yes, that's it

these poll figures are more a reflection of the media attention, good and bad, towards these people.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. I don't understand this, either

The economy is the pits, we are less safe than we ever were before, our tax dollars are being used to feather the nests of the rich. All I can say is that it is early, and these polls aren't really worth much right now.

[Extend a Hand]

5. that ruined my day

[CrispyQ]

7. Very depressing.

My repuke mother has told me that she will not vote in '08, unless:

Hillary runs -- she will vote against her;
Giuliani runs -- she will vote for him.

:eyes:

[napi21]

8. There's a problem with that survey.

It only lists the 2 Dem former candidates and 1 who certainly has the most name recognition. I don't see any results on say John Edwards, Mark Warner, or any of the other potential Dem candidates.

I also don't see Allen, Brownback or any of the other Pubs who we all know are running.

The other thing is that it's really way too arly to be putting any belief in a poll like this right now. I personally have likes and dislikes for every candidate who's appeared so far, so I need to wait and see how they actually run their campaign, what they say, and how they act.

[Emit]

13. And I do not see anywhere at the link whether it was weighted

toward Republicans or Democrats, Non-Partisans, etc. It says random voters, but were equal number of random voters contacted?

[diamidue]

24. Mark Warner

Mark Warner certainly has the blessings of the secretive Bilderberg Group who have a mysterious knack of picking Democratic candidates in advance. I think polls matter little. Could be the fix is already in.

[wisteria]

26. Well, I hope if there is a fix, it isn't in favor of Warner. We need

a President with experience, not one that has to learn on the job.

[Hamlette]

9. Bill Clinton didn't poll so well in 1990 either

there is time. . .

[davidwparker]

10. You haven't figured out that most of the USA is a bunch of sheep?

Ignorance abounds here. Lazy. Stupid. Fat. We handed our country over to the facists not with a bang, but a whimper.

[porphyrian]

12. It's a trick, get an axe.

This is just another instance of the republicans trying to frame who will be the Presidential candidates in 2008. There's nothing to see here. Move along.

[HarveyBrooks]

14. What - are you all kidding?

First of all, 2 years is a lifetime in politics.
I've always been kind of a political junkie but 2 yrs before their first presidential campaigns I really don't think I had even HEARD of Bill Clinton or Howard Dean or Jimmy Carter or even saint ronnie with all his crap movies.

B. Hypothetical matchups 2 years out between Hillary Clinton and John McCain (or whoever) with all the turmoil and unpredictability of georgies' little adventure raging & before we know if enough Dems can take control of Congress to start fixing some of georgies' screwups, are kind of, well...dumb.

3. Other than the imaginary match-ups, most of the numbers (IMHO the important ones) look pretty good to me:

"Now thinking ahead to the next presidential election in November 2008: In general, would you rather see a Republican or a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008?" Options rotated

-ALL adults Republican 31% Democrat 50% Other 2% Unsure 17%

"Looking ahead to the next presidential election, would you like to see a president who offers policies and programs similar to those of the Bush Administration, or would you like to see a president who offers different policies and programs?"

Similar 23% Different 70% Unsure 7%

"Thinking ahead to the 2008 presidential election, would you like the next president to be similar to George W. Bush in terms of policies and programs, or someone who is completely different?"

Similar To Bush 36% Completely Different 60%

[SensibleAmerican]

23. This is exactly what y'all said in 2000

You pointed to fundamentals and said Gore will win in a walk. Guess what, it didn't happen.

[Dark]

15. I can't believe people would vote for Guiliani. He's only been a mayor n/t

[dorkulon]

17. Goes to show how superficial people are.

Guiliani just happened to be there when 9/11 happened, and didn't wet himself. That's the long and the short of it.

This poll reflects how effective the GOP smear machine really is, and how the MSM does nothing to counteract it.

Luckily, Guiliani is way too socially liberal for the rank and file Republinazis. So's McCain for that matter. I hope Frist gets the nom, because I really don't see him winning.

[dorkulon]

18. Look at this one:

It's strange--"unnamed Democrat" is way ahead, but give them a name and they're losing. I think it's a testament to the character assassination tactics of the right. (swift boat, etc.)

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 11-12, 2006. N=1,007 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).


"Now thinking ahead to the next presidential election in November 2008: In general, would you rather see a Republican or a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008?"

..........Republican Democrat Other Unsure

ALL adults 31 50 2 17
Republicans 84 3 1 12
Democrats 1 91 0 8
Independents 24 45 3 28

[Justice Is Comin]

19. You can bet your bottom dollar

if Gore is pulled into running--whether he does it by choice or is pressured into it--the polls will soar in favorability to elect him.

Juliani and McCain will be a joke compared to his background and proposals. Let alone the fact, he was already elected president once.

[mccormack98]

20. The "definitely not vote for" number is screwed

The "Definitely Not Vote For" numbers for Hillary, Gore and Kerry probably comes from:

1) independents and democrats who can't stand Hillary, Gore and Kerry and would vote for a Republican before voting for those guys. This group is composed of people referred to by pollsters as "Stupid people."

2) independents and democrats who would prefer to see other democrats run in the general election

Does group #2 vote democratic or republican in the General Election? You can't tell.

The pollster should have asked "If the election were tomorrow, and the candidates were Al Gore (or whoever) and a John McCain, who'd you vote for?"

[SmokingJacket]

21. It's early days.

Time for a Dem no one's thought of yet to come out of nowhere and win.

It's important to stay optimistic.

[SensibleAmerican]

22. Sad thing is that we're jumping up and down over some approval polls

But this is where the battle is ... right here.

Giuliani or McCain win in a walk if the election is held today. McCain wins 47 of the 50 states if the election is held today, losing the tri-state area only. Giuliani wins the tri-state area, but loses New England.

[wisteria]

25. Don't fret. These polls at this point are mostly name recognition.

I am reminded of a Dylan song with the lyrics, "the loser now will soon be the winner, for the times they are a-changing".